Believe it or not, Santa visited us last week- did he get his timing wrong? Santa Claus rally is meant to be between December 26 and 31. But he too decided to do it early. To my mind a rally from 13100 to 13600 + is a respectable santa rally. Lets not be too greedy. But S&P at 1496 seems to be ready to break out above 1500 so may as well be greedy. I will hang in there till the rally. Sell some of my winners. INFY from 40 to 46 made some money- am sellin half my position. YGE my sole solar play that had a roller coaster from 31 to 39 - all the way back to 26 or so... is now at 40. Having held through the ride- am selling half my position at 40. Though the chances of it going to 50 before 30 are more- technically and sentimentally- fundamentally, well solar defies that for now, so am not lookin at the earnings for now. JWN- am sellin from 34 to 37... not much but in the retail volatility I will take 3 bucks any day. Switching to COH at 31- makes sense- Buying a beaten down stock and waiting for it to rise is a good trading idea.
Financials- Citi and Bank of America holding on as they have not moved much- from our price of 31 and 41. Am thinking of adding Mer. Lynch... with the foreign infusion- a price of 53 looks good to me. Forgot to mention, during my absence WM- got stop lossed at 17. Its languishing and am not going to buy it back. I prefer Citi and BAC to be safer. FRE will start its recovery this week- maybe we get 35 and hope for more as we are in at 31.
RETAIL- am afraid things are not working out. TGT says sales-a-slowin... uh oh. Long term I still like TGT- am in at 51 and am putting order in to buy at 45- which is a far cry but who knows- a slide in retail- may get us there. As I said above, COH at 31 looks good- all is discounted- brands like Coach will survive.
In global territory, INDIA zoomed ahead 600 points in a day ahead of Christmas... when Indians welcome Christmas more furiously than they do Diwali, trust me, the sentiment is bullish all the way. And have the tables turned... where the dow follows the sensexes and shangais of the world... then we are in for a green end to 2007!
MERRY CHRISTMAS... and THANKS for reading. Mona's aplogies for not bloggin every day- will be back with a blog-a-day next year. Meanwhile happy trading, dont miss out the last 4 days of trading- they tend to make a lot of money- following Santa's happy trail.
Stay tuned as my crystal ball looks for more... tips and thoughts to share with ya.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Monday, December 17, 2007
Throwing in the towel?
Not a chance. We took a long break on monas madmarket. Apologies to my readers who are few and far between still loyally following my tips. Fed spoke and fed cut on December 11 and the market was unhappy and dissatisfied. They cut rate by 25 basis though the market was expecting 50 basis. The statement did not say anything about future rate cuts. So its going to be a down market until the January meeting. Its as simple as that. And for us its time to buy on these deadly dips. Last week when the housing and finance stocks broke out - I did manage to sell DHI at 14.7 and KBH at 25 for a good profit. Citi sold again at 35. Bought some Citi at 31 -unbelievable- nothings changed and we got a good buying opportunity. Am adding Bank of America at 41- looks like the sky is falling... thats when we buy. COH and TGT on the retail side look good. Recession is priced into retail... COH at 33 and TGT at 51 are good for trades. EBAY -the online auctioneer -looks good at 32. Wow this market is a trader paradise.
Maybe the market rallied too far too fast- and so the decline is furious as well. We will watch for DOW 13000 once more- it will hold and we are off again for the rest-of-the- year-end-rally. The markets world over are falling freely too- Indian sensex fell 700 + points the 2nd worst decline- nothin to do with fudnamentals- just went up too fast - once it corrects- 10% it will be off to a new start- again. Got to like the volatility but also got to be brave and hang in there. Thank God for the selling we do so we are ready to buy when opportunities like this come by.
Stay tuned and nibble at financials is my word for today. Citi at 31 and BAC at 41-42 to start with and FREDDIE MAC- at 31 are bargains in my view- ! I also like LOW at 22 - for a longer term- sure target of 30... and shorter term 25 is easy once the market settles down to a better trading range. Wait for the DOW to hold support at 13000 and S& P around 1400... NASDAQ is ready to go from here 2570 or so... ! Whats to not buy- recession is priced in too....
Maybe the market rallied too far too fast- and so the decline is furious as well. We will watch for DOW 13000 once more- it will hold and we are off again for the rest-of-the- year-end-rally. The markets world over are falling freely too- Indian sensex fell 700 + points the 2nd worst decline- nothin to do with fudnamentals- just went up too fast - once it corrects- 10% it will be off to a new start- again. Got to like the volatility but also got to be brave and hang in there. Thank God for the selling we do so we are ready to buy when opportunities like this come by.
Stay tuned and nibble at financials is my word for today. Citi at 31 and BAC at 41-42 to start with and FREDDIE MAC- at 31 are bargains in my view- ! I also like LOW at 22 - for a longer term- sure target of 30... and shorter term 25 is easy once the market settles down to a better trading range. Wait for the DOW to hold support at 13000 and S& P around 1400... NASDAQ is ready to go from here 2570 or so... ! Whats to not buy- recession is priced in too....
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
LACKs LUSTRE ... till FED MEETs
Yawn... nothin spectacular. No major opportunity. We are consolidating and digesting the recent gains ere we move again- higher if the Fed cuts next week. We are sticking to the financials- Citi and Washington Mutual. Am adding some more WM at 18.30- got to time it well. Target price low 20s is good for me. Technology sector is still waiting for catalysts. Some of the valuations seem good enough to pull the trigger. We are in BRCM, NTAP, VCLK- and OVTI.
Freddie Mac made good money for us- from 31 to 35. Today got a chance to buy again at 31- very easy to buy the second time as we know when it bounces back it goes at least to 35. That makes a good trade. So we are in there. Theres no reason for it to trade down so much. Just profit taking by those who got in last week at much lower prices. This and Fannie Mae were crushed too badly in my opinion and are buys.
On the mortgage front, the word is that they are trying to bail out the unfortunate homeowners who may suffer a foreclosure- by freezin the rates on the adjustable mortgage which means that those who can afford their current mortgage rates will not have to give up their homes.
If such proposals have seriously started flowing, to my mind something will work out and its positive news. The reaction to such news I thought would be more spectacular. Homebuilders and banks are a buy in my opinion. I would say not just for a trade, for a longer term 2008 will be kinder to homebuilders. Am looking for home prices to fall further and then bargain hunters and home buyers do come in and finally buy instead of renting. Demand picks up and things start looking better- hope springs eternal in Mona's world. IN KBH at 19 and 21. Its 20.4 today. In DHI at average price of 12. Its about 12.20.
Thats it for now... employment numbers comin up this week- a low number would only prompt the fed to ease rates next week- so bad news will be good news. We will see.
Volatility is low again. We retested the August lows. Going into the end of the year, stocks look like a good place to be. So hang in there.
Freddie Mac made good money for us- from 31 to 35. Today got a chance to buy again at 31- very easy to buy the second time as we know when it bounces back it goes at least to 35. That makes a good trade. So we are in there. Theres no reason for it to trade down so much. Just profit taking by those who got in last week at much lower prices. This and Fannie Mae were crushed too badly in my opinion and are buys.
On the mortgage front, the word is that they are trying to bail out the unfortunate homeowners who may suffer a foreclosure- by freezin the rates on the adjustable mortgage which means that those who can afford their current mortgage rates will not have to give up their homes.
If such proposals have seriously started flowing, to my mind something will work out and its positive news. The reaction to such news I thought would be more spectacular. Homebuilders and banks are a buy in my opinion. I would say not just for a trade, for a longer term 2008 will be kinder to homebuilders. Am looking for home prices to fall further and then bargain hunters and home buyers do come in and finally buy instead of renting. Demand picks up and things start looking better- hope springs eternal in Mona's world. IN KBH at 19 and 21. Its 20.4 today. In DHI at average price of 12. Its about 12.20.
Thats it for now... employment numbers comin up this week- a low number would only prompt the fed to ease rates next week- so bad news will be good news. We will see.
Volatility is low again. We retested the August lows. Going into the end of the year, stocks look like a good place to be. So hang in there.
Friday, November 30, 2007
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...
We got lucky as we timed the finance sector bottom, at least for the time being. BUYING Citigroup below 30 when others were yawning, was profitable. Better still, gettin into FNM and FRE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) yesterday at 29.50 and 31.7 - was excellent timing. Both are up almost 4 bucks today. WM, Washington Mutual at 17.5- was a steal yesterday- its trading at 20 today. What happened? Fed SPOKE and he spoke for a rate cut- and more- thats what the interpretation of his terminology says.
Meanwhile technology is down- is it the Dell effect? To my mind Dell's earnings should be a non-event. ITs out of favor with the consumer. If Hewlett or Apple stumbled on their numbers would run for the gates. So technology is a BUY- am holding onto all my tech names. OVTI - the company that provides camera sensor chips for mobiles raised its guidance for the next quarter and the stock was up to 20 in early trading but is down to 18 and change. It looks good so am buying some here for a quick trade. As technology picks up for the year end hallelujah... this one will run up. The Indian infotech giant, INFOSYS is just about beginning its bounce. We are in at 39 and 41...! The currency effect of a strong rupee seems to be discounted. A targt of 50 seems do-able, I will take 49!
Homebuilders are up from the bottom. Finally someone noticed the falling knife is on the floor and picked it up. To my mind holding onto our KBH and DHI will be worthwhile. ALL the possible negativity is in there. Bargain hunters will rush to buy once the fed eases and finance becomes so to say cheaper.
I bought some puts on XOM as oil looks like going down from here but XOM is still strong at 89 or so. Some January $80 puts at a buck a piece look good for a trade if oil begins its sojourn to $85 next week. The crystal ball is crystal clear so far- and I am happy to bring the right trades at the right time... Hope you benefit as much as I do.
Meanwhile technology is down- is it the Dell effect? To my mind Dell's earnings should be a non-event. ITs out of favor with the consumer. If Hewlett or Apple stumbled on their numbers would run for the gates. So technology is a BUY- am holding onto all my tech names. OVTI - the company that provides camera sensor chips for mobiles raised its guidance for the next quarter and the stock was up to 20 in early trading but is down to 18 and change. It looks good so am buying some here for a quick trade. As technology picks up for the year end hallelujah... this one will run up. The Indian infotech giant, INFOSYS is just about beginning its bounce. We are in at 39 and 41...! The currency effect of a strong rupee seems to be discounted. A targt of 50 seems do-able, I will take 49!
Homebuilders are up from the bottom. Finally someone noticed the falling knife is on the floor and picked it up. To my mind holding onto our KBH and DHI will be worthwhile. ALL the possible negativity is in there. Bargain hunters will rush to buy once the fed eases and finance becomes so to say cheaper.
I bought some puts on XOM as oil looks like going down from here but XOM is still strong at 89 or so. Some January $80 puts at a buck a piece look good for a trade if oil begins its sojourn to $85 next week. The crystal ball is crystal clear so far- and I am happy to bring the right trades at the right time... Hope you benefit as much as I do.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
BOTTOM is in sight
Bulls stampede success is what I call it. Also the bears covering their shorts helped carry the rally to a mind boggling best in 5 year point gain for the DOW. Up triple digit -3 times... 330 somethin. We had a good day, to say the least. My fantasy of a triple digit for the Nasdaq did not quite materialize but I was more than happy with a 80+ gain on it. S&P crossed 1450 once more- sufficeth to lead us to more gains in the comin weeks as technicals look better. And the bottom sure looks like its far away and conquered.
May I not get carried away to much by the bullish moves. I would rather carefully calibrate the next few trades to preserve the money we made and make more in the next trade. Am watching for now and happy with my current positions in BRCM, NTAP, GLW, VCLK, INFY for technology. The high fliers - AAPL, RIMM and GOOG certainly were good trades but in mona's market we are wary of double digit losses that can tempt us to take losses and miss the subsequent bull run if it occurs. We are content as you may have observed to buy fundamentally good companies that have been beat down- we identify the trading range in such stocks and buy at the lower end and sell at the higher end.
Forgot to mention Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that have been beaten down to pulp -too fast. I am placing an order to buy a small position in - FRE at 29 and FNM at 31 a bit below where they are trading now. Washington Mutual - at 17.5- is another addition. Risky only because of the crushed sentiment. But overall if the FED chairman, Berny behaves himself this evening when he `speaks' again (tis an overkill these days...hearing him speak) - financials and housing stocks have got to bounce back to respectable levels.
Bears beware, the bulls will take us to new heights if I can believe that, you got to, too! Grunt! Grunt!
May I not get carried away to much by the bullish moves. I would rather carefully calibrate the next few trades to preserve the money we made and make more in the next trade. Am watching for now and happy with my current positions in BRCM, NTAP, GLW, VCLK, INFY for technology. The high fliers - AAPL, RIMM and GOOG certainly were good trades but in mona's market we are wary of double digit losses that can tempt us to take losses and miss the subsequent bull run if it occurs. We are content as you may have observed to buy fundamentally good companies that have been beat down- we identify the trading range in such stocks and buy at the lower end and sell at the higher end.
Forgot to mention Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that have been beaten down to pulp -too fast. I am placing an order to buy a small position in - FRE at 29 and FNM at 31 a bit below where they are trading now. Washington Mutual - at 17.5- is another addition. Risky only because of the crushed sentiment. But overall if the FED chairman, Berny behaves himself this evening when he `speaks' again (tis an overkill these days...hearing him speak) - financials and housing stocks have got to bounce back to respectable levels.
Bears beware, the bulls will take us to new heights if I can believe that, you got to, too! Grunt! Grunt!
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
"CAPITAL IS NOT SCARCE-VISION IS"
GRUNT... grunt... make way for the bulls. I hear a stampede.
I was wondering what the catalyst would be if not Citigroup- to send the markets soaring after a larger than warranted swoon last week. I certainly put my money into CITI at 29.85 - it was the last chance to get into the stock at such depressed levels. Its up to 32.50 already this morning as the confused investors/bargain hunters/bulls start digesting the fact that the ABU DHABI infusion of funds into the compnay is POSITIVE news.
There is some more sense that the Fed will cut rates again in December- based on comments by a `top Fed official' to that effect. We cant put a gun to his head if the Fed does not cut rates... but for now the market gets a positive comment and reacts fast and furiously before someone distorts the hope.
The mantra for me as a trader is sell on a rally. Not because we will revisit the 12800 on the DOW anytime soon... thats over and done with. But because we are in the money in some stocks too fast. EBAY in at 31- on Monday. A 3 buck rally is enough for me as a trader. Will rotate into JWN- at 34. I believe JWN (Nordstrum) goes closer to 40 and not 30 as we proceed to the year end.
Look for a triple digit rally into the close today- I am boldly saying the reversal is here to stay- we shall not collapse at the end of the day as we have on many occasions last week. And that will spur momentum on the upside... thank heavens... for a change. Oh we already have a triple digit rally- I was referring to a triple digit rally in the NASDAQ (tongue in cheek)- too much optimism will get me into trouble but who cares... I am no Jim Cramer - no one reads my blog anyway.
I am spotting bottoms in some stocks. LOWES looks good at 23- for one. Housing stocks- am afraid to repeat -they have bottomed. Dont catch a falling knife... but to my mind the knife is on the floor. Pick it up, it wont hurt ya now. Come on, some of these have good balance sheets. Am tired of hearing about the `uncertainty' - in housing. Am holding onto DHI - and KBH.
On the other side of the trade, when no ones paying attention to oil stocks, am looking to buy some puts on XOM and SLB once again- as oil looks like tis goin to sub-90 before it goes toward $ 100 again.
"Capital is not scarce, vision is!" someone once said. A lot of the capital abroad, the likes of the ABU DHABI kind, will be put to work buying American stock... and if we stop being blind-sided and look at the reality- for now it looks like good news. If the emerging markets would rally as foreign investment soared to new levels... its our turn now.
Once again we here were right in not `throwing in the towel' or `folding under pressure' as the markets `corrected'! Will bring more trades your way- as the market settles down... hang in there.
I was wondering what the catalyst would be if not Citigroup- to send the markets soaring after a larger than warranted swoon last week. I certainly put my money into CITI at 29.85 - it was the last chance to get into the stock at such depressed levels. Its up to 32.50 already this morning as the confused investors/bargain hunters/bulls start digesting the fact that the ABU DHABI infusion of funds into the compnay is POSITIVE news.
There is some more sense that the Fed will cut rates again in December- based on comments by a `top Fed official' to that effect. We cant put a gun to his head if the Fed does not cut rates... but for now the market gets a positive comment and reacts fast and furiously before someone distorts the hope.
The mantra for me as a trader is sell on a rally. Not because we will revisit the 12800 on the DOW anytime soon... thats over and done with. But because we are in the money in some stocks too fast. EBAY in at 31- on Monday. A 3 buck rally is enough for me as a trader. Will rotate into JWN- at 34. I believe JWN (Nordstrum) goes closer to 40 and not 30 as we proceed to the year end.
Look for a triple digit rally into the close today- I am boldly saying the reversal is here to stay- we shall not collapse at the end of the day as we have on many occasions last week. And that will spur momentum on the upside... thank heavens... for a change. Oh we already have a triple digit rally- I was referring to a triple digit rally in the NASDAQ (tongue in cheek)- too much optimism will get me into trouble but who cares... I am no Jim Cramer - no one reads my blog anyway.
I am spotting bottoms in some stocks. LOWES looks good at 23- for one. Housing stocks- am afraid to repeat -they have bottomed. Dont catch a falling knife... but to my mind the knife is on the floor. Pick it up, it wont hurt ya now. Come on, some of these have good balance sheets. Am tired of hearing about the `uncertainty' - in housing. Am holding onto DHI - and KBH.
On the other side of the trade, when no ones paying attention to oil stocks, am looking to buy some puts on XOM and SLB once again- as oil looks like tis goin to sub-90 before it goes toward $ 100 again.
"Capital is not scarce, vision is!" someone once said. A lot of the capital abroad, the likes of the ABU DHABI kind, will be put to work buying American stock... and if we stop being blind-sided and look at the reality- for now it looks like good news. If the emerging markets would rally as foreign investment soared to new levels... its our turn now.
Once again we here were right in not `throwing in the towel' or `folding under pressure' as the markets `corrected'! Will bring more trades your way- as the market settles down... hang in there.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
BUY CITIGROUP...
Thats the word for my blog today. BUY CITI shares under $ 31 if you can get them. Foreigners are buying a part of it at this level- someone saw a bottom for CITI under 30 ... and decided to invest 7 +billion... dollars in Citi. Its no secret- it was Abu Dhabi Investment Authority that made the move. Whats more, its likely to invest more funds in distressed sectors- real estate, banks and the like. I guess they are talkin of a distressed nation- USA.
On a lighter vein, Pulte Homes is reaffirming its numbers. Companies in the distressed sector are comin out and commenting. Makes for a short term bottom. KBH at 20 looks good for a bounce if nothing else.
Lets vote for a bottom if Citi news is good enough... sentiment can change to positive at these sensitive levels. The markets have corrected 10% that is healthy and hope it makes us wealthy.
Stay tuned. Opening bell is next... this tuesday morning. Futures were up across the board cautiously I should say. I see the bull comin our way again...
Lets shut up about recession- to be or not to be- and all will be taken care of. Watching for a triple digit rally- and we take it from there tomorrow.
This blog is in honor of CITI - GROUP- the stock that ran under $30 for the first time in 5 years- maybe a decade... check it out. Its worth much more- if they break up the company- that would be a windfall. Meanwhile sufficeth that some foreign investor- found it worthwhile to pull the trigger while all and sundry were downgrading and downplaying the financials out here- except us at Monasmadmarket. Feels solitary with no one commenting. Wish someone would write in response to my blog.
On a lighter vein, Pulte Homes is reaffirming its numbers. Companies in the distressed sector are comin out and commenting. Makes for a short term bottom. KBH at 20 looks good for a bounce if nothing else.
Lets vote for a bottom if Citi news is good enough... sentiment can change to positive at these sensitive levels. The markets have corrected 10% that is healthy and hope it makes us wealthy.
Stay tuned. Opening bell is next... this tuesday morning. Futures were up across the board cautiously I should say. I see the bull comin our way again...
Lets shut up about recession- to be or not to be- and all will be taken care of. Watching for a triple digit rally- and we take it from there tomorrow.
This blog is in honor of CITI - GROUP- the stock that ran under $30 for the first time in 5 years- maybe a decade... check it out. Its worth much more- if they break up the company- that would be a windfall. Meanwhile sufficeth that some foreign investor- found it worthwhile to pull the trigger while all and sundry were downgrading and downplaying the financials out here- except us at Monasmadmarket. Feels solitary with no one commenting. Wish someone would write in response to my blog.
Monday, November 26, 2007
PRICING IN...
The stock market is PRICING IN a recession, if you may. That was todays price action in a nutshell, like it or not, got to trade. Started above 13000 and ended 12740 or somethin... could not dare to see the exact level as it dove below the AUGUST closing low of 12840 or so.
I was away for thanksgiving. Took a week off from my blog. Nothing new to write about? No, just too much cliched... trading was getting boring.
Buy on a dip and sell into a rally and buy again and sell again. Our trade for last week was TGT- in at 53 and out at 57. Buying Citigroup on a downdgrade was not wise. We got in at 31 and change... and it ended the day at a sub-$30 level, $29.75 to be precise. Averaging down may be a good idea- wish it went to $25 once and for all- this deterioration is killing the sentiment. By the time it goes to $25 everyone and their uncle and grandma will be out of the stock... and it will be flat forever until bargain hunters (are there any left I wonder) start buying.
If theres anything more pessimistic than anything... its the stock market. The same woes cause more bloodshed. The wounds are open and analysts and politicians dare to open their mouths wide about the same issues pouring salt over the wounds -OUCH!
One would think the black friday shopping numbers that were quite okay compared to the dismal projections... would bode well for the market as the consumer is still out there.
But, no! They paid attention to CITI again- its cutting 45K jobs- thats good news to me- it implies a massive cost-cutting exercise. Good start to clearing a lousy mess? No, Citi fell 2 bucks or so and dragged all financials... !
Housing stocks were downgraded due to uncertainty... well, the timing of downgradin the sectors that are down 70 to 80 % already, is unbelievable. The investor is puzzled... and misguided. If they did not sell KB Homes at 30- or 25, they sell today at 21. Ridiculous. Unless they know these are going bankrupt. Who knows?
The market has reached a double bottom technically - from August...but I would not put more money into the market. Its too late to sell the losers and a bit early to buy and average down... so lets watch whether we hold 14000 on the S&P and 12500 on the DOW.... Technology is correcting- I think it comes back strong into year end. SO BRCM (in at 28.75)- its about 26.5 today... and NTAP (in at 25) -its about 24... will hold on to them. Adding EBAY tomorrow- if it goes sub-$30 will put in an order to buy around 28.75... for a longer haul. P.E ratios on these stocks are in the teens... - market is pricing in too much gloom- !
The good part about pricing in- is that its all in the prices. IF a recession is priced in the stock market these days... then if we do (the question remains in some minds) get a recession, we are already priced for that- so we can start going higher.
To my mind we are in a recession in some sectors-for instance, housing and finance sectors and many retailers as well. The prices are down enough- between 70 -85 %- to suggest a recession is on.
As the stock market digests the fact that we are in a recession and then by the time a public announcement is made- that US is in a recession... it will be time to rally. As recessions are accompanied by remedies (is the FeD paying heed... ) there should be less to fear. Just go out and shop and have a good christmas, all! The prices take care of themselves but sometimes they make ya sweat.
About the year end, well, once the Fed meeting is done, second week of December, we will know if we get another rate cut- we then rally fearlessly... on and into the year end. Until then we drift up and down, triple digits at a time.
Hang in there. Things can get mighty worse- one day collapses are not ruled out- lets make the most of those moves. The bear is all over the place. Got to find the bull and its might... a stampede is needed ... at this point. An oversold market cant rule that out either. Ha... tis quite amusing... if you are a trader- opportunities have come in knockin on the doors, windows, trap-doors, ceilings... every day... !
I was away for thanksgiving. Took a week off from my blog. Nothing new to write about? No, just too much cliched... trading was getting boring.
Buy on a dip and sell into a rally and buy again and sell again. Our trade for last week was TGT- in at 53 and out at 57. Buying Citigroup on a downdgrade was not wise. We got in at 31 and change... and it ended the day at a sub-$30 level, $29.75 to be precise. Averaging down may be a good idea- wish it went to $25 once and for all- this deterioration is killing the sentiment. By the time it goes to $25 everyone and their uncle and grandma will be out of the stock... and it will be flat forever until bargain hunters (are there any left I wonder) start buying.
If theres anything more pessimistic than anything... its the stock market. The same woes cause more bloodshed. The wounds are open and analysts and politicians dare to open their mouths wide about the same issues pouring salt over the wounds -OUCH!
One would think the black friday shopping numbers that were quite okay compared to the dismal projections... would bode well for the market as the consumer is still out there.
But, no! They paid attention to CITI again- its cutting 45K jobs- thats good news to me- it implies a massive cost-cutting exercise. Good start to clearing a lousy mess? No, Citi fell 2 bucks or so and dragged all financials... !
Housing stocks were downgraded due to uncertainty... well, the timing of downgradin the sectors that are down 70 to 80 % already, is unbelievable. The investor is puzzled... and misguided. If they did not sell KB Homes at 30- or 25, they sell today at 21. Ridiculous. Unless they know these are going bankrupt. Who knows?
The market has reached a double bottom technically - from August...but I would not put more money into the market. Its too late to sell the losers and a bit early to buy and average down... so lets watch whether we hold 14000 on the S&P and 12500 on the DOW.... Technology is correcting- I think it comes back strong into year end. SO BRCM (in at 28.75)- its about 26.5 today... and NTAP (in at 25) -its about 24... will hold on to them. Adding EBAY tomorrow- if it goes sub-$30 will put in an order to buy around 28.75... for a longer haul. P.E ratios on these stocks are in the teens... - market is pricing in too much gloom- !
The good part about pricing in- is that its all in the prices. IF a recession is priced in the stock market these days... then if we do (the question remains in some minds) get a recession, we are already priced for that- so we can start going higher.
To my mind we are in a recession in some sectors-for instance, housing and finance sectors and many retailers as well. The prices are down enough- between 70 -85 %- to suggest a recession is on.
As the stock market digests the fact that we are in a recession and then by the time a public announcement is made- that US is in a recession... it will be time to rally. As recessions are accompanied by remedies (is the FeD paying heed... ) there should be less to fear. Just go out and shop and have a good christmas, all! The prices take care of themselves but sometimes they make ya sweat.
About the year end, well, once the Fed meeting is done, second week of December, we will know if we get another rate cut- we then rally fearlessly... on and into the year end. Until then we drift up and down, triple digits at a time.
Hang in there. Things can get mighty worse- one day collapses are not ruled out- lets make the most of those moves. The bear is all over the place. Got to find the bull and its might... a stampede is needed ... at this point. An oversold market cant rule that out either. Ha... tis quite amusing... if you are a trader- opportunities have come in knockin on the doors, windows, trap-doors, ceilings... every day... !
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
FOLDING UNDER PRESSURE?
At one point this day when the market was close to the August lows... I felt its time to `fold under pressure' and `throw in the towel' or whatever thay call it when the SELL SELL SELL. But I stopped watching as it all ends soon. The market is way oversold so we look for a bounce and hang in there.
Nordstrum saved some grace- It beat estimates... and did not warn so is up 4 bucks in a down market. In at 31- sold at 35 today. Not bad in 2 days. Bought some home builders- KBH at 21... is at a new 52 week low and some NTAP at 25- as technology corrects and folds under pressure, if I may use that expression one more time...
Not much else... the worst scenario is all over the markets. Recession, apocalypse, collapse, gloom, doom.... no room for optimism... no ones lookin at HPQ - that reported good numbers... technology is being thrown out as well. Another day or this week through... and black friday shopping stats. will be worth watching.
Lets have a happy thanksgiving and thanks for the fabulous trading opportunities - be on the right side of the trade. Sell highly volatile stocks that have been up more than warranted by fundamentals. And hold onto financials, housing... though no one will tell you that cept Mona as she analyzes the sentiment of the markets malady and brings her trades your way. BUY when everyone else is dying of heartburn and panic... and put only as much in the trading portfolio as you can afford to lose. Thats a constant caveat...
Nordstrum saved some grace- It beat estimates... and did not warn so is up 4 bucks in a down market. In at 31- sold at 35 today. Not bad in 2 days. Bought some home builders- KBH at 21... is at a new 52 week low and some NTAP at 25- as technology corrects and folds under pressure, if I may use that expression one more time...
Not much else... the worst scenario is all over the markets. Recession, apocalypse, collapse, gloom, doom.... no room for optimism... no ones lookin at HPQ - that reported good numbers... technology is being thrown out as well. Another day or this week through... and black friday shopping stats. will be worth watching.
Lets have a happy thanksgiving and thanks for the fabulous trading opportunities - be on the right side of the trade. Sell highly volatile stocks that have been up more than warranted by fundamentals. And hold onto financials, housing... though no one will tell you that cept Mona as she analyzes the sentiment of the markets malady and brings her trades your way. BUY when everyone else is dying of heartburn and panic... and put only as much in the trading portfolio as you can afford to lose. Thats a constant caveat...
Monday, November 19, 2007
CITI downgraded to sell- OUCH
Citigroup shares were downgraded to SELL by Goldman Sach. As I have pondered before I would respect a downgrade when the stock is at respectable levels for investors to get out. At 50 or 45 perhaps. But at 33 when one sees a downgrade of a otherwise solid company me thinks its a buying opportunity. These stocks - financials - these days provide great trading. We sold C at 36 last week- and I promised to buy if it comes down to 33 or so. I got 32.25 and I am happy.
The retail stocks are sulking again. Amazing trades. We traded COH and JWN from 32 to 36. JWN is 31 today- so obviously a BUY. Nordstrum slows down but is not dead. Consumer is watching his pocket but the class of consumer that shops at Nordstrum will not switch to Walmart- ! One of these days, maybe this week the retails sector will bottom. Black friday - the post thanksgiving shopping day -this year may unfold bad numbers- all the bad news will be factored in this week. Thats my opinion. So buying some retail out here- JWN at 31 ann TGT at 53 -will be good for our money-making ideas.
Thats it for today- market looks like oversold ... and the bounce is imminent. Lets just test the August lows- have a huge selloff so we can start feelin better about the year-end. Hang in there. Its not the end of the worldm yet!
The retail stocks are sulking again. Amazing trades. We traded COH and JWN from 32 to 36. JWN is 31 today- so obviously a BUY. Nordstrum slows down but is not dead. Consumer is watching his pocket but the class of consumer that shops at Nordstrum will not switch to Walmart- ! One of these days, maybe this week the retails sector will bottom. Black friday - the post thanksgiving shopping day -this year may unfold bad numbers- all the bad news will be factored in this week. Thats my opinion. So buying some retail out here- JWN at 31 ann TGT at 53 -will be good for our money-making ideas.
Thats it for today- market looks like oversold ... and the bounce is imminent. Lets just test the August lows- have a huge selloff so we can start feelin better about the year-end. Hang in there. Its not the end of the worldm yet!
Thursday, November 15, 2007
A bid for SOTHEBYs...
Its time to applaud the bid for BID (ticker symbol for SOTHEBYs the only publicly traded auction house in US). Its interesting to note the price action of this stock over last week. Down from above 50 to almost 30 -big OUCH! A single botched auction of Impressionist art sent this stock crashing like it was the end of the art world. Maybe there were no other auction houses that they could sell so they kept hammering BID.
If JCPenny reports lower than expected sales, they hammer JCPenny but then they move on and hammer Target and Macys and so on... each takin some part of the brunt. In case of a slowdown in Sothebys numbers they had only one stock...to hammer. So last week there were no bids for BID and the price went wayyyy down.
I, for one, do not understand what makes a piece of art sell for millions of dollars... but I do understand that the value of art lies in the eyes of the stinking rich beholder. And economic downturn or not, the stinking rich will still bid for art - a collapse in the stock price of BID as much as it did was unwarranted. Once the dust settled and I watched BID all week... I picked up some at 35 yesterday.
Woke up this morning to see its up to 38 already in pre-market action. A contemporary and post-war art auction on Wednesday broke records... and far exceeded the sales estimate.
Tobias Meyer, Sotheby's head of contemporary art, said the results bore out "the high-quality hunger we're experiencing from a completely global community." And fears the weak dollar would deter U.S. buyers, the traditional collectors of contemporary art, proved unfounded, with American buyers comprising the majority.
One would think turmoil in financial markets in recent months would curb the enthusiasm in bidding for art... but so far today's numbers for SOTHEBY's saved the sentiment.
A sigh of relief in the art world... and in the market- what are they going to buy. BID, BID and BID as theres no other auction house to buy. The pumping up will be as fast and furious as the dumping was... so we hold onto BID with a target of mid 40s.
Todays blog is dedicated to art lovers... hope my art lover friends are reading and appreciate that I dont understand art but I do understand when its time to buy art stocks. Lets go for BID... while the rest of the market is undecided.
While I am here lets check our positions. Orders to sell COH and JWN and Citigroup at 36 got filled this week. Am looking for a pullback in Citigroup to get back in as the party has just begun in financial stocks. Maybe if it drops to 33 I am a buyer again. BRCM broke under 30 and I am adding more at 28.75. No bad news... just a semi conductor sluggishness... and AMAT's light estimates going forward. It a technical move for BRCM to the lows... and we may start moving higher soon
as technlogy stocks pick up again.
Meanwhile... lets rejoice for BID. Going, going, gone.... 37... do I see 38... yup... 40 comin up... whew...
If JCPenny reports lower than expected sales, they hammer JCPenny but then they move on and hammer Target and Macys and so on... each takin some part of the brunt. In case of a slowdown in Sothebys numbers they had only one stock...to hammer. So last week there were no bids for BID and the price went wayyyy down.
I, for one, do not understand what makes a piece of art sell for millions of dollars... but I do understand that the value of art lies in the eyes of the stinking rich beholder. And economic downturn or not, the stinking rich will still bid for art - a collapse in the stock price of BID as much as it did was unwarranted. Once the dust settled and I watched BID all week... I picked up some at 35 yesterday.
Woke up this morning to see its up to 38 already in pre-market action. A contemporary and post-war art auction on Wednesday broke records... and far exceeded the sales estimate.
Tobias Meyer, Sotheby's head of contemporary art, said the results bore out "the high-quality hunger we're experiencing from a completely global community." And fears the weak dollar would deter U.S. buyers, the traditional collectors of contemporary art, proved unfounded, with American buyers comprising the majority.
One would think turmoil in financial markets in recent months would curb the enthusiasm in bidding for art... but so far today's numbers for SOTHEBY's saved the sentiment.
A sigh of relief in the art world... and in the market- what are they going to buy. BID, BID and BID as theres no other auction house to buy. The pumping up will be as fast and furious as the dumping was... so we hold onto BID with a target of mid 40s.
Todays blog is dedicated to art lovers... hope my art lover friends are reading and appreciate that I dont understand art but I do understand when its time to buy art stocks. Lets go for BID... while the rest of the market is undecided.
While I am here lets check our positions. Orders to sell COH and JWN and Citigroup at 36 got filled this week. Am looking for a pullback in Citigroup to get back in as the party has just begun in financial stocks. Maybe if it drops to 33 I am a buyer again. BRCM broke under 30 and I am adding more at 28.75. No bad news... just a semi conductor sluggishness... and AMAT's light estimates going forward. It a technical move for BRCM to the lows... and we may start moving higher soon
as technlogy stocks pick up again.
Meanwhile... lets rejoice for BID. Going, going, gone.... 37... do I see 38... yup... 40 comin up... whew...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
BEWARE THE BEAR?
I wonder where the bull went after I sent it out for a rally. Its still circling around wall street I hope while the bears showed some OOmph last evening. DOW dropped below 13000. And more importantly the S&P 500 took out a significant level- 1450. It closed at 1439. OUCH! Lets not even look at the NASDAQ that has almost completed a 8 per cent correction from the recent peaks.
And the VIX (volatility index) shot up above 30 again- to the August levels. What do we make of this? We are in pain. And suffering is not an option... we do what we did in August- BUY BUY BUY. If the market swoons today- the DOW could go all the way to 12500 intra-day some time this week... and buying would be prudent- nibbling is what I do... average down some of my positions where nothing fundamental has changed.
To my mind we are OVERSOLD... and a rally is due. Walmart beat expectations, bodes well for the oversold retail. Will look to sell our retail stocks into the rally - orders to sell COH and JWN at 36 are intact. Our target for TGT is 61- that is do-able this week. Another highlight for this morning is GLW - Corning - we bought it at 21.5 yesterday- stock is up 2 bucks pre-market. The company raised it guidance- miraculous event- in such times... and so I see 25 soon. We hold on as its a safe bet even if the market crashes again this week.
Am covering my oil shorts today. SLB and XOM- have sold off and looks like we will get another chance to buy puts just in case Oil rallies toward $100 again... pulling these stocks up again. So am selling my puts ... as the November expiration is near.
I heard someone on CNBC say he is `cautiously optimistic' - thats another signal to BUY- they will not be optimistic until the party is well under way. When analysts pull the trigger and downgrade a stock thats hitting the dust- I am a buyer- if its a solid company, for instance... a downgrade on JWN when its down from 50 to 31- are you kidding me. The consumer may be dead- but the shoppers at Nordstrum will still go to Nordstrum...!
Technology is beaten down tooo much too far... and hang in there for a year end rally commencing one of these days. Beware the bear- its lurking but should not scare you to sell at the wrong time. Hold onto stock and buy more if they fall - my best bets are CSCO, EBAY, BRCM and GLW. Am adding SIRI at 3.50 betting on an approval of the merger with XMSR. Downside risk is low. So thats another safe one for me.
AM still lookin for the bull that I sent out ... yesterday- if you find him -send him straight to wall street to combat the bears... will you please?
And the VIX (volatility index) shot up above 30 again- to the August levels. What do we make of this? We are in pain. And suffering is not an option... we do what we did in August- BUY BUY BUY. If the market swoons today- the DOW could go all the way to 12500 intra-day some time this week... and buying would be prudent- nibbling is what I do... average down some of my positions where nothing fundamental has changed.
To my mind we are OVERSOLD... and a rally is due. Walmart beat expectations, bodes well for the oversold retail. Will look to sell our retail stocks into the rally - orders to sell COH and JWN at 36 are intact. Our target for TGT is 61- that is do-able this week. Another highlight for this morning is GLW - Corning - we bought it at 21.5 yesterday- stock is up 2 bucks pre-market. The company raised it guidance- miraculous event- in such times... and so I see 25 soon. We hold on as its a safe bet even if the market crashes again this week.
Am covering my oil shorts today. SLB and XOM- have sold off and looks like we will get another chance to buy puts just in case Oil rallies toward $100 again... pulling these stocks up again. So am selling my puts ... as the November expiration is near.
I heard someone on CNBC say he is `cautiously optimistic' - thats another signal to BUY- they will not be optimistic until the party is well under way. When analysts pull the trigger and downgrade a stock thats hitting the dust- I am a buyer- if its a solid company, for instance... a downgrade on JWN when its down from 50 to 31- are you kidding me. The consumer may be dead- but the shoppers at Nordstrum will still go to Nordstrum...!
Technology is beaten down tooo much too far... and hang in there for a year end rally commencing one of these days. Beware the bear- its lurking but should not scare you to sell at the wrong time. Hold onto stock and buy more if they fall - my best bets are CSCO, EBAY, BRCM and GLW. Am adding SIRI at 3.50 betting on an approval of the merger with XMSR. Downside risk is low. So thats another safe one for me.
AM still lookin for the bull that I sent out ... yesterday- if you find him -send him straight to wall street to combat the bears... will you please?
Monday, November 12, 2007
GREAT GOING... so far SO GOOD...
I woke up this morning with a knock on the door. It was a `bull' and its grunt was sanguine to say the least. Come on cheer up- will be your turn soon I said and I sent him to run for the upcoming rally.
Kudos to mona's call- I shall humbly proclaim. To sell gold and oil just before they started retreating, she probably has a crystal ball if not a keen insight into the mad market moves.
Gold peaked at 850 last week right on the mark... give or take a buck. And its down to 810 or so... Did anyone know that it was DIWALI last week and all of India was buying gold- a strong humumgous population... buys precious metal during diwali- if demand had a role to play in the price of gold... last week was one demanding week I guess. That, apart from the huge rally that gold has seen this year...is what nudged me to be bold enough to say- gold peaks for now. And
am happy with my call and our selling GG and NEM (gold stocks) last week at great prices- 37 and 55... both are down big time today. Am I a buyer, not yet.
Oil retreating was another good call. Our short positions in XOM and SLB (oil service) are making good money. We take profits sometime this week.
I am also overwhelmed on the financial and retail side, to have picked the bottom on COACH- and JWN (Nordstrum). We bought while others were sighing and sulking...-got them under 32 last week. COH is up 2 bucks...to 34.65 and JWN up 1.70 to 34 and change. CITIGROUP is up 2 bucks to 35. We are in it at an avg price of 32.5. I have my order in to sell all three (COH, JWN and C) at 36... this week. Once those orders get filled we will move on to greener pastures. Am holding onto TGT -its still languishing at 57.5... will sell above 60 this week or hold on...depending on sentiment.
Am adding LOW (Lowes) to our retail picks at 24.50. EBAY looks good again at 33. For a year end rally, these are safe.
I have been talking of INFY- its at a 52 week low of 41... may get it a buck cheaper... or if it breaks 40... will scream for a buy on that one... This is the Indian ADR punished due to currency woes- the rupee appreciation gnaws at its profits- that woe is in the stock price already- and once it bottoms ... this one will fly fast. Am buying some today at this level- 41 and wil buy more if it breaks 40.
Thats it for today. Good luck all. Follow the money and it follows you. Watch out for the bull I sent out today... Hush...Growl ohhooooo...
Kudos to mona's call- I shall humbly proclaim. To sell gold and oil just before they started retreating, she probably has a crystal ball if not a keen insight into the mad market moves.
Gold peaked at 850 last week right on the mark... give or take a buck. And its down to 810 or so... Did anyone know that it was DIWALI last week and all of India was buying gold- a strong humumgous population... buys precious metal during diwali- if demand had a role to play in the price of gold... last week was one demanding week I guess. That, apart from the huge rally that gold has seen this year...is what nudged me to be bold enough to say- gold peaks for now. And
am happy with my call and our selling GG and NEM (gold stocks) last week at great prices- 37 and 55... both are down big time today. Am I a buyer, not yet.
Oil retreating was another good call. Our short positions in XOM and SLB (oil service) are making good money. We take profits sometime this week.
I am also overwhelmed on the financial and retail side, to have picked the bottom on COACH- and JWN (Nordstrum). We bought while others were sighing and sulking...-got them under 32 last week. COH is up 2 bucks...to 34.65 and JWN up 1.70 to 34 and change. CITIGROUP is up 2 bucks to 35. We are in it at an avg price of 32.5. I have my order in to sell all three (COH, JWN and C) at 36... this week. Once those orders get filled we will move on to greener pastures. Am holding onto TGT -its still languishing at 57.5... will sell above 60 this week or hold on...depending on sentiment.
Am adding LOW (Lowes) to our retail picks at 24.50. EBAY looks good again at 33. For a year end rally, these are safe.
I have been talking of INFY- its at a 52 week low of 41... may get it a buck cheaper... or if it breaks 40... will scream for a buy on that one... This is the Indian ADR punished due to currency woes- the rupee appreciation gnaws at its profits- that woe is in the stock price already- and once it bottoms ... this one will fly fast. Am buying some today at this level- 41 and wil buy more if it breaks 40.
Thats it for today. Good luck all. Follow the money and it follows you. Watch out for the bull I sent out today... Hush...Growl ohhooooo...
Friday, November 9, 2007
IN THE BARGAIN BIN...
Also in emerging markets... India for one, I like INFY- at 42... its the infotech play- down as the rupee grows stronger against the dollar. But the fundamentals are strong and once the market discounts the rupee effect INFY goes higher- my target is 55.
About the financials and housing, each new announcement brings us closer to the end of the crisis... is my take. I am a buyer at the depressed levels... am a risk taker... but thats when the rewards are rewarding. C at 33.5 and added more today at 31.75... lookin for a good trade to 36 next week. And Morgan Stanley- added some at 52 looks good for a quick trade.
Join me ....post a comment... hope some people are benefitting from my blog...
About the financials and housing, each new announcement brings us closer to the end of the crisis... is my take. I am a buyer at the depressed levels... am a risk taker... but thats when the rewards are rewarding. C at 33.5 and added more today at 31.75... lookin for a good trade to 36 next week. And Morgan Stanley- added some at 52 looks good for a quick trade.
Join me ....post a comment... hope some people are benefitting from my blog...
I HAVE SOME PICKS...
Technology is being hammered alongwith the doomed financials and housing stocks. CSCO that we sold at 34 looks great under 29- right away buying at 28.85. The earnings were good and the slowdown that Mr. Chambers spoke of was related to the financial sector- once that clears up the rally commences. BRCM - at 30 looks too good to be true. GLW at 21.5- am averaging my cost- if you hold a stock and it goes down you either take a loss or you buy more at a lower price and bring down the average cost- so thats what I am doing with GLW.
CSCO, BRCM and GLW in tech.
About housing, did I hear our friend Berny talk about housing bottoming in the first half of 2008... in which case housing stocks become bargains- the ones that will survive. I am betting on TOL at 20.20. I am holding DHI - painful to say the least... still lingering around its 52 week low of 11.5. Will wait and watch...
We have a couple of sessions of doomsday type selling... I am afraid as the sentiment is bad out there... But all the bad news is out- and the correction in the market is discounting bad news. A glimpse of clarity or confidence... going into next year... the fact that it all does clear out once all the write downs are on paper... we should emerge in better shape...
The stocks I am buying dont have much downside... the big gainers will lose more... RIMM, AAPL, GOOG etc. that can have double digit losses as profit taking is on... so am and have stayed away from them.
Am holding onto TGT, COH and JWN ... expecting them to rebound once the market settles down.
Theres lots of action and lots of money to be made in this mad market and if you dont panic its worth the pain...
CSCO, BRCM and GLW in tech.
About housing, did I hear our friend Berny talk about housing bottoming in the first half of 2008... in which case housing stocks become bargains- the ones that will survive. I am betting on TOL at 20.20. I am holding DHI - painful to say the least... still lingering around its 52 week low of 11.5. Will wait and watch...
We have a couple of sessions of doomsday type selling... I am afraid as the sentiment is bad out there... But all the bad news is out- and the correction in the market is discounting bad news. A glimpse of clarity or confidence... going into next year... the fact that it all does clear out once all the write downs are on paper... we should emerge in better shape...
The stocks I am buying dont have much downside... the big gainers will lose more... RIMM, AAPL, GOOG etc. that can have double digit losses as profit taking is on... so am and have stayed away from them.
Am holding onto TGT, COH and JWN ... expecting them to rebound once the market settles down.
Theres lots of action and lots of money to be made in this mad market and if you dont panic its worth the pain...
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
BUYING opportunity...
Mona thinks now is the time to buy- put cash to work and wait. Beaten up sectors look like falling knives- not many are bold to catch em. I am buying some beaten down financials and retail. Citi at 33.50 looks good despite the messes in management crowning... and strategy? I would say the bad news is out... and things tend to get better ... One little word of confidence from the company will make the stock spring back... Its tough to pick the bottom, I am convinced when all analysts stay away from financials... the worst is in it. So am buying some Citigroup... !
Retails stocks have been crushed... the higher end retail mainly, COACH, NORDSTRUM... and also TGT... am a buyer of all three ahead of the same-store numbers for October being released tomorrow. The prices are 33, 33 and we got into TGT last week at 57.
CSCO I was happy to sell yesterday at 34... it reports tonite. And CSCO hopefully will be a catalyst to turn the market around.
If CSCO numbers are a disappointment (I dont think they will disappoint after CHAMBERS' upbeat comments ) and if retail numbers are not good at all... the crash continues- DOW goes to 12800... and S & P to 1450... NASDAQ o 2700...
To my mind CSCO will report great numbers and retail weakness is priced in the stocks... so a relief rally tomorrow is called for. I hope I am right...
YGE our sole solar play- I sold half my position at 37... though solar sentiment is very much intact... but want to be cautious ahead of its earnings that come out tomorrow. We will watch that too.
We are still bearish on XOM and SLB... a near $100 oil price did nothing for the stocks... and they move lower ... ! Oil looks ready for a correction and though no one is saying it Gold is certainly due for a pullback from a lofty $840... ! So am sellin my gold stock -GOLDCORP from 24 to 37... was a good rally for me- Newmont mining- is up from 40 to 55... am a seller!
Volatile markets are a traders paradise. If we can be realistic and keep the fear out we can keep making money... in and out.... get the timing right... and know when all bets are off!
Retails stocks have been crushed... the higher end retail mainly, COACH, NORDSTRUM... and also TGT... am a buyer of all three ahead of the same-store numbers for October being released tomorrow. The prices are 33, 33 and we got into TGT last week at 57.
CSCO I was happy to sell yesterday at 34... it reports tonite. And CSCO hopefully will be a catalyst to turn the market around.
If CSCO numbers are a disappointment (I dont think they will disappoint after CHAMBERS' upbeat comments ) and if retail numbers are not good at all... the crash continues- DOW goes to 12800... and S & P to 1450... NASDAQ o 2700...
To my mind CSCO will report great numbers and retail weakness is priced in the stocks... so a relief rally tomorrow is called for. I hope I am right...
YGE our sole solar play- I sold half my position at 37... though solar sentiment is very much intact... but want to be cautious ahead of its earnings that come out tomorrow. We will watch that too.
We are still bearish on XOM and SLB... a near $100 oil price did nothing for the stocks... and they move lower ... ! Oil looks ready for a correction and though no one is saying it Gold is certainly due for a pullback from a lofty $840... ! So am sellin my gold stock -GOLDCORP from 24 to 37... was a good rally for me- Newmont mining- is up from 40 to 55... am a seller!
Volatile markets are a traders paradise. If we can be realistic and keep the fear out we can keep making money... in and out.... get the timing right... and know when all bets are off!
Friday, November 2, 2007
BUY BUY BUY
OUCH the market crashed yesterday - as it digested the FED speak. A bit absurd. Rate cut came in and maybe more rate cuts may not come in? Whatever. I am lookin at the job numbers - up 166000. Recession aint coming. Technology looks strong. Financials have to bottom... one of these days... Housing cannot keep swooning. Dooms day scenario is not warranted. No new bad news... same old bad news.
I would buy ... on weakness. Investment banks are all down with Merrill Lynch... MS= 58... LEH 57... no matter the wait- these are bargains... when everyone is on the sidelines... Mona says BUY. Retail is on sale... TGT 57, COH 34, JWN =37... got to nibble some... !
If there is a melt down today, next week we will see recovery. A jobs number of 166000 will be digested next week in a late reaction. Sentiment got crushed after yesterdays crash... and lets give it time to recover.
Stay tuned and hang in there. No need to panic. Cash is king, but you crown it on such days and put it to work in my humble opinion.
I would buy ... on weakness. Investment banks are all down with Merrill Lynch... MS= 58... LEH 57... no matter the wait- these are bargains... when everyone is on the sidelines... Mona says BUY. Retail is on sale... TGT 57, COH 34, JWN =37... got to nibble some... !
If there is a melt down today, next week we will see recovery. A jobs number of 166000 will be digested next week in a late reaction. Sentiment got crushed after yesterdays crash... and lets give it time to recover.
Stay tuned and hang in there. No need to panic. Cash is king, but you crown it on such days and put it to work in my humble opinion.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
FED CUTS RATES by 25 BASIS...
The market got what it pretty much wanted. A 25 basis point cut in interest rates. There was a thought in my mind... market melt-down.... as housing and finance stocks will get nervous again. But CNBC et al were talking melt up. Some respected person said we are heading for a stampede into the year end= big rally??? Well we began with a stampede selling is all I know for now.
The panic is missing. So I am a buyer on pullbacks. Citigroup is trading under 40... -38 to be precise. IT has a 5 +yield that makes it attractive. But the rumor is that CITI may cut its dividend ... so no, until that one settles down am not a buyer. But I did buy Morgan Stanley at 62 and change... for a quick trade. We are still holding EBAY and BRCM (newly added on Monday at 32.2) and CSCO and AKAM. I am adding GLW (Corning) to my portfolio. It got beat after okay earnings...from 27 to under 24. Its introducing bendable fiber- an innovation that telcos have been lookin for- at 23.8 am abuyer today.
As the day progresses we may get some panic selling... and buyers come back in as they realize wall street is having a clearance sale again. Its a traders market - and tremendous opportunities present themselves if we are alert and watching. Between today and tomorrow as the employment numbers for October are announced- its time to put the cash to use.
Bargains on my list are TGT under 60 looks good- 58 and change is my trigger price. GLW (Corning) under 24 is a safe buy.
All in all todays market crash- DOW down 240 pts, NASDAQ down 35, S&P down 7 ... will not last. Watch for bargain prices and pull the trigger. Next week we start the climb to new highs... as earnings most of them are out of the way, FED is out of the way, and job numbers are out of the way. If we get a negative jobs number all bets are off obviously...
The panic is missing. So I am a buyer on pullbacks. Citigroup is trading under 40... -38 to be precise. IT has a 5 +yield that makes it attractive. But the rumor is that CITI may cut its dividend ... so no, until that one settles down am not a buyer. But I did buy Morgan Stanley at 62 and change... for a quick trade. We are still holding EBAY and BRCM (newly added on Monday at 32.2) and CSCO and AKAM. I am adding GLW (Corning) to my portfolio. It got beat after okay earnings...from 27 to under 24. Its introducing bendable fiber- an innovation that telcos have been lookin for- at 23.8 am abuyer today.
As the day progresses we may get some panic selling... and buyers come back in as they realize wall street is having a clearance sale again. Its a traders market - and tremendous opportunities present themselves if we are alert and watching. Between today and tomorrow as the employment numbers for October are announced- its time to put the cash to use.
Bargains on my list are TGT under 60 looks good- 58 and change is my trigger price. GLW (Corning) under 24 is a safe buy.
All in all todays market crash- DOW down 240 pts, NASDAQ down 35, S&P down 7 ... will not last. Watch for bargain prices and pull the trigger. Next week we start the climb to new highs... as earnings most of them are out of the way, FED is out of the way, and job numbers are out of the way. If we get a negative jobs number all bets are off obviously...
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
TRICK OR TREAT?
I have to get a halloween costume for my boy. Have to get it on or before the 31st of October. Makes sense, timing is everything.
Talking of timing we better get that right as traders. Sold YHOO at 34 yesterday. That was the closest call I ever made. Bought last week at 30.25 (scroll down my blog archive) and sold yesterday at 34. The Alibaba IPO effect had to be shortlived I knew and we sold at the first glimpse of momentum in the stock. Believe it or not we got 34 at the open yestereday, missed a heart beat to see that the stock closed at 31.75 or so. And it is down another buck today at 30.75. Do we buy it back. Looks like a good trade again. But no, I move on to the next pick. Timing means a lot for short term traders. To be able to get out at the right price and right day...
Not much to say ahead of the Fed meeting. We raised cash and I dont find any buys except for one in the technology sector. BRCM. We had a nice ride last month from 32 to 40. And after earnings that were not that bad the stock got hammered all the way to 32 again. It reflects a technical move as well and if technology is as great as it is pointed out to be ... BRCM will recover nicely with a tech rally. SO thats a buy at 32.2 right now.
The financials have been all over the place and a traders delight. Instead of paying attention to the exact mess that Merrill is revealing in the management camp... buy low and sell high works well. But buy the other financials, stay away from Merrill itself. Too much negative reaction on disappointing appointments at Merrill can lead to more damage than we as laymen can perceive. When Merrill collapsed to 60 last week... LEHMAN pulled back to 54 in sympathy and we had a great time buying them at 55. When word got out that Merrill CEO will step down etc. dont know where it traded... but got a chance to sell LEH at 61 and change. So watching the price action is a good tip for traders.
If the financials pullback some more before or after the Fed meeting they may present a chance to buy. Morgan Stanley in the low 60s or Lehman in the 58-60 level look good to me.
About the Fed action tomorrow seems the market is expecting at least a 25 basis rate reduction. Lets hope for that. When my child does not get his halloween costume when he expects it- on or before halloween... he gets mad. If themarket does not get what it expects it will I am afraid get mad, very mad. And a collapse is not out of order. 25 basis, Mr. Berny if you are our friend. Trick or treat, whats it gonna be? We shall see...
We have cash to make it work so lets watch.... good luck... and dont fret what the FED does... make the most before and after... what they do.
Talking of timing we better get that right as traders. Sold YHOO at 34 yesterday. That was the closest call I ever made. Bought last week at 30.25 (scroll down my blog archive) and sold yesterday at 34. The Alibaba IPO effect had to be shortlived I knew and we sold at the first glimpse of momentum in the stock. Believe it or not we got 34 at the open yestereday, missed a heart beat to see that the stock closed at 31.75 or so. And it is down another buck today at 30.75. Do we buy it back. Looks like a good trade again. But no, I move on to the next pick. Timing means a lot for short term traders. To be able to get out at the right price and right day...
Not much to say ahead of the Fed meeting. We raised cash and I dont find any buys except for one in the technology sector. BRCM. We had a nice ride last month from 32 to 40. And after earnings that were not that bad the stock got hammered all the way to 32 again. It reflects a technical move as well and if technology is as great as it is pointed out to be ... BRCM will recover nicely with a tech rally. SO thats a buy at 32.2 right now.
The financials have been all over the place and a traders delight. Instead of paying attention to the exact mess that Merrill is revealing in the management camp... buy low and sell high works well. But buy the other financials, stay away from Merrill itself. Too much negative reaction on disappointing appointments at Merrill can lead to more damage than we as laymen can perceive. When Merrill collapsed to 60 last week... LEHMAN pulled back to 54 in sympathy and we had a great time buying them at 55. When word got out that Merrill CEO will step down etc. dont know where it traded... but got a chance to sell LEH at 61 and change. So watching the price action is a good tip for traders.
If the financials pullback some more before or after the Fed meeting they may present a chance to buy. Morgan Stanley in the low 60s or Lehman in the 58-60 level look good to me.
About the Fed action tomorrow seems the market is expecting at least a 25 basis rate reduction. Lets hope for that. When my child does not get his halloween costume when he expects it- on or before halloween... he gets mad. If themarket does not get what it expects it will I am afraid get mad, very mad. And a collapse is not out of order. 25 basis, Mr. Berny if you are our friend. Trick or treat, whats it gonna be? We shall see...
We have cash to make it work so lets watch.... good luck... and dont fret what the FED does... make the most before and after... what they do.
Monday, October 29, 2007
TAKING PROFITS AHEAD OF THE FED
Rally continued on friday and Monday morning looks good. Global markets were strong. Ahead of the Fed meeting and interest rate cut decision on Wednesday methinks we have a chance to sell some and be ready for a pullback thursday ahead of the job numbers. Sell into this rally is my trade. LEH bought last week at 55 looks good as I sell at 61.50 today. YHOO nibbled at 30.25- last week selling at 34 today before the ALIBABA IPO effect wears off. ENER rallied to 29 and change close to my target of 30- it was undervalued at 25 where we bought it... and still goes higher but for now will sell at 29.25! We trade to make money and if we dont sell we just see the ups and downs in the stock prices.
AKAM is nearing 40 -will watch this one. Have held on all the way from 30 and if it does break out above 40 may get 45. Not being greedy, just rational as I love the sector AKAM is a leader in. LLNW the new recruit has started moving again.... We are in 10 and 11 its about 12.25... my target is 15 and I will be patient.
YGE my solitary solar play broke out just as expected. In at 31.7- its foolish to sell a solar stock that just breaks out to a new 52 week high... but selling half the position at 38 if I get it today... makes me comfortable to get in again if it does pullback. Or we make money on the half position we did not sell? YA?
Mona will be back soon. For now sell into the rally and watch for pullbacks. Year end rally will continue to test the highs but not without some hiccups...
Cheers ... and good luck.
AKAM is nearing 40 -will watch this one. Have held on all the way from 30 and if it does break out above 40 may get 45. Not being greedy, just rational as I love the sector AKAM is a leader in. LLNW the new recruit has started moving again.... We are in 10 and 11 its about 12.25... my target is 15 and I will be patient.
YGE my solitary solar play broke out just as expected. In at 31.7- its foolish to sell a solar stock that just breaks out to a new 52 week high... but selling half the position at 38 if I get it today... makes me comfortable to get in again if it does pullback. Or we make money on the half position we did not sell? YA?
Mona will be back soon. For now sell into the rally and watch for pullbacks. Year end rally will continue to test the highs but not without some hiccups...
Cheers ... and good luck.
Friday, October 26, 2007
HALO 3 EFFECT-... HALO-HOO
MSFT (the all powerful Microsoft...) makes a debut on my blog.
Stocks rally today swayed up by none other than MSFT that beat analysts estimates by 10 cents. (its called `blew estimates away'). The stock rallied to a six year high... today at 36, up 4 bucks this morning.
Another catalyst for the rally on wall street today was Countrywide Financial making a positive comment -expecting profitability in 2008. If all firms just paid heed to what investors are looking for- postitive comments... about next year... there would be more green after the earnings.
All our positions are up- CSCO, EBAY, AKAM, LLNW... and we will hold into next week. YGE, our singular solar play- broke out today... we are in at 31 and change. Its at 34... and will watch next week for 40, perhaps.
Once a stock crosses its 52 week high... the $ky is the limit....
I added some COH to our holdings as it touched 35 - just as predicted in my blog 2 days back.
Lehman (LEH) our financial stock gave me a hard time when it broke down alongwith Merrill Lynch's woes- (wrote down $8 billion losses) taking all financials down to lows ...! Picked up some more LEH at 55... to average down and will wait for a rally as the FED meeting comes closer...
For now HALO-HOO for MSFT and hopefully the stock stays up... a failed rally will be disappointing... to say the least... WATCHIN again... before we put more money to work.
Stocks rally today swayed up by none other than MSFT that beat analysts estimates by 10 cents. (its called `blew estimates away'). The stock rallied to a six year high... today at 36, up 4 bucks this morning.
Another catalyst for the rally on wall street today was Countrywide Financial making a positive comment -expecting profitability in 2008. If all firms just paid heed to what investors are looking for- postitive comments... about next year... there would be more green after the earnings.
All our positions are up- CSCO, EBAY, AKAM, LLNW... and we will hold into next week. YGE, our singular solar play- broke out today... we are in at 31 and change. Its at 34... and will watch next week for 40, perhaps.
Once a stock crosses its 52 week high... the $ky is the limit....
I added some COH to our holdings as it touched 35 - just as predicted in my blog 2 days back.
Lehman (LEH) our financial stock gave me a hard time when it broke down alongwith Merrill Lynch's woes- (wrote down $8 billion losses) taking all financials down to lows ...! Picked up some more LEH at 55... to average down and will wait for a rally as the FED meeting comes closer...
For now HALO-HOO for MSFT and hopefully the stock stays up... a failed rally will be disappointing... to say the least... WATCHIN again... before we put more money to work.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
EARNINGS- LURKING... WIN SOME LOSE SOME
We are watching the third quarter earnings and we see some winners and some losers. Each stock reacts differently. A lot depends on where the stock is coming from before the earnings release. A stock like AMZN that traded up to almost 100... yesterday had no room for error. Had I owned it I would have been happy all the way to the bank at 99. Its come up from 50...well... it was even lower than that last year. The earnings were okay, margins weaker... and the stock is down 9 bucks. And in my opinion going lower... but am doing nothing.
AAPL had a stellar quarter by all counts and though the stock has had a voilahoola run this year... from 78 to 175 before the earnings. The upbeat quarter was worth another 10 bucks and its 185 today. It goes higher... but am doing nothing.
COH (Coach) I thought was a good trade at 40 and bought some... but it had a glum consumer spending outlook for the holiday season... and its down to 36 and change... OUCH. That hurt. Who asked me to venture before the earnings. No matter how much you know that holding stock positions before the earnings report is dangerous... one does make such mistakes. I am not going to stop loss this one. I am going to watch. I think it has support around the 35 area and the stock is down too much - trading at cheaper valuation... as it did not bring down its estimates.
For now EBAY and CSCO look like safe and steady bets. EBAY had great earnings and upped estimates, still got beat up from 41 to 36... We are in it ... for the rally that ensues some time soon. CSCO I added some at 31- its a no-brainer for reasons stated in my blog a couple of times...
Stay tuned as we find more opportunities. Forgot to mention YHOO- looks like breaking out above 30... may take it to 34... if the ALIBABA IPO next week is a sensation as most chinese IPOs are these days. YHOO has a big enough stake in the company to make it move higher ... is my opinion. Nibbling a bit on YHOO at 30.25 today... for a quick trade.
GOOD luck and happy trading... all.
AAPL had a stellar quarter by all counts and though the stock has had a voilahoola run this year... from 78 to 175 before the earnings. The upbeat quarter was worth another 10 bucks and its 185 today. It goes higher... but am doing nothing.
COH (Coach) I thought was a good trade at 40 and bought some... but it had a glum consumer spending outlook for the holiday season... and its down to 36 and change... OUCH. That hurt. Who asked me to venture before the earnings. No matter how much you know that holding stock positions before the earnings report is dangerous... one does make such mistakes. I am not going to stop loss this one. I am going to watch. I think it has support around the 35 area and the stock is down too much - trading at cheaper valuation... as it did not bring down its estimates.
For now EBAY and CSCO look like safe and steady bets. EBAY had great earnings and upped estimates, still got beat up from 41 to 36... We are in it ... for the rally that ensues some time soon. CSCO I added some at 31- its a no-brainer for reasons stated in my blog a couple of times...
Stay tuned as we find more opportunities. Forgot to mention YHOO- looks like breaking out above 30... may take it to 34... if the ALIBABA IPO next week is a sensation as most chinese IPOs are these days. YHOO has a big enough stake in the company to make it move higher ... is my opinion. Nibbling a bit on YHOO at 30.25 today... for a quick trade.
GOOD luck and happy trading... all.
Monday, October 22, 2007
VOLATILE AGAIN? VIX where are you today?
Friday ended in a crashy type of market. I was wrong when I said we may turn out okay by the close. The volatility index rose ... again to 25... on the nasdaq. Remember the VIX was close to 32 in August when the market had its tremors?
We did very well with our puts on SLB (the oil service play). Today SLB is down to 95. And we made a huge amount of money by selling all our NOVEMBER puts. I do not recommend holding options when they are in the money in a big way ... take the profits and rotate into the next position. If the stock were to turn around the profits will evaporate fast and furiously.
CRM (Saleforce.com) was another short position we hold at 54. It touched 50 today. Great time to cover at least half our position. CRM has competition creeping up from the likes of MSFT... and CRM is trading at p.e. multiple of way above 100.... Despite stellar growth the price is way ahead of itself unless its on the takeover radar. Will watch it closely for it to drop below 50 this week and cover our short position and move on.
This time around the correction that began last week does not seem to be panicky and fearful. The same stories - recession, subprime, housing -dont scare us anymore. I would worry if there was somethin new to scare us about. I think the market will be okay- such pullbacks are great to put our cash to work.
Today I am buying COH (COACH) at 40.8, its oversold in my opinion and a great brand with global presence... good for a trade. Also like CSCO again at 31- its a low risk play. YGE - solar stock -we bought at 31 last week - averaging today by buying at 29 ... have a good vibe on this one and the earnings if the YAHOO finance numbers be right, look too good ... at $5.18/share for 2008. SO YGE is a screaming solar buy. Will keep a stop loss at 25 of course.
Our position in SNDK got stop lossed at 45 on FRIDAY. I still like SNDK... maybe if it gets closer to 40 will buy it again. Will watch it this week.
Some more earnings comin in this week. Lets watch the price action in MSFT and AAPL before and after earnings... and then re-assess what we can do to take advantage. Meanwhile, its been great going so far and theres more reason to celebrate than swoon as our short positions save the day and our longs did not collapse.
We are not done going down... a few days of consolidation and one more round of sell-off with the VIX rising again will make me more comfortable going long LONG!
We did very well with our puts on SLB (the oil service play). Today SLB is down to 95. And we made a huge amount of money by selling all our NOVEMBER puts. I do not recommend holding options when they are in the money in a big way ... take the profits and rotate into the next position. If the stock were to turn around the profits will evaporate fast and furiously.
CRM (Saleforce.com) was another short position we hold at 54. It touched 50 today. Great time to cover at least half our position. CRM has competition creeping up from the likes of MSFT... and CRM is trading at p.e. multiple of way above 100.... Despite stellar growth the price is way ahead of itself unless its on the takeover radar. Will watch it closely for it to drop below 50 this week and cover our short position and move on.
This time around the correction that began last week does not seem to be panicky and fearful. The same stories - recession, subprime, housing -dont scare us anymore. I would worry if there was somethin new to scare us about. I think the market will be okay- such pullbacks are great to put our cash to work.
Today I am buying COH (COACH) at 40.8, its oversold in my opinion and a great brand with global presence... good for a trade. Also like CSCO again at 31- its a low risk play. YGE - solar stock -we bought at 31 last week - averaging today by buying at 29 ... have a good vibe on this one and the earnings if the YAHOO finance numbers be right, look too good ... at $5.18/share for 2008. SO YGE is a screaming solar buy. Will keep a stop loss at 25 of course.
Our position in SNDK got stop lossed at 45 on FRIDAY. I still like SNDK... maybe if it gets closer to 40 will buy it again. Will watch it this week.
Some more earnings comin in this week. Lets watch the price action in MSFT and AAPL before and after earnings... and then re-assess what we can do to take advantage. Meanwhile, its been great going so far and theres more reason to celebrate than swoon as our short positions save the day and our longs did not collapse.
We are not done going down... a few days of consolidation and one more round of sell-off with the VIX rising again will make me more comfortable going long LONG!
Friday, October 19, 2007
OIL SERVICE CRASHIN...
OIL service companies are a-crashing today led by SLB. Some posts ago we bought put options- the NOVEMBER strike price $100 at 1.80 or so. Believe it or not we doubled our money there... they are trading at 2.80 and going strong. WHY? Because SLB reported earnings today and sell on the news worked out just as predicted. We took some money off that trade and am letting some ride till next week. If SLB trades below 100 we can make more. Since options can be very volatile and timing is everything when we deal with options we will watch this one carefully.
Today the stock market is in the red big time... DOW down 200 points already. This is the pullback I was waiting for. I will wait for DOW 13500 to put our CASH to work. But no harm in nibbling the companies that reported good numbers and raised estimates. I am thinking EBAY. We rode the rally from 32 to 40. Its trading below 37... and I am a buyer on this dip today right away- 36.75 for a quick trade.
A word on why the market is down so much. Its simple. After the unabated rally to new highs... 14200 and some, it was overdue for a correction. Thats whats happening. Nothin to panic about. Panic loses money- got to be objective and buy the right stocks at this opportunity.
The trigger for the crash is earnings obviously... good or bad, stocks get hit. CATERPILLAR was one of the catalysts for it made pessimistic comments on the U.S. economy- (global economy is fine... thats a good read-between-the-lines) and it got slammed- down 3 bucks to 75.
GOOGLE is a face-saver for the markets today- on its way to glory-hooo.... as it beat estimates and analysts have gone ahead and given it price targets as high as 800. Was as high as 658 in the morning. GOOGLE will go to 800 if they say so... who knows. But I would rather buy a stock at 60 that may go to 80... and get the same returns ...
HANG in there... todays pullback is healthy. Maybe the upbeat quarter by GOOGLE and market sentiment not all that bad may pull off a recovery in the markets during the day.... maybe less red and we be down in double digits for the day. I will take that and look forward to better days next week, as we get closer to the FED meeting. Remember he may give us another rate cut. And the market will feel more comfortable...going into the year end.
Meanwhile... we will watch our short positions. SLB worked out. I am short CRM -at an average price of 54. We will talk of that position next week. Read my blog and dont forget to post a comment... anyone can comment- you dont have to be a google email account holder anymore. I fixed that... Today even in the dull bruised market lets say KUDOS to GOOGLE... for continuing its uptrend. GOOG-A-HOOO.... till next week. Have a great one, all.
Today the stock market is in the red big time... DOW down 200 points already. This is the pullback I was waiting for. I will wait for DOW 13500 to put our CASH to work. But no harm in nibbling the companies that reported good numbers and raised estimates. I am thinking EBAY. We rode the rally from 32 to 40. Its trading below 37... and I am a buyer on this dip today right away- 36.75 for a quick trade.
A word on why the market is down so much. Its simple. After the unabated rally to new highs... 14200 and some, it was overdue for a correction. Thats whats happening. Nothin to panic about. Panic loses money- got to be objective and buy the right stocks at this opportunity.
The trigger for the crash is earnings obviously... good or bad, stocks get hit. CATERPILLAR was one of the catalysts for it made pessimistic comments on the U.S. economy- (global economy is fine... thats a good read-between-the-lines) and it got slammed- down 3 bucks to 75.
GOOGLE is a face-saver for the markets today- on its way to glory-hooo.... as it beat estimates and analysts have gone ahead and given it price targets as high as 800. Was as high as 658 in the morning. GOOGLE will go to 800 if they say so... who knows. But I would rather buy a stock at 60 that may go to 80... and get the same returns ...
HANG in there... todays pullback is healthy. Maybe the upbeat quarter by GOOGLE and market sentiment not all that bad may pull off a recovery in the markets during the day.... maybe less red and we be down in double digits for the day. I will take that and look forward to better days next week, as we get closer to the FED meeting. Remember he may give us another rate cut. And the market will feel more comfortable...going into the year end.
Meanwhile... we will watch our short positions. SLB worked out. I am short CRM -at an average price of 54. We will talk of that position next week. Read my blog and dont forget to post a comment... anyone can comment- you dont have to be a google email account holder anymore. I fixed that... Today even in the dull bruised market lets say KUDOS to GOOGLE... for continuing its uptrend. GOOG-A-HOOO.... till next week. Have a great one, all.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
A VOILAHOO FOR YAHOO
A VOILAHOO for YHOO is in order. Nothing spectacular. Earnings were okay and future estimates better. Enough to put Yhoo in the green to 29. I think it bottomed out for this year. May get a chance to buy it around 28. But am not trading it yet. INTEL earnings were good and future guidance better. The stock is higher... to a 52 week high of 27 ... which is all very good. We do not buy Yhoo and INTEL today as they are up already and
theres only a buck or two be made from here. But we can buy them on pullbacks as they are safe trades. But we take this as a positive development for the market going forward as the sentiment is better.
The good earnings reports definitely helped to ward off the bad sentiment fromt he housing numbers.
Housing numbers were awful today and still the market seems to be shrugging them off. High time that the market does that. Housing stocks have little room to go down. In a another year we can maybe expect some kind of recovery- ? DHI 12.28 was the low from which it sprang back to 13... scary... but we are holding on.
A lot is based on sentiment. If overall the sentiment is good, global boom continues, US chugs along, valuations are very reasonable, holiday season will be upon us, dont see any doomsday comin up, subprime messes are out in the open.... I mean it may not be over... but its old news.... FED cuts rates and theres more liquidity in the system... People who were waiting start buying homes again. And slowly the money on the sidelines starts investing in real estate again... Its a wishful scenario... Lets see how it unfolds.
So based on this thinking, somehow looks to me like the hurdles for the market rally are clearing up. If today after INTC and YHOO numbers, add to that also JP MORGAN reported better than expected earnings... the market is dull, its only a pause. I see GREEN across the board - DOW above 14000, NASDAQ above 2800 and S&P 1550 by close today.
I still like LLNW and AKAM -both are down on no news. LLNW raised estimates and was trading around 12 last week. Its down to 10.50 and I am pulling the trigger to buy more today. Its filling the gap- so to say is my thinking... and my target is 15 sometime next month. SO help me GOD. AKAM holding on from 30- went to 40 and we did not sell. Was a mistake as its 33.5 today... there are sinister market bashers after this one... AM buying more at 33.5 as I have faith in what its doing. If streaming media is a screaming buy got to be in AKAM the leader and LLNW the new kid on the block.
Loved COH (coach) yesterday (mentioned it on another board.... but forgot to mention it here).... it was down to 41.5 near its support level and I bought some ... it was a no-brainer ... Its upto 43 already- Will sell at 45- by next week.
SNDK has been unduly punished in my opinion and good for a trade. Its at 48 ... will keep a stop loss at 46.... and upside looks good. SO puttin some money to use as techonlogy skies are smiling.
SOLAR play, YGE is ready to breakout ... we are in at 31.7, remember. Will not take less than 40 on this one. We played with TRISOLAR and made good money back and forth between 40 -50 ...its trading range is 50 to 50 these days... but switching to YGE made sense as its still making new highs.
We are watching the earnings season unfold and getting ready for the FED meeting at the end of the month. Will BERNY give us another rate cut and pave the way for record highs on the DOW? Who knows, but for now lets rejoice good earnings from INTC and YHOO. VOILAHOOOO and buying on a pullback today will be a good idea.
Thats it from me.... remember its only money.... learn to invest it, diversify, and then keep some on the side to leap into trades that can make more money- watch the sentiment.... it always helps...
theres only a buck or two be made from here. But we can buy them on pullbacks as they are safe trades. But we take this as a positive development for the market going forward as the sentiment is better.
The good earnings reports definitely helped to ward off the bad sentiment fromt he housing numbers.
Housing numbers were awful today and still the market seems to be shrugging them off. High time that the market does that. Housing stocks have little room to go down. In a another year we can maybe expect some kind of recovery- ? DHI 12.28 was the low from which it sprang back to 13... scary... but we are holding on.
A lot is based on sentiment. If overall the sentiment is good, global boom continues, US chugs along, valuations are very reasonable, holiday season will be upon us, dont see any doomsday comin up, subprime messes are out in the open.... I mean it may not be over... but its old news.... FED cuts rates and theres more liquidity in the system... People who were waiting start buying homes again. And slowly the money on the sidelines starts investing in real estate again... Its a wishful scenario... Lets see how it unfolds.
So based on this thinking, somehow looks to me like the hurdles for the market rally are clearing up. If today after INTC and YHOO numbers, add to that also JP MORGAN reported better than expected earnings... the market is dull, its only a pause. I see GREEN across the board - DOW above 14000, NASDAQ above 2800 and S&P 1550 by close today.
I still like LLNW and AKAM -both are down on no news. LLNW raised estimates and was trading around 12 last week. Its down to 10.50 and I am pulling the trigger to buy more today. Its filling the gap- so to say is my thinking... and my target is 15 sometime next month. SO help me GOD. AKAM holding on from 30- went to 40 and we did not sell. Was a mistake as its 33.5 today... there are sinister market bashers after this one... AM buying more at 33.5 as I have faith in what its doing. If streaming media is a screaming buy got to be in AKAM the leader and LLNW the new kid on the block.
Loved COH (coach) yesterday (mentioned it on another board.... but forgot to mention it here).... it was down to 41.5 near its support level and I bought some ... it was a no-brainer ... Its upto 43 already- Will sell at 45- by next week.
SNDK has been unduly punished in my opinion and good for a trade. Its at 48 ... will keep a stop loss at 46.... and upside looks good. SO puttin some money to use as techonlogy skies are smiling.
SOLAR play, YGE is ready to breakout ... we are in at 31.7, remember. Will not take less than 40 on this one. We played with TRISOLAR and made good money back and forth between 40 -50 ...its trading range is 50 to 50 these days... but switching to YGE made sense as its still making new highs.
We are watching the earnings season unfold and getting ready for the FED meeting at the end of the month. Will BERNY give us another rate cut and pave the way for record highs on the DOW? Who knows, but for now lets rejoice good earnings from INTC and YHOO. VOILAHOOOO and buying on a pullback today will be a good idea.
Thats it from me.... remember its only money.... learn to invest it, diversify, and then keep some on the side to leap into trades that can make more money- watch the sentiment.... it always helps...
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
PULLBACK... continues...
Cash is king but got to put it to work. Citigroup earnings were not a non-event after all. The financial messes tore down sentiments all over the market. But I got an opportunity to buy LEH at 60 today. I am lookin forward to 65 again. This got easy again.
VCLK- the risky play served out the risk today as it lowered its revenue estimates. The stock got slammed to 24.5 on the open. And I ran for cover. Will buy it back if at all it goes to 20. If VCLK was hot as it was a potential buyout candidate, a lower revenue estimate and the resultant drop in share price would only bring the suitors more closer to a deal... is my thinking. But the market shoots first and analyzes later... so its too risky to hold.
We put the cash in LEH for now. Financials are down a lot on the same news... so they are safer. Says who? I know am going against the herd... who think staying away from financials is the way to go. Well time will tell.
Amazon looks like done going up but tis time to watch .... and be wary. The worst time to trade is ahead of the earnings... as sometimes they can take all your gains away in a day. Take a look at Ericsson - its down 20% (10 bucks ) this morning on a profit warning. Warned you, be in cash didn't I? The same cash buys more shares when they get hammered so bad.
Once the market absorbs the shocks - maybe a couple of hundred more points to go on the downside we will be close to the next FED meeting. And once that is absorbed whats to stop the year end rally? Who knows. I am more concerned about today... and what we can do to make the most of the moves... Stay tuned...
Lets meet after YHOO and INTEL report today. Buyer beware... look for stellar comments from the conference calls, aint happenin if a slowdown is lurking. So once again cash is king.
VCLK- the risky play served out the risk today as it lowered its revenue estimates. The stock got slammed to 24.5 on the open. And I ran for cover. Will buy it back if at all it goes to 20. If VCLK was hot as it was a potential buyout candidate, a lower revenue estimate and the resultant drop in share price would only bring the suitors more closer to a deal... is my thinking. But the market shoots first and analyzes later... so its too risky to hold.
We put the cash in LEH for now. Financials are down a lot on the same news... so they are safer. Says who? I know am going against the herd... who think staying away from financials is the way to go. Well time will tell.
Amazon looks like done going up but tis time to watch .... and be wary. The worst time to trade is ahead of the earnings... as sometimes they can take all your gains away in a day. Take a look at Ericsson - its down 20% (10 bucks ) this morning on a profit warning. Warned you, be in cash didn't I? The same cash buys more shares when they get hammered so bad.
Once the market absorbs the shocks - maybe a couple of hundred more points to go on the downside we will be close to the next FED meeting. And once that is absorbed whats to stop the year end rally? Who knows. I am more concerned about today... and what we can do to make the most of the moves... Stay tuned...
Lets meet after YHOO and INTEL report today. Buyer beware... look for stellar comments from the conference calls, aint happenin if a slowdown is lurking. So once again cash is king.
Monday, October 15, 2007
ANALYST UPGRADES- HE HE
SIRF was upgraded by lehman brothers... to BUY. Its trading at 25. Mona upgraded it to STRONGEST BUY at 16. And recommended to sell at 24. See how safe we are. Never mind, I am glad the analysts finally noticed a great winner- the chips that go into the GPS device have got to win when the GPS device maker is makin 52 week highs... (GRMN)... Besides SIRF makes chips that also go into cell phones... so thats a double win I would say. Does not help chasing a stock thats already made good money for me. Just improves my confidence in being ahead of the market. SIRF soars to 30 from 25... but I will not chase it here.
Citi earnings were a non event. Breathing a sigh of relief that the stock did not tank ... Obviously the financials are done going down. LEH is my pick- at 63. Will be patient with this one.
And just for a risky momentum trade- am buying YGE- a solar stock -thats undervalued if the YAHOO finance numbers are right. (I am skeptical) Yahoo finance says its got a forward P.E. of 6? Ouch... that hurts when FSLR is trading at P.E. of more than a 100... ! YGE is trading at 32... and going down right now- against the rules am buying a stock as it goes down. In at 31.7. Downside is 25- if all goes well. But upside - well... lets just say 45... if the market continues to love solar.
Awaiting YHOO earnings tomorrow. If that does not make this market pullback... there will be more worries as more earnings unfold. Lets re-assess tomorrow. Meanwhile... happy trading... theres no better time than now to make a trade and some money with mona on your side...
Citi earnings were a non event. Breathing a sigh of relief that the stock did not tank ... Obviously the financials are done going down. LEH is my pick- at 63. Will be patient with this one.
And just for a risky momentum trade- am buying YGE- a solar stock -thats undervalued if the YAHOO finance numbers are right. (I am skeptical) Yahoo finance says its got a forward P.E. of 6? Ouch... that hurts when FSLR is trading at P.E. of more than a 100... ! YGE is trading at 32... and going down right now- against the rules am buying a stock as it goes down. In at 31.7. Downside is 25- if all goes well. But upside - well... lets just say 45... if the market continues to love solar.
Awaiting YHOO earnings tomorrow. If that does not make this market pullback... there will be more worries as more earnings unfold. Lets re-assess tomorrow. Meanwhile... happy trading... theres no better time than now to make a trade and some money with mona on your side...
EARNINGS SEASON
CASH is king and CASH reigns during earnings season. No matter how intuitive you may be, if you are a trader or short term investor, why would ya hold onto a stock ahead of the earnings train. All you save is brokerage. All you can lose is the hard earned money you made during the quarter.
The furious moves that a stock can make after the earnings is a great trade by itself so its tempting to buy ahead of the earnings. And make a killing if the earnings are good. NO NO NO. It does not work like that. Three factors are a must for a stock to move higher after the earnings:
1,The earnings have to be better than the street expects and better than the whisper number which is a tad bit even higher than the street expectations. HA.
2.The stock price should not have moved up ahead of the earnings.
3.And the forward guidance or the future earnings better be good.
Thats simple. But once these three factors are taken care of, the
market has other issues that can stifle a rally. Say, the sentiment of the conference call that follows the earnings release. The buyback or lack of a buyback announcement. The revenue numbers and the estimates going forward. And so on and so forth.
Over and above the earnings... with the major indices having rallied to highs...not seen in years... this time around, I see more chances of a pullback regardless of earnings. So I am a seller on rallies rather than a buyer on pullbacks. And can patiently await more critical points to buy stock for the longer term.
Lets see how it goes. CITIGROUP reports before the market opens. The worst case will be in the numbers. Whether we get a CEO resignation is a question? The stock price action on C will guide us on how to play the financials.
Housing stocks are a safe bet. Ironical to say that when the economy recession looms on their status. But these are trading at 25% discount to their book values... and one wonders if no recovery will ever ensue. One good housing number can rock these stocks is my take. SO am in DHI at 14 and TOL at 22.5 for now.
More after the maket opens tomorrow.... just a buyer beware post ahead of the earnings. Even if the earnings are good and 4th qtr numbers are good, theres lots of issues to mull upon- like FED to cut or not to cut end of the month.... , housing recovery- to be or not to be-, Oil rally to continue or not to... , subprime woes off radar or not... TOO MANY `or not's to grapple with...
SO watching the market moves will help us consolidate our sentiments... and our money...
Read and write... Its now open to all to comment. As I learn more about the technicals of blogging, it will be more interactive, I guess. For newcomers I suggest you scroll down to the first blog to know what monas is all about. ...! We have had a stellar run since the fall of AUGUST. I am happy!
The furious moves that a stock can make after the earnings is a great trade by itself so its tempting to buy ahead of the earnings. And make a killing if the earnings are good. NO NO NO. It does not work like that. Three factors are a must for a stock to move higher after the earnings:
1,The earnings have to be better than the street expects and better than the whisper number which is a tad bit even higher than the street expectations. HA.
2.The stock price should not have moved up ahead of the earnings.
3.And the forward guidance or the future earnings better be good.
Thats simple. But once these three factors are taken care of, the
market has other issues that can stifle a rally. Say, the sentiment of the conference call that follows the earnings release. The buyback or lack of a buyback announcement. The revenue numbers and the estimates going forward. And so on and so forth.
Over and above the earnings... with the major indices having rallied to highs...not seen in years... this time around, I see more chances of a pullback regardless of earnings. So I am a seller on rallies rather than a buyer on pullbacks. And can patiently await more critical points to buy stock for the longer term.
Lets see how it goes. CITIGROUP reports before the market opens. The worst case will be in the numbers. Whether we get a CEO resignation is a question? The stock price action on C will guide us on how to play the financials.
Housing stocks are a safe bet. Ironical to say that when the economy recession looms on their status. But these are trading at 25% discount to their book values... and one wonders if no recovery will ever ensue. One good housing number can rock these stocks is my take. SO am in DHI at 14 and TOL at 22.5 for now.
More after the maket opens tomorrow.... just a buyer beware post ahead of the earnings. Even if the earnings are good and 4th qtr numbers are good, theres lots of issues to mull upon- like FED to cut or not to cut end of the month.... , housing recovery- to be or not to be-, Oil rally to continue or not to... , subprime woes off radar or not... TOO MANY `or not's to grapple with...
SO watching the market moves will help us consolidate our sentiments... and our money...
Read and write... Its now open to all to comment. As I learn more about the technicals of blogging, it will be more interactive, I guess. For newcomers I suggest you scroll down to the first blog to know what monas is all about. ...! We have had a stellar run since the fall of AUGUST. I am happy!
Friday, October 12, 2007
REVERSAL.... YESSS.....
Yesterday the stock market suffered a classic reversal. Up and up and up all morning and no signs of a pullback. I had a `feeling' (feelings are turning out to be my achilles heel, believe it or not) that the market would close in the red. But was wondering what on God's green earth would turn the market around ... as I stepped out for the day. Volatility is missing too.... wonder whats gonna make the market go red... I mumbled to myself as I got busy with some chores.
Late evening when I checked on the market moves- was pleased that the pullback did occur in a severe way. Could never have predicted that a downgrade on BIDU would be the trigger. The point is that BIDU was just the medium... the market was overbought and any such news on a hi-flier was enough to affect the sentiment to swoon.
Late evening when I checked on the market moves- was pleased that the pullback did occur in a severe way. Could never have predicted that a downgrade on BIDU would be the trigger. The point is that BIDU was just the medium... the market was overbought and any such news on a hi-flier was enough to affect the sentiment to swoon.
A recovery today will be short lived is my humble opinion. Like it or not am a seller. Cannot risk losing money so am out of CSCO at 33 and OVTI at 24.5 though my targets were 35 and 27 .... will get a chance to buy cheaper as the earnings season pulls the market down to better levels. And remember cash is king and can be used when the next big opportunity arrives.
Am still long on AKAM and LLNW. We are in at 30 and 10 on these. LLNW raised its estimates last evening. Thanked my crystal ball for the small mercy. AKAM is 36 and LLNW is 12.5 today... am happy and secure as these are in the right growth sector and competition or not streaming media is hot.
Be that as it may, our short positions have started working. CHNR- the second round made more money. Shorted at 45 again and will try to cover today at 35 (its 38 now). We bought puts on NILE, November $100 $3.50 a piece. The stock price dived from 100 to 89... in the last two days, the puts soared to $7 and we doubled our money- (100% return in two weeks... YAY HOO). Am not greedy though I know they can go to 15 if NILE dives another 10 points, am takin my profits and laughing to the bank, so to say. With the money am buying some puts on SLB (Schlumberger - oil service company) the November $100 puts at 1.80 are cheap. Just on valuation and good oil prices and prospects priced in already.
New ideas- ENER at 26 may be a good idea. Its Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. It commercializes stuff for alternative energy, energy storage, and information technology markets. It contributes to the solar sector- ! Though I think much of the solar power is priced in the high flying solar stocks like FSLR (we have puts on this one...too) and JASO and SPWR ...! You can get badly hurt and I dont recommend these solar stocks anymore. Not after seeing LDK (OUCH -LDK has been one sharp falling knife- from 70s to 40s... in less than a month) slide. The others will follow suit... one of these days when the market reverses and goes lower for couple of days. But all thats solar is not to be sold. So a play like ENER thats closer to the 52 week low- and pickin up steam... is a good idea with lower downside risk. Am buying some at 26 to start with. And will watch for a pull back to add more. Target price is 30 in a month.
Thats it for today. Fall is here, be it for the weather or for the market, got to make the most of both. Meanwhile, do post your comments. Correct me when I am wrong. Chide me when I brag. Applaud me when I make some money for you. Got to learn to keep the sentiment happy- its only money.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
MOMENTUM....
Bought VCLK this morning at 28. Jim Cramer reminded me of this one. The last time this one moved straight up to 36 from the mid 20s - that was the time when the talk of takeovers was on- AQNT was bought at a good premium.... and VCLK went higher by extension. Nothin much happened then... and as reality sunk in.... it traded down all the way to 19. Did Cramer ask us to buy at that price?? No too low.... and too much out of favor. As the bargain hunters came in the stock slowly moved back above 20 to 23-24.... and then Cramer pulled the trigger on this one reminding us that this one was a potential take over candidate- being in the online ad sector and the numbers looked good again... It was 25 or so then. After Cramer spoke it popped to 27 ... and when I look at the charts looks like free ride to 32...and then with the 52 week high close at hand... more shorts will cover .... and up up up goes the stock.
This is a clear example of a stock moving up 10-15 points on no real news. Just speculation. I am in at 28... but keeping a close watch. Target price is 32... but may get 35...?
I was right on the money. STV went up 12 bucks yesterday- and we took our profits. From 42 to 52 in a day, is good going for me. Does not mean it does not go higher... these days anything chinese and with positive outlooks just trade higher and higher... till they defy gravity and still stay there .... thats how bubbles are made. When they pop people get hurt. Traders dont. As we are in and out quickly.
The only buy and hold for me was CSCO and AKAM. CSCO slow and steady from 28 to 33 feels good. Am out at 34.99 if it does reach there soon. And AKAM from 28 to 37 feels divine... more so as the upside here will be fast and furious. My target is 45... in a month if not sooner. YAY... we are still doing fine with our money.... could not get better I should say.
Earnings season began with a whimper- Alcoa missed estimates- OOOOH...but not much damage was done as the company announced a buyback... worth billions of dollars... Ha. Told ya its complicated. Miss your numbers? Announce a buy back so the street does not shoot... ya.
AA has done going up is my opinion. Close to 40 is peakin for now.
Yhoo is at 28. We had a ride from 23 to 28. Not bad. Earnings come in tomorrow. Would not hold this one before earnings so am all cash. Switched from Yhoo to VCLK at the same price. If VCLK can go from 28 to 30 without much ado why buy Yahoo is my theory.....YHOO is out of favor for long, so more reason to hold on but until the street acknowldeges theres going to be too much wait. I would rather buy if it pops to 30 knowing it goes higher. More after it reports earnings.
Thats all from me at the moment. Wish someone would comment so I know they are reading. Monas crytal ball is getting bearish... not for a full fledged sell off but a decent pullback.... maybe DOW 13600 and NASDAQ to 2700 or so... Thank you for reading...
This is a clear example of a stock moving up 10-15 points on no real news. Just speculation. I am in at 28... but keeping a close watch. Target price is 32... but may get 35...?
I was right on the money. STV went up 12 bucks yesterday- and we took our profits. From 42 to 52 in a day, is good going for me. Does not mean it does not go higher... these days anything chinese and with positive outlooks just trade higher and higher... till they defy gravity and still stay there .... thats how bubbles are made. When they pop people get hurt. Traders dont. As we are in and out quickly.
The only buy and hold for me was CSCO and AKAM. CSCO slow and steady from 28 to 33 feels good. Am out at 34.99 if it does reach there soon. And AKAM from 28 to 37 feels divine... more so as the upside here will be fast and furious. My target is 45... in a month if not sooner. YAY... we are still doing fine with our money.... could not get better I should say.
Earnings season began with a whimper- Alcoa missed estimates- OOOOH...but not much damage was done as the company announced a buyback... worth billions of dollars... Ha. Told ya its complicated. Miss your numbers? Announce a buy back so the street does not shoot... ya.
AA has done going up is my opinion. Close to 40 is peakin for now.
Yhoo is at 28. We had a ride from 23 to 28. Not bad. Earnings come in tomorrow. Would not hold this one before earnings so am all cash. Switched from Yhoo to VCLK at the same price. If VCLK can go from 28 to 30 without much ado why buy Yahoo is my theory.....YHOO is out of favor for long, so more reason to hold on but until the street acknowldeges theres going to be too much wait. I would rather buy if it pops to 30 knowing it goes higher. More after it reports earnings.
Thats all from me at the moment. Wish someone would comment so I know they are reading. Monas crytal ball is getting bearish... not for a full fledged sell off but a decent pullback.... maybe DOW 13600 and NASDAQ to 2700 or so... Thank you for reading...
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
MOMENTUM-CHINA $$
China sure spells m.om.e.n.t.u.m these days. IPOs are being rewarded unbelievably. Case in point- STV. the CHINA Digital TV company listed on the NYSE Monday. IPO price was a mere $16 -it closed at 28 or so on its debut. Next day soared to 40. Where is it heading? With BIDU at all time highs- following the GOOGLE path... looks like this ones in the right country- The stock price has got a run rate of 12 bucks a day. So lets say, back of the envelope calculation for STV gives me 52 tomorrow (I should say today- as its 2 a.m. Oct 8) and then 64 the day after? When does one sell? Just before the momentum is over and out. How do you know that. You almost never know when- so you usually get burnt. Unless you start selling at the first sign of a fall- not a pullback.
The jist of it is theres loads of money to be made in the chinese stocks. I watched CHNR - China Natural Resources- move from 10 to 50 in a week- and I knew this ones going to get busted, momentum or no momentum. Shorted at 47 on monday (see mondays blog) Covered at 35 in a day. Like I said theres loads of money to be made either way on these chinese stocks, as long as you get in and out at the right time... TIMING is everything. I would not be caught long in my short position though I think it could go back to the 20s before we know it.
I would certainly not recommend playing such hi-fliers on the long side unless you hedge your position by buying put options somewhere down the line... but most of these new companies will not offer you that as yet. So watching helps. Trading in and out while the momentum is on can be a winning strategy as long as the stock continues going up.
Its just another madness in the market that I am sounding an alert on- momentum is madness... and it certainly moves a stock fast...and traders who follow the price movement of a stock actually buy stocks that have risen a lot in price... that adds to the momentum and the stock can go still higher.
The jist of it is theres loads of money to be made in the chinese stocks. I watched CHNR - China Natural Resources- move from 10 to 50 in a week- and I knew this ones going to get busted, momentum or no momentum. Shorted at 47 on monday (see mondays blog) Covered at 35 in a day. Like I said theres loads of money to be made either way on these chinese stocks, as long as you get in and out at the right time... TIMING is everything. I would not be caught long in my short position though I think it could go back to the 20s before we know it.
I would certainly not recommend playing such hi-fliers on the long side unless you hedge your position by buying put options somewhere down the line... but most of these new companies will not offer you that as yet. So watching helps. Trading in and out while the momentum is on can be a winning strategy as long as the stock continues going up.
Its just another madness in the market that I am sounding an alert on- momentum is madness... and it certainly moves a stock fast...and traders who follow the price movement of a stock actually buy stocks that have risen a lot in price... that adds to the momentum and the stock can go still higher.
These days I am getting a sense that the market is overbought. Theres the earnings comin up this week- ALCOA being the first one tomorrow... and still theres been no pullback or fear. I am happy with cash though its tempting to get pulled into the momentum.
FINANCIALS- Lehman looks good to me. Its settled down around 62- may not be a bad idea to buy some- for long term... can easily pull off 70 - with not much risk on the downside.
AKAM- is finally moving up- was a dead stock at 30 beaten down- from a high of almost $60... its the internet media delivery leader...crushed due to competition fears- is finally moving up= 34 today. If the momentum returns to this one- mid 40s is not far away.... Theres analysts who say sell and analysts who say buy. I am in this one at 30 and will stay with it till it reaches 40 this month... wish I could be more humble. To sway the fear of competition lets buy the newbie - LLNW= Limelight networks trading at 10 or so. So one way or the other we make money- got to love the sector- delivering video- graphics-music... includes Apples ITUNES... whats not to like.
Theres nervousness out there.... would stay away from everything other than beaten down stocks... that have shown life... cuz they are the ones that will continue rising... when the hi-fliers start to correct.
Correct or wrong... we shall see... high anziety- spells more rallies- watch out for every bear to get bullish... takin the market to new heights. We shall watch and stand by to applause that move- and be all cash - will let you know one of these days, says Mona, thats me.
Friday, October 5, 2007
KUDOS- job numbers...
HA HA HA HA HA HA.... cant help but laugh out loud. The job numbers which were declared at - 4000 last month- which means that the economy lost 4000 jobs ... . - well, these were revised to a new number that says the economy actually added 89000 jobs last month. Now were the economist gurus more accurate maybe the FED may not have eased interest rates by 50 basis points ... when it did in September. That was triggered off by the bad job numbers among other pressures I guess. A negative jobs report is dicey- well it was WRONG. The ecnomomy added 89000 jobs ... get it?
Today they said the economy added 110000 in September. And we are on our way to record territory as far as the stock market is concerned. Whats good for the sentiment is good for the economy. If God forbid these numbers are revised next month ... who is to know... whether the rally is justified.
DOW up to 14065. NASDAQ upto 2773... S& P upto 1555... WILL NOT LAST is my prognosis.
For me, I am a seller again. Sold some of SIRF... from 16 to 24 is good for me... Will find a new entry point below 23... for the cash raised. Or move to a greener pasture. Am out of BRCM... thats been good to me... from 32 to 38... ! AM holding onto GLW which we bought at 24... its 25.8... and am a seller at 27 next week. I still await for CSCO to break out. My prediction of DOW 14000 and CSCO 35 on the same day was wrong. CSCO touched 33 and change and is sulking again at 32. Must have been some analyst's downgrade at the wrong time.
CHNR is my new short. Shorted at 47 today... its a china stock gone out of whack. Up from 10 to 50 in a week spells SELL for me. SLB- the oil services company is getting pricey- am buying puts...
Am sticking with my housing stocks... DHI and TOL and for technology SNDK looks good at 52.
End of week, another number out of the way. Maybe next week we still rally a bit more... and then pause as the earnings releases start. Thats cause for all the selling I have done. Will watch for the next opportunity and bring it to this blog.
Meanwhile... stay tuned...for more laughs .... at monasmadmarket...
Today they said the economy added 110000 in September. And we are on our way to record territory as far as the stock market is concerned. Whats good for the sentiment is good for the economy. If God forbid these numbers are revised next month ... who is to know... whether the rally is justified.
DOW up to 14065. NASDAQ upto 2773... S& P upto 1555... WILL NOT LAST is my prognosis.
For me, I am a seller again. Sold some of SIRF... from 16 to 24 is good for me... Will find a new entry point below 23... for the cash raised. Or move to a greener pasture. Am out of BRCM... thats been good to me... from 32 to 38... ! AM holding onto GLW which we bought at 24... its 25.8... and am a seller at 27 next week. I still await for CSCO to break out. My prediction of DOW 14000 and CSCO 35 on the same day was wrong. CSCO touched 33 and change and is sulking again at 32. Must have been some analyst's downgrade at the wrong time.
CHNR is my new short. Shorted at 47 today... its a china stock gone out of whack. Up from 10 to 50 in a week spells SELL for me. SLB- the oil services company is getting pricey- am buying puts...
Am sticking with my housing stocks... DHI and TOL and for technology SNDK looks good at 52.
End of week, another number out of the way. Maybe next week we still rally a bit more... and then pause as the earnings releases start. Thats cause for all the selling I have done. Will watch for the next opportunity and bring it to this blog.
Meanwhile... stay tuned...for more laughs .... at monasmadmarket...
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
SERIOUS MONEY
If only people listened. The housing stocks are up again 3 days in a row.
Cannot believe it. KBH from 25.7 to 29.30 in 3 days- am sure glad I bought some. Pitched it as my long term play but my target of 30 is almost met. Selling some for a re-entry if housing tanks again makes sense. And the rest can steadily go up with the momentum. When a sector truly bottoms, no one tells you (cept me of course). Am getting good at it I hope.
The market is flirting with 14000- and will do it I think until friday when the employment numbers come out. Regardless of the numbers, good or bad, I think there will be a bit of a pullback. Lets see.
GRMN I was right- a pullback was not a good buy at 105. Its 98... and I am throwing this one out of my radar. Risk is too high with market sentiment being fearful on this one. We were lucky to get out at 120. Am glad greed is not part of my trading equation.
Am watching the financials- recovering slowly. A pullback on more talk of subprime messes... will be a good entry point. Of the financials, I am watching LEH forming a trading range = 60 to 65. Hmmmmmm.
All in all, we raised some more cash. Waiting for the pullback- to buy for the year end rally. Also waiting for signs of a slowdown in the earnings releases that start next week- and lowering of estimates. If that does not make the market pull back... enjoy the ride until its time to short. A short term short I am being bold by adding XOM to my list. At 92 its safe to short... as oil prices may also come down from highs if the slowdown does materialize.
Good going... for now. Hope it continues. More tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Cannot believe it. KBH from 25.7 to 29.30 in 3 days- am sure glad I bought some. Pitched it as my long term play but my target of 30 is almost met. Selling some for a re-entry if housing tanks again makes sense. And the rest can steadily go up with the momentum. When a sector truly bottoms, no one tells you (cept me of course). Am getting good at it I hope.
The market is flirting with 14000- and will do it I think until friday when the employment numbers come out. Regardless of the numbers, good or bad, I think there will be a bit of a pullback. Lets see.
GRMN I was right- a pullback was not a good buy at 105. Its 98... and I am throwing this one out of my radar. Risk is too high with market sentiment being fearful on this one. We were lucky to get out at 120. Am glad greed is not part of my trading equation.
Am watching the financials- recovering slowly. A pullback on more talk of subprime messes... will be a good entry point. Of the financials, I am watching LEH forming a trading range = 60 to 65. Hmmmmmm.
All in all, we raised some more cash. Waiting for the pullback- to buy for the year end rally. Also waiting for signs of a slowdown in the earnings releases that start next week- and lowering of estimates. If that does not make the market pull back... enjoy the ride until its time to short. A short term short I am being bold by adding XOM to my list. At 92 its safe to short... as oil prices may also come down from highs if the slowdown does materialize.
Good going... for now. Hope it continues. More tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
HOUSING relief breeze feels good...
Some more painful housing numbers were out this morning. The worst seems to be in the market is the prognosis. I said that before. They are saying it now. Its a wild guess. But such sentiments bode well for a sector that is beaten down, mutilated, crushed to death- 80 % down in some cases is not bear market territory -its the funeral ground. But I see some life in our pick DHI -we were in and out and in again at 13 last week. It is up to 14.70 today- will wait till 16.50, nothing less to close the trade. While no one was lookin I also sneaked in and bought some KBH -another beaten down home builder which has a strong balance sheet- that spells survival. This could be a long term pick - to build a long term portfolio from the trading profits is no risk... only reward if we wait patiently. So while I trade DHI, I will hold KBH for longer... my cost is 25.7 from yesterday. It rallied to 27.5 today with the other home builders. I am hoping for 30 + if not more if I wait.
OVTI- the company that makes cell phone camera sensor chips- is ready to break out. Actually in at 19- and its up to 24, I should be taking profits. But it has some positive news today -launching a new image sensor with anti-shake capacity. Anti-shake comes into play in low-light situations when cameras need a longer exposure time and therefore a steadier hand. When camera phones using the sensor detect the slightest camera movement, image stabilization will activate, the sensor will help to prevent image blur and the end result will be sharper images. It sounds good to me. So I figure those who read the news will buy today and shorts will run for cover- love it when that happens to a stock I own. The technicals show no resistance to 27.7 I think. So am safe with this one. Selling at 27 -this week. Ha. Lets see.
Rest is okay. Dow 14100 almost yesterday was stellar - and I think we peak before we pullback. Wont be surprized if we go up steadily every day... If homebuilders are bottoming and financials are feeling more comfortable tackling the subprime messes in their stride... and technology ceos booming and global demand intact.... whats not to like.
Yay... I am happy with my 30th consecutive post... got my confidence back and hope the few readers of monas market psyche made some money... Be in synch with monas ink... it wont be tough no more.
OVTI- the company that makes cell phone camera sensor chips- is ready to break out. Actually in at 19- and its up to 24, I should be taking profits. But it has some positive news today -launching a new image sensor with anti-shake capacity. Anti-shake comes into play in low-light situations when cameras need a longer exposure time and therefore a steadier hand. When camera phones using the sensor detect the slightest camera movement, image stabilization will activate, the sensor will help to prevent image blur and the end result will be sharper images. It sounds good to me. So I figure those who read the news will buy today and shorts will run for cover- love it when that happens to a stock I own. The technicals show no resistance to 27.7 I think. So am safe with this one. Selling at 27 -this week. Ha. Lets see.
Rest is okay. Dow 14100 almost yesterday was stellar - and I think we peak before we pullback. Wont be surprized if we go up steadily every day... If homebuilders are bottoming and financials are feeling more comfortable tackling the subprime messes in their stride... and technology ceos booming and global demand intact.... whats not to like.
Yay... I am happy with my 30th consecutive post... got my confidence back and hope the few readers of monas market psyche made some money... Be in synch with monas ink... it wont be tough no more.
Monday, October 1, 2007
DOW 14000 just as predicted on Friday...
This is becoming easy. DOW 14000 this morning welcoming the new quarter just as I mentioned on Friday. Bet it wont stay above 14000. So I am a seller to sleep easy as the earnings season begins. Could not have timed it better.
Indian ADRs voilavoilahoo ya... IBN at a 52 week high- some were skeptical about this pick- an Indian ICICI bank that was going cheap under 25 last year... is too high at 38... but turned out one of my best safe and sound picks- selling at 53.5 today. Would not have found this opportunity but for the mortgage mess that led the market to crushed levels in august when I started my blog. The other Indian ADR I was bragging about= TATA motors at 15. Its trading at 19.5 - not bad. AM selling for now. And will watch closely. INFY, the infotech leader from INDIA, INFOSY tech= nearing 50 today. Too much resistance at this level coupled with the fear of the currency depression in earnings as the rupee is stronger... has slowed this one. In at 44 and am going to sell half my position at 50. Will watch and probably get 53 if shorts start covering ... and if not, I may buy again this month at 47 if it affords the opportunity again.
If the market dips as it reaches frothy levels- too far too fast, may make some money by buying puts. That is options to sell a stock. Am buying puts on FSLR= First Solar... It broke out to a new high of 125. The P/E over a 100 is a bit unjustified. It can dive 20 bucks in a day if it does not perform on earnings date. For that day... a few November 100 puts seem a good enough risk at #3.30 a piece. Maximum I lose is $3.30 per option. With all the money we made this month- whats a $3000 loss. So we buy 10 puts. And watch very closely. NILE is the other one I would like to short. Its the online diamond retailer. Richly valued and momentum driven, with a forward P.E of above 75 am wondering if in shaky slowdown times, the growth can be sustained. Am watching and buying the November 85 puts for $3.5 a piece.
Still have cash on hand... no new long picks. AM happy with my holdings for now CSCO, BRCM, GLW, OVTI, SIRF, YHOO and beaten down DHI and ETFC.
And am certainly happy I was not greedy with lofty GRMN and got out at 120 +. The stock is down 13 to 106 today- wonderful. Thought I would wait for a pull back to 110 or so to buy this one back. But its down not on profit taking, but on news so I will watch till the dust settles. Maybe one more down drift to under 100 is not ruled out. The news is- NOK buying NAVTEQ- the GPS software company. NOK growing stronger in GPS navigation on its phones... spells competition for GRMN. The fear is a bit realistic when I think GRMN provides a stand alone GPS vs. NOK and the like incorporating the navigation into the phones- if that catches on...may spell trouble for GRMN... somewhere down the line. For now am watching. If the momentum is driven out I would just move onto a better stock. This exemplifies my mantra of not being married to any stock. Got to drop it like a hot potato if the market starts losing its love for it.
Yes. Thats the game. Stay tuned... this week is emplyment numbers week so expecting back and forth below and above 14000 on the dow... easy.
Indian ADRs voilavoilahoo ya... IBN at a 52 week high- some were skeptical about this pick- an Indian ICICI bank that was going cheap under 25 last year... is too high at 38... but turned out one of my best safe and sound picks- selling at 53.5 today. Would not have found this opportunity but for the mortgage mess that led the market to crushed levels in august when I started my blog. The other Indian ADR I was bragging about= TATA motors at 15. Its trading at 19.5 - not bad. AM selling for now. And will watch closely. INFY, the infotech leader from INDIA, INFOSY tech= nearing 50 today. Too much resistance at this level coupled with the fear of the currency depression in earnings as the rupee is stronger... has slowed this one. In at 44 and am going to sell half my position at 50. Will watch and probably get 53 if shorts start covering ... and if not, I may buy again this month at 47 if it affords the opportunity again.
If the market dips as it reaches frothy levels- too far too fast, may make some money by buying puts. That is options to sell a stock. Am buying puts on FSLR= First Solar... It broke out to a new high of 125. The P/E over a 100 is a bit unjustified. It can dive 20 bucks in a day if it does not perform on earnings date. For that day... a few November 100 puts seem a good enough risk at #3.30 a piece. Maximum I lose is $3.30 per option. With all the money we made this month- whats a $3000 loss. So we buy 10 puts. And watch very closely. NILE is the other one I would like to short. Its the online diamond retailer. Richly valued and momentum driven, with a forward P.E of above 75 am wondering if in shaky slowdown times, the growth can be sustained. Am watching and buying the November 85 puts for $3.5 a piece.
Still have cash on hand... no new long picks. AM happy with my holdings for now CSCO, BRCM, GLW, OVTI, SIRF, YHOO and beaten down DHI and ETFC.
And am certainly happy I was not greedy with lofty GRMN and got out at 120 +. The stock is down 13 to 106 today- wonderful. Thought I would wait for a pull back to 110 or so to buy this one back. But its down not on profit taking, but on news so I will watch till the dust settles. Maybe one more down drift to under 100 is not ruled out. The news is- NOK buying NAVTEQ- the GPS software company. NOK growing stronger in GPS navigation on its phones... spells competition for GRMN. The fear is a bit realistic when I think GRMN provides a stand alone GPS vs. NOK and the like incorporating the navigation into the phones- if that catches on...may spell trouble for GRMN... somewhere down the line. For now am watching. If the momentum is driven out I would just move onto a better stock. This exemplifies my mantra of not being married to any stock. Got to drop it like a hot potato if the market starts losing its love for it.
Yes. Thats the game. Stay tuned... this week is emplyment numbers week so expecting back and forth below and above 14000 on the dow... easy.
Friday, September 28, 2007
END OF QUARTER... relief
Today is the last trading day of the third quarter. Window dressing was on this week. That means portfolio managers bought the winners and sold the losers, sort of, to look good on paper. SO by extension next week will be exact opposite as they buy the losers that have potential of becoming winners and sell the winners that have run up enough.
In our trade, I have been buying the losers all along- housing for instance. DHI we had a good trade of buying at 13.8 and getting out at 16.5. Guess what some more housing numbers dismal they must be, pushed the stock all the way to under 13 and we picked up some more. Its still 13 today but technically when the relief breeze for housing blows one of these days again when they start talkin of more Fed easing... we know the stock goes upto 16.5 again if not more. Low downside is my idea of safe investing. God willing the company should not go bankrupt until next year if at all. Ha.
SIRF turned back and rallied again. Lovely. 18.50 brings me 21.5 today. Who said buy and hold was good. I love the stock, the sector, the lack of momentum that affords it to be trading at a low valuation. This one is ready to break out- this time it will go to 25 and then head for 30. Too much attention goin to GRMN, making a 52 week high every day- 122.78 today and once SIRF gets noticed it will soar is my humble opinion.
Dow 14000 -seeing it on the radar- maybe if people wake up a bit aftr a lack luster start, it may happen today itself. Or next week surely. Monday 10.20 am says my crystal ball, DOW will be close to 14050. Who is to stop me from dreaming. But seriously, it does seem a bit dicey with earnings for the 3rd quarter coming up as well.
Technology is my sector pick for the next quarter. Energy seems to be at a peaky level. Oil near term tops at $85. And gold maybe stops at $750 though momentum can take it closer to $800 but not over that. But the money to be made in gold and energy is done for now is what I feel. With housing and finance in nervous mode, retail too dependent on the consumer, leaves technology safe and sound. The ones that have not rallied as much as the leaders will catch up so I would be in those. The leaders like AAPL, RIMM, GOOG are too high for my trading picks. If at all I may short them for they will fall harder if the market were to turn around and retreat. Would not be a bad idea to buy puts on the high fliers to hedge the longs.
Next week will be prepared to sell the winners and be in cash before the earnings start pouring out. At least sell half my positions and that will raise cash to buy the ones that get hammered too bad.
Lets cheer for the mad market, albeit, stellar and upbeat and near record levels... thats the spirit. VOILA....HALLA...HOO.
In our trade, I have been buying the losers all along- housing for instance. DHI we had a good trade of buying at 13.8 and getting out at 16.5. Guess what some more housing numbers dismal they must be, pushed the stock all the way to under 13 and we picked up some more. Its still 13 today but technically when the relief breeze for housing blows one of these days again when they start talkin of more Fed easing... we know the stock goes upto 16.5 again if not more. Low downside is my idea of safe investing. God willing the company should not go bankrupt until next year if at all. Ha.
SIRF turned back and rallied again. Lovely. 18.50 brings me 21.5 today. Who said buy and hold was good. I love the stock, the sector, the lack of momentum that affords it to be trading at a low valuation. This one is ready to break out- this time it will go to 25 and then head for 30. Too much attention goin to GRMN, making a 52 week high every day- 122.78 today and once SIRF gets noticed it will soar is my humble opinion.
Dow 14000 -seeing it on the radar- maybe if people wake up a bit aftr a lack luster start, it may happen today itself. Or next week surely. Monday 10.20 am says my crystal ball, DOW will be close to 14050. Who is to stop me from dreaming. But seriously, it does seem a bit dicey with earnings for the 3rd quarter coming up as well.
Technology is my sector pick for the next quarter. Energy seems to be at a peaky level. Oil near term tops at $85. And gold maybe stops at $750 though momentum can take it closer to $800 but not over that. But the money to be made in gold and energy is done for now is what I feel. With housing and finance in nervous mode, retail too dependent on the consumer, leaves technology safe and sound. The ones that have not rallied as much as the leaders will catch up so I would be in those. The leaders like AAPL, RIMM, GOOG are too high for my trading picks. If at all I may short them for they will fall harder if the market were to turn around and retreat. Would not be a bad idea to buy puts on the high fliers to hedge the longs.
Next week will be prepared to sell the winners and be in cash before the earnings start pouring out. At least sell half my positions and that will raise cash to buy the ones that get hammered too bad.
Lets cheer for the mad market, albeit, stellar and upbeat and near record levels... thats the spirit. VOILA....HALLA...HOO.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
CSCO 35 and DOW 14000
I have a feeeling CSCO goes to 35 and DOW to 14000 on the same day. No one cares about feelings, I know, but thought an intuitive feeling on a stock and index breaking out should be part of my blog.
CSCO has been dull even after John Chambers, the CEO has been upbeat- but looks like ready to breakout ... hovering around 32.50... I am in at 30 so will hold on though tis been a slow ride.
DOW 14000 is guaranteed may I say so before the next Fed meeting in October. The sentiment is very bullish it appears. So be it.
Cant say enough about TSL. Was in on Monday at 51, remember the trading range would change to 50-60. Well got a chance to sell at 60 in 2 days. Thats sure fire profits. You hear it here quite often- and laugh to the bank if you play it correctly. YEARS of trading teaches you to know the numbers - its surreal.
ETFC stopped falling. ITs 12 still. AM waiting for a move on the upside after being hammered. CRAMER said it was probably good to get in at this level so I am happy.
OVTI broke out - its heading to 28 in my humble opinion. Have spake about it earlier when it was 19- it was a no-brainer. GREAT earnings and upward guidance and no resistance over 22... so it had to go much higher. Am holding on.
Was wondering what to buy with the TSL money. Lets see, I have two names. AMDOCS, ticker symbol DOX at 35 and Corning GLW at 24 look to be safe plays for the ongoing rally.
Overall any pullback will not be worrisome until earnings season begin. And I have a feeling markets will rally through this earnings quarter. UH OH, feeling again... but thats what markets move on. MY feelings and your feelings. Lets all feel good while the going is good. A BIG correction will obviously follow some time but am not seeing it on the radar yet. So keep the smile on people. Happy days are still on.
Until tomorrow... hasta la vista-ooo.
CSCO has been dull even after John Chambers, the CEO has been upbeat- but looks like ready to breakout ... hovering around 32.50... I am in at 30 so will hold on though tis been a slow ride.
DOW 14000 is guaranteed may I say so before the next Fed meeting in October. The sentiment is very bullish it appears. So be it.
Cant say enough about TSL. Was in on Monday at 51, remember the trading range would change to 50-60. Well got a chance to sell at 60 in 2 days. Thats sure fire profits. You hear it here quite often- and laugh to the bank if you play it correctly. YEARS of trading teaches you to know the numbers - its surreal.
ETFC stopped falling. ITs 12 still. AM waiting for a move on the upside after being hammered. CRAMER said it was probably good to get in at this level so I am happy.
OVTI broke out - its heading to 28 in my humble opinion. Have spake about it earlier when it was 19- it was a no-brainer. GREAT earnings and upward guidance and no resistance over 22... so it had to go much higher. Am holding on.
Was wondering what to buy with the TSL money. Lets see, I have two names. AMDOCS, ticker symbol DOX at 35 and Corning GLW at 24 look to be safe plays for the ongoing rally.
Overall any pullback will not be worrisome until earnings season begin. And I have a feeling markets will rally through this earnings quarter. UH OH, feeling again... but thats what markets move on. MY feelings and your feelings. Lets all feel good while the going is good. A BIG correction will obviously follow some time but am not seeing it on the radar yet. So keep the smile on people. Happy days are still on.
Until tomorrow... hasta la vista-ooo.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Its time to navigate to the bank
Its time to navigate our trading ship to the bank laughing all the way... guess what I am using. The NUVI from GRMN. I dared to break my word yesterday- of speaking about GRMN at 112 though I had promised to keep my mouth shut until it touched 115. But the crystal ball was right. It did touch 115 briefly yesterday and so honored my blog. No surprize it reached 120 today. Thats momentum and short covering and like I said yesterday the explosive moves begin. But I am not greedy and sold some at 120 and wait for a pullback to re-enter.
It more than made up for my short term loss in ETFC. E TRADE financial - I was a bit chasing the herd and buying at the wrong price- I did mention I am not familiar with this one. I admit I was wrong. Its down 2 bucks at 12. And I am thinking maybe 10 is the bottom. Sometimes better to be safe than sorry, its lowering its numbers so does not bode well for trading. AM watching this week,if it does not move back a bit higher I will take a loss and will move onto tougher pastures.
We have to learn to not get stuck into positions which have an issue and go below our cost- to take a loss and move onto better prospects is a good idea. ITs the toughest thing to do but you can do it if you keep the attachment and emotion out of the trade. YOU are not married to any stock. You got to sell and buy another with an admission of error.
Housing numbers were bad. And guess what housing stock which had recovered nicely last week after the FED meet are all down lower than ever. I am a buyer of DHI at 13 and TOL at 19.5. with a tremor in my trunk... but cant miss the rebound when housing woes are all said, done and done and cant possibly get worse. That rebound is bound to happen- some day. We have holding power so its okay to buy and watch and wait.
The markets are dull - not much movement. My guess is they are lookin to the earnings reports which are two weeks away... already. Uh oh bad time to be holding stocks. So we will re-assess and raise more cash to buy the ones that get punished unreasonably... the best opportunity to buy presents itself every quarter after earnings... for those that beat the estimates handily and still fall. Lookin for CSCO, YHOO, EBAY, BRCM, OVTI to continue upward... into the earnings but if they go much higher before earnings, will SELL and be comfortable with cash.
Thats all for today... keeping watch on the DOW- for a spring up to 14000 and over... to happen soon.. hope you all are with me on that...
It more than made up for my short term loss in ETFC. E TRADE financial - I was a bit chasing the herd and buying at the wrong price- I did mention I am not familiar with this one. I admit I was wrong. Its down 2 bucks at 12. And I am thinking maybe 10 is the bottom. Sometimes better to be safe than sorry, its lowering its numbers so does not bode well for trading. AM watching this week,if it does not move back a bit higher I will take a loss and will move onto tougher pastures.
We have to learn to not get stuck into positions which have an issue and go below our cost- to take a loss and move onto better prospects is a good idea. ITs the toughest thing to do but you can do it if you keep the attachment and emotion out of the trade. YOU are not married to any stock. You got to sell and buy another with an admission of error.
Housing numbers were bad. And guess what housing stock which had recovered nicely last week after the FED meet are all down lower than ever. I am a buyer of DHI at 13 and TOL at 19.5. with a tremor in my trunk... but cant miss the rebound when housing woes are all said, done and done and cant possibly get worse. That rebound is bound to happen- some day. We have holding power so its okay to buy and watch and wait.
The markets are dull - not much movement. My guess is they are lookin to the earnings reports which are two weeks away... already. Uh oh bad time to be holding stocks. So we will re-assess and raise more cash to buy the ones that get punished unreasonably... the best opportunity to buy presents itself every quarter after earnings... for those that beat the estimates handily and still fall. Lookin for CSCO, YHOO, EBAY, BRCM, OVTI to continue upward... into the earnings but if they go much higher before earnings, will SELL and be comfortable with cash.
Thats all for today... keeping watch on the DOW- for a spring up to 14000 and over... to happen soon.. hope you all are with me on that...
Monday, September 24, 2007
SOLAR rally
Could not get more predictable. Solar momentum is back.
TSL crossed 50 on friday. Now the trading range is 50-60. Wont be surprized if TSL touches 55 today as shorts start scrambling to cover. AM in at 51.
Was not going to talk about GRMN until it reached 115- but am breaking my word. ITs 112 and I am beaming. GRMN took a nice pause in the 105 area. And theres no stopping it now. Its in the great growth GPS device sector- a leader and navigation devices are still not owned by one and all. It looks more to me like the beginning of an explosion.
I still am a believer of SIRF which is just beginning to come out of its slump. IT makes the chips that go into GRMN... Reached a 52 week low at 16 and change... and rushed up to 21 when an analyst gave a better view of it ... ITs 18.5 again... accumulating it is a good idea.
INFY= the Indian infotech play is sulking and has not participated in the relief rally. Still at 45 and change. The reason being the rupee appreciation not boding well for its earnings. With due respect to the valid reason, its a leader, its growing at a good pace and INDIA is back in formidable bull territory. I am pullin the trigger to BUY -downside is 42-43 but upside can be mid 50s at least toward the year end.
Its been all about picks. DOW 14000 is widely anticipated... should happen before the next FED meeting... in October and we take it from there. ITs a psychological number so its got to be reached... after such a great run from 12800 to 13800.... bulls should make it happen.
In and out - and cant go wrong.
Does not take much effort or time to just watch a bit and make a move. Mona is off again... will find some more stories for tomorrow. Meanwhile make the most of the madmarket moves and be alert and fearless... its only money.
TSL crossed 50 on friday. Now the trading range is 50-60. Wont be surprized if TSL touches 55 today as shorts start scrambling to cover. AM in at 51.
Was not going to talk about GRMN until it reached 115- but am breaking my word. ITs 112 and I am beaming. GRMN took a nice pause in the 105 area. And theres no stopping it now. Its in the great growth GPS device sector- a leader and navigation devices are still not owned by one and all. It looks more to me like the beginning of an explosion.
I still am a believer of SIRF which is just beginning to come out of its slump. IT makes the chips that go into GRMN... Reached a 52 week low at 16 and change... and rushed up to 21 when an analyst gave a better view of it ... ITs 18.5 again... accumulating it is a good idea.
INFY= the Indian infotech play is sulking and has not participated in the relief rally. Still at 45 and change. The reason being the rupee appreciation not boding well for its earnings. With due respect to the valid reason, its a leader, its growing at a good pace and INDIA is back in formidable bull territory. I am pullin the trigger to BUY -downside is 42-43 but upside can be mid 50s at least toward the year end.
Its been all about picks. DOW 14000 is widely anticipated... should happen before the next FED meeting... in October and we take it from there. ITs a psychological number so its got to be reached... after such a great run from 12800 to 13800.... bulls should make it happen.
In and out - and cant go wrong.
Does not take much effort or time to just watch a bit and make a move. Mona is off again... will find some more stories for tomorrow. Meanwhile make the most of the madmarket moves and be alert and fearless... its only money.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
WHEW... the relief at last
Was still sighing all day the relief thats written all over the markets.
Yesterday I took BID off the table. Recommended it at 42- hit 48 yesterday- 6 bucks per share in 2 days is good for me. The crystal ball is doing good for stock picking and I hope it continues.
Housing stocks rallied as Fed lowered rates. Bodes well as with lower rates mortgages will get cheaper. But we were ahead of the market so having bought DHI at 13.60 I thought it would be good to sell at 16.5 and raise cash.
Also gold rallied as anticipated. Its at 735 -looks strong. But a pull back can be expected. So am selling my AUY and NEM -we got in at 11 and 43...selling at 13 and 48...!
The DOW and S&P and NASDAQ rallied a bit too much the day of the rate cut. So, I expect some back and forth movement- best environment for trading again. But since the sentiment and perception of the economy is better now, BERNY on our side, dont expect triple digit moves any time soon. So I would watch individual stocks that are breaking out or see-sawing enought to get a trade.
I am watching TSL- the solar stock closely- nearing 50... its 49.5. If it goes over 50 I think the trading range changes- but will watch the move before I pull the trigger.
AKAM the streaming video player- which has been crushed beyond limits in my opinion is still struggling in the low 30s. With a little longer time horizon I am buying AKAM today at 30.9. Once it moves it will be furious.
Have never looked at ETFC- before- symbol for ETRADE financial- the online trading company looks good to me at 14 considering the market picks up and its valuation looks good to me with a forward P.E. under 10.
OVTI- is a semiconductor camera sensor maker- for phones... have menioned it before - looks like ready to break out if technology behaves itself. This one is cheap and the earnings are growing nicely with upside guidance by the company. Am watching it.
As the market digests the good news of the rate cut and before it figures out the good news came about as there was some bad news- (fear of recession) in the FED's mind.... we were in and out and have some cash now. Wait and watch .... stay tuned... for the next big move.
Yesterday I took BID off the table. Recommended it at 42- hit 48 yesterday- 6 bucks per share in 2 days is good for me. The crystal ball is doing good for stock picking and I hope it continues.
Housing stocks rallied as Fed lowered rates. Bodes well as with lower rates mortgages will get cheaper. But we were ahead of the market so having bought DHI at 13.60 I thought it would be good to sell at 16.5 and raise cash.
Also gold rallied as anticipated. Its at 735 -looks strong. But a pull back can be expected. So am selling my AUY and NEM -we got in at 11 and 43...selling at 13 and 48...!
The DOW and S&P and NASDAQ rallied a bit too much the day of the rate cut. So, I expect some back and forth movement- best environment for trading again. But since the sentiment and perception of the economy is better now, BERNY on our side, dont expect triple digit moves any time soon. So I would watch individual stocks that are breaking out or see-sawing enought to get a trade.
I am watching TSL- the solar stock closely- nearing 50... its 49.5. If it goes over 50 I think the trading range changes- but will watch the move before I pull the trigger.
AKAM the streaming video player- which has been crushed beyond limits in my opinion is still struggling in the low 30s. With a little longer time horizon I am buying AKAM today at 30.9. Once it moves it will be furious.
Have never looked at ETFC- before- symbol for ETRADE financial- the online trading company looks good to me at 14 considering the market picks up and its valuation looks good to me with a forward P.E. under 10.
OVTI- is a semiconductor camera sensor maker- for phones... have menioned it before - looks like ready to break out if technology behaves itself. This one is cheap and the earnings are growing nicely with upside guidance by the company. Am watching it.
As the market digests the good news of the rate cut and before it figures out the good news came about as there was some bad news- (fear of recession) in the FED's mind.... we were in and out and have some cash now. Wait and watch .... stay tuned... for the next big move.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
I told YA-RELIEF RALLY- FED BERNY IS MY FRIEND
AS you all know the FED cut rates by 50 basis points. AND boy, did the markets rally? ACROSS THE BOARD -stocks, commodities, bonds... all rallied. OVERSEAS will rally tonite. This is nirvana.
I AM A SELLER into the rally. Not that it does not continue. But best time to raise cash is now. Besides as the relief came all my targets are met on the dot- DOW 13600, NASDAQ 2530 and S&P 1500...
HOUSING and FINANCE stocks rallied- did I say we had touched the bottom. If only more bulls and bears heeded my advice. Never a bull or a bear will I be named- I am fine as the elephant who watches and acts cautiously. Sometimes all it does is raise its trunk and say VOILAHOO-A.
So long as I need a much deserved break after having said it all before it happened... Laughing all the way, counting the money we made in the trades will take all evening. So stay tuned for the next move.
I dare say it will still be up. Market and media will start talkin of new highs- so fast they forget the subprime fears and the R-word- yup, recession. Where'd that go?
I AM A SELLER into the rally. Not that it does not continue. But best time to raise cash is now. Besides as the relief came all my targets are met on the dot- DOW 13600, NASDAQ 2530 and S&P 1500...
HOUSING and FINANCE stocks rallied- did I say we had touched the bottom. If only more bulls and bears heeded my advice. Never a bull or a bear will I be named- I am fine as the elephant who watches and acts cautiously. Sometimes all it does is raise its trunk and say VOILAHOO-A.
So long as I need a much deserved break after having said it all before it happened... Laughing all the way, counting the money we made in the trades will take all evening. So stay tuned for the next move.
I dare say it will still be up. Market and media will start talkin of new highs- so fast they forget the subprime fears and the R-word- yup, recession. Where'd that go?
Monday, September 17, 2007
GREENSPAN speaks... market tanks... HA
WHY on earth one wonders the FORMER (stressing on `former') Fed Chairman would get so much coverage a day before the current Fed meeting? To get the market shaken up a bit in case it was not already done doing that all of last month. No doubt the market is sulking and down... across the board as Greenspan speaks.
All I can say is what Berny says tomorrow will be more important and what he does will move the markets. The knee jerk reaction (as some would like to put it) will be a rally or a slump whatever the bears and bulls choose for it to be. But a relief rally is coming up this week is my prognosis. Once we wait so much for an event, such as the fed cut... when we get it we sigh a relief. THATS the relief rally.
Obviously if the Fed does not cut rates tomorrow- the markets will crash all over the world. AND if the underlying meaning of not cutting is that the economy is firing on strong cylinders... then one wonders why the markets would crash. TO the trader it will spell opportunity... again. Whats to lose?
SIRF took profits on friday at 20.5, believe it or not its below 19 again- its not a pull back - its profit taking. Whats the difference, if I sold at 20.5 I will buy at 19 with all my might. Thats what I did today.
MNST =33.4 and YHOO=24.7 are doing well. YHOO moves above 25 today is my humble intuitive prediction. I will hold on to both positions.
Whats the big deal - a .25 move up is not a big prediction. It is trust me, becasue 24.73 is its 50 day moving average- and getting above that and staying there helps the stock to move higher again. Thats a technical move- and helps to know some of that when trading.
New pick.... has to be VMW- the hot IPO of this year- ran upto 82 last week- and is down today on good news. Thats when I pull the trigger sometimes -down on good news- so am buying some at 74. A market swoon will take this down to 68... so will buy just half my target position today. This is from my speculative cash. The one that grew nicely in TSL ... trade. Talkin of TSL the solar stock I would move onto the next one- STP- its more stable and less volatile and fundamentals look good from a solar perspective.
Unfortunately Greenspan speaks all day- in bits and parts and the interview on CNBC will be broadcast at 9 pm so the sulking in the market continues in the world markets .... tonite and then tomorrow morning maybe we discount everything and get ready for the Real Fed- Bernarnke to ACT!
To cut or not to cut... is not the question in my mind. 25 basis points on my crystal ball I find.
Relief at last as we find new opportunities tomorrow and beyond. No time to pause. ACT and be alert. Keep some cash for a big market crash- if it aint happening we buy anyway- but without cash we cant do much... So my cash from LEH and AMGN is on the side for pullin the trigger tomorrow....
Wonderful isnt it- as you understand the ease of trading... and relax all the way to the bank...
All I can say is what Berny says tomorrow will be more important and what he does will move the markets. The knee jerk reaction (as some would like to put it) will be a rally or a slump whatever the bears and bulls choose for it to be. But a relief rally is coming up this week is my prognosis. Once we wait so much for an event, such as the fed cut... when we get it we sigh a relief. THATS the relief rally.
Obviously if the Fed does not cut rates tomorrow- the markets will crash all over the world. AND if the underlying meaning of not cutting is that the economy is firing on strong cylinders... then one wonders why the markets would crash. TO the trader it will spell opportunity... again. Whats to lose?
SIRF took profits on friday at 20.5, believe it or not its below 19 again- its not a pull back - its profit taking. Whats the difference, if I sold at 20.5 I will buy at 19 with all my might. Thats what I did today.
MNST =33.4 and YHOO=24.7 are doing well. YHOO moves above 25 today is my humble intuitive prediction. I will hold on to both positions.
Whats the big deal - a .25 move up is not a big prediction. It is trust me, becasue 24.73 is its 50 day moving average- and getting above that and staying there helps the stock to move higher again. Thats a technical move- and helps to know some of that when trading.
New pick.... has to be VMW- the hot IPO of this year- ran upto 82 last week- and is down today on good news. Thats when I pull the trigger sometimes -down on good news- so am buying some at 74. A market swoon will take this down to 68... so will buy just half my target position today. This is from my speculative cash. The one that grew nicely in TSL ... trade. Talkin of TSL the solar stock I would move onto the next one- STP- its more stable and less volatile and fundamentals look good from a solar perspective.
Unfortunately Greenspan speaks all day- in bits and parts and the interview on CNBC will be broadcast at 9 pm so the sulking in the market continues in the world markets .... tonite and then tomorrow morning maybe we discount everything and get ready for the Real Fed- Bernarnke to ACT!
To cut or not to cut... is not the question in my mind. 25 basis points on my crystal ball I find.
Relief at last as we find new opportunities tomorrow and beyond. No time to pause. ACT and be alert. Keep some cash for a big market crash- if it aint happening we buy anyway- but without cash we cant do much... So my cash from LEH and AMGN is on the side for pullin the trigger tomorrow....
Wonderful isnt it- as you understand the ease of trading... and relax all the way to the bank...
Friday, September 14, 2007
LEH- Lehman brothers- a finance company...
Mona took a breather yesterday and watched the voilahooo on financials. LEH target of 60 met in just 2 days. While the analysts are scratching their heads we made money from 52 to 60.
Countdown begins to the FED meeting next week. 2 more trading days before its here. As the whole army of analysts and economists all over the world speculate about the rate cut and how much... in mona's world we watch the market and stock prices carefully and pull the trigger when its due. For instance we watched the voilahoo on financials already ahead of the meeting and ahead of the earnings next week. And my pick of LEH went up 8 bucks- not bad in 2 days. 52 to 60! Would I buy ahead of the earnings. No, being ahead of the market and in the money I sell and hold the cash. So being ahead - and not panicking - buying low helps to be in cash when we may need it. But for some reason maybe next week if the Fed and the earnings (financials) -cause a pullback- I would be ready to pull the trigger ...
Today I am buying BID. Just an instinct- SOTHEBYS is done going down. 42 is good for me. Its a play on the global economy still growing and the art market bubble not bursting yet. I hope some of my art lover friends are reading and adding some BID in their portfolios.
The market will be lackluster today. Retail numbers were okay today. Autos did very well... but we see red across the board. Must be the consumer sentiment... ha ha. The fears of housing and subprime causing a recession still loom. I do think the fears are overdone. Gear up for a rally though it may get weaker toward september end as earnings come into the picture.
For now am done trading. LEH and AMGN were good money makers- for the week. SIRF broke out. ITs the GPS device chip maker. We watched it touch 16 and turnaround. 20 today. Did not take long for the market to realize this ones got solid growth prospects. When they fear the competition I buy. In at 17 will sell half my position at 21 and then let the rest ride... high.
August was portfolio poisoning... September is digestion and healing. October will bring out the health in the market as year end and holiday season appears on the horizon. Its funny once you figure out everything money is easy on the market. And when its not doing okay, there is opportunity for it to get easy- just have to make those moves- in and out.
Listen and pay heed... to mona's crystal ball...scroll down the archive and theres nothing to fear in this market.
Tutorials coming up... stay tuned. And lets have a great weekend... all!
Countdown begins to the FED meeting next week. 2 more trading days before its here. As the whole army of analysts and economists all over the world speculate about the rate cut and how much... in mona's world we watch the market and stock prices carefully and pull the trigger when its due. For instance we watched the voilahoo on financials already ahead of the meeting and ahead of the earnings next week. And my pick of LEH went up 8 bucks- not bad in 2 days. 52 to 60! Would I buy ahead of the earnings. No, being ahead of the market and in the money I sell and hold the cash. So being ahead - and not panicking - buying low helps to be in cash when we may need it. But for some reason maybe next week if the Fed and the earnings (financials) -cause a pullback- I would be ready to pull the trigger ...
Today I am buying BID. Just an instinct- SOTHEBYS is done going down. 42 is good for me. Its a play on the global economy still growing and the art market bubble not bursting yet. I hope some of my art lover friends are reading and adding some BID in their portfolios.
The market will be lackluster today. Retail numbers were okay today. Autos did very well... but we see red across the board. Must be the consumer sentiment... ha ha. The fears of housing and subprime causing a recession still loom. I do think the fears are overdone. Gear up for a rally though it may get weaker toward september end as earnings come into the picture.
For now am done trading. LEH and AMGN were good money makers- for the week. SIRF broke out. ITs the GPS device chip maker. We watched it touch 16 and turnaround. 20 today. Did not take long for the market to realize this ones got solid growth prospects. When they fear the competition I buy. In at 17 will sell half my position at 21 and then let the rest ride... high.
August was portfolio poisoning... September is digestion and healing. October will bring out the health in the market as year end and holiday season appears on the horizon. Its funny once you figure out everything money is easy on the market. And when its not doing okay, there is opportunity for it to get easy- just have to make those moves- in and out.
Listen and pay heed... to mona's crystal ball...scroll down the archive and theres nothing to fear in this market.
Tutorials coming up... stay tuned. And lets have a great weekend... all!
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
AMGN...
Watch and be patient. Absorb the action in the market. Conserve your wisdom. Align yourself with the sentiment of the market. THE trend is your friend... I strongly believe that. Don't go against the market trend and watch for the changes in trend. Act fast. And be alert. Theres loads of money to made here at monasmadmarket-!
AMGN got the title status for a reason. Three cheers for AMGN- a defensive play I wrote in my blog at 50-51. Its rallied to almost 56 already... I put in my order to sell at 56.5. just half my position. Feel funny to sell my defensive play- all at once. I think I will hold on to the other half of my position till 60 and from there let others make money on this one. There was news on AMGN that the FDA is not going to put new restrictions on anemia drugs... wont go into the details. SO far the news is good and for a battered and hammered stock the reaction can only be a rally. I am happy.
I dont believe in getting too defensive - not when every one is so cautious. The market moves too fast and you end up buying at much higher levels if you dont place your BUY orders when the stocks are cheap.
For instance I liked ebay at 33. If I waited for the market to get rid of its woes like some what 2-3 weeks after the first crash, I would get EBAY at 36.7 today... Though my target price for it is 40 its tough for me to buy it at 37 when I thought it was good at 33. To be able to separate the wheat from the chaff... can help to make the money grow. EBAY had no connection with the sub prime woes... still it got hammered with the general market. SO I screamed in my blog to BUY.
Frankly when everyone (the herd) starts to believe in the rally I get cautious... Its still not happening. But one of these days there will be that triple digit rally and boom boom every stock is flying high... Thats when I will say SELL for now. And watch again.
The rally continues today I think to decent green across the board. NASDAQ should hit 2630 before it decides to go higher or lower from there. Its at 2603 now. And the S & P is 25 points away from the voilahoo level of 1500. DOW is relaxed at 13300... getting no real direction today.
I sold some TSL at 49 yesterday- not waiting for 50- which did not happen- got to 49.99 and then all the way down to 48... That was close. That was the third round of a 40-50 back and forth ride. I think seriously that the next range will be 50-60. But will wait until the market takes it above 50 to pull the trigger once more.
I bought some SIRI at 3.15. It is a good buy prior to the merger approval with XMSR. Low risk- the business is not going away and with or without approval- SIRI is cheap I would say.
I think SNDK at 53 and AKAM at 30 are ready to show some green.... from here- INFY the Indian ADR is still trading around 47...for a while- INDIA is off the radar - these days- thats when its time to pull the trigger- when its paused. Long term looks good for emerging markets- there is no turning back. TTM (TATA Motors) 16 was good at 17 it is a winner and still has scope to run.
DHI is my housing sector pick at 13.6 today... makin new lows but once the dust settles ... no one dares to say it but the BOTTOM is here ...for housing. I can afford to say it as I am no CRAMER and no one is really listening.
On the short side... I am being bold again. AMAZON much as I like the company and the numbers- did it not go too far too fast- so am buying puts on AMAZON... that is an option to sell at 85. ITs at 88 and a high risk as if it breaks out above its 52-week high of 89... then 100 is not far away... I think it makes a double top at 89 and comes rushing down... Shorting is dangerous but buying puts will limit the risk.
Win some, lose some but keep watching. Opportunity missed is history. Look for the next one. Moving on is the name of the game.
AMGN got the title status for a reason. Three cheers for AMGN- a defensive play I wrote in my blog at 50-51. Its rallied to almost 56 already... I put in my order to sell at 56.5. just half my position. Feel funny to sell my defensive play- all at once. I think I will hold on to the other half of my position till 60 and from there let others make money on this one. There was news on AMGN that the FDA is not going to put new restrictions on anemia drugs... wont go into the details. SO far the news is good and for a battered and hammered stock the reaction can only be a rally. I am happy.
I dont believe in getting too defensive - not when every one is so cautious. The market moves too fast and you end up buying at much higher levels if you dont place your BUY orders when the stocks are cheap.
For instance I liked ebay at 33. If I waited for the market to get rid of its woes like some what 2-3 weeks after the first crash, I would get EBAY at 36.7 today... Though my target price for it is 40 its tough for me to buy it at 37 when I thought it was good at 33. To be able to separate the wheat from the chaff... can help to make the money grow. EBAY had no connection with the sub prime woes... still it got hammered with the general market. SO I screamed in my blog to BUY.
Frankly when everyone (the herd) starts to believe in the rally I get cautious... Its still not happening. But one of these days there will be that triple digit rally and boom boom every stock is flying high... Thats when I will say SELL for now. And watch again.
The rally continues today I think to decent green across the board. NASDAQ should hit 2630 before it decides to go higher or lower from there. Its at 2603 now. And the S & P is 25 points away from the voilahoo level of 1500. DOW is relaxed at 13300... getting no real direction today.
I sold some TSL at 49 yesterday- not waiting for 50- which did not happen- got to 49.99 and then all the way down to 48... That was close. That was the third round of a 40-50 back and forth ride. I think seriously that the next range will be 50-60. But will wait until the market takes it above 50 to pull the trigger once more.
I bought some SIRI at 3.15. It is a good buy prior to the merger approval with XMSR. Low risk- the business is not going away and with or without approval- SIRI is cheap I would say.
I think SNDK at 53 and AKAM at 30 are ready to show some green.... from here- INFY the Indian ADR is still trading around 47...for a while- INDIA is off the radar - these days- thats when its time to pull the trigger- when its paused. Long term looks good for emerging markets- there is no turning back. TTM (TATA Motors) 16 was good at 17 it is a winner and still has scope to run.
DHI is my housing sector pick at 13.6 today... makin new lows but once the dust settles ... no one dares to say it but the BOTTOM is here ...for housing. I can afford to say it as I am no CRAMER and no one is really listening.
On the short side... I am being bold again. AMAZON much as I like the company and the numbers- did it not go too far too fast- so am buying puts on AMAZON... that is an option to sell at 85. ITs at 88 and a high risk as if it breaks out above its 52-week high of 89... then 100 is not far away... I think it makes a double top at 89 and comes rushing down... Shorting is dangerous but buying puts will limit the risk.
Win some, lose some but keep watching. Opportunity missed is history. Look for the next one. Moving on is the name of the game.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
