This is becoming easy. DOW 14000 this morning welcoming the new quarter just as I mentioned on Friday. Bet it wont stay above 14000. So I am a seller to sleep easy as the earnings season begins. Could not have timed it better.
Indian ADRs voilavoilahoo ya... IBN at a 52 week high- some were skeptical about this pick- an Indian ICICI bank that was going cheap under 25 last year... is too high at 38... but turned out one of my best safe and sound picks- selling at 53.5 today. Would not have found this opportunity but for the mortgage mess that led the market to crushed levels in august when I started my blog. The other Indian ADR I was bragging about= TATA motors at 15. Its trading at 19.5 - not bad. AM selling for now. And will watch closely. INFY, the infotech leader from INDIA, INFOSY tech= nearing 50 today. Too much resistance at this level coupled with the fear of the currency depression in earnings as the rupee is stronger... has slowed this one. In at 44 and am going to sell half my position at 50. Will watch and probably get 53 if shorts start covering ... and if not, I may buy again this month at 47 if it affords the opportunity again.
If the market dips as it reaches frothy levels- too far too fast, may make some money by buying puts. That is options to sell a stock. Am buying puts on FSLR= First Solar... It broke out to a new high of 125. The P/E over a 100 is a bit unjustified. It can dive 20 bucks in a day if it does not perform on earnings date. For that day... a few November 100 puts seem a good enough risk at #3.30 a piece. Maximum I lose is $3.30 per option. With all the money we made this month- whats a $3000 loss. So we buy 10 puts. And watch very closely. NILE is the other one I would like to short. Its the online diamond retailer. Richly valued and momentum driven, with a forward P.E of above 75 am wondering if in shaky slowdown times, the growth can be sustained. Am watching and buying the November 85 puts for $3.5 a piece.
Still have cash on hand... no new long picks. AM happy with my holdings for now CSCO, BRCM, GLW, OVTI, SIRF, YHOO and beaten down DHI and ETFC.
And am certainly happy I was not greedy with lofty GRMN and got out at 120 +. The stock is down 13 to 106 today- wonderful. Thought I would wait for a pull back to 110 or so to buy this one back. But its down not on profit taking, but on news so I will watch till the dust settles. Maybe one more down drift to under 100 is not ruled out. The news is- NOK buying NAVTEQ- the GPS software company. NOK growing stronger in GPS navigation on its phones... spells competition for GRMN. The fear is a bit realistic when I think GRMN provides a stand alone GPS vs. NOK and the like incorporating the navigation into the phones- if that catches on...may spell trouble for GRMN... somewhere down the line. For now am watching. If the momentum is driven out I would just move onto a better stock. This exemplifies my mantra of not being married to any stock. Got to drop it like a hot potato if the market starts losing its love for it.
Yes. Thats the game. Stay tuned... this week is emplyment numbers week so expecting back and forth below and above 14000 on the dow... easy.
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