Needless to say we have had a MAD market and unbelievable volatility. VIX that scared us when it was in its high 30s hovers in the 60s and actually hit an all time high of 75+ in the notorious week when the markets CRASHED last week.
500 point moves are every day attempts to confuse the players. I would say this- today dow down to 8750 looks like a buying on a dip theory. My picks are QLD (ETF for Technology) and UYM (ETF for Materials) - trading at 33 and 22 respectively. These will jump furiously when the economy starts to settle down and confidence starts trickling in...
Commodity stocks and energy have been CRUSHED and ANNIHILATED due to hedge fund selling. If the world does not come to an end, I am a buyer of some of these stocks - FCX at 34 and NUE under 30 and maybe a natural gas stock- like CHK at 16 seem cheap.
Cash is king in times such as these to take the chance to get into good solid companies with great franchises that have great balance sheets - every thing got cheaper but the survivors will make money for themselves and for you. Companies like NIKE or COKE to name two.
The dry good sector got wiped out assuming that no goods will ever move again. Remember DRYS that we traded between 50 and 120. DRYS got as low as 16 last week- trading at unheard of P/E ratios of 2 and 3 etc. Its at 20 today- wow. Nibbling for the long term may not be a bad idea. Home builders are down but not at new lows which is encouraging- maybe TOLL at 18.50 will give a good return if held for a few months- as the housing sector emerges finally after all the bailout help that comes along the way.
As the markets digest the 2500 drop in a matter of days and 1500 point recovery very quickly- for those who have cash this is a good market to buy only when there is a 500 point drop and sell when the triple digit rallies comee by- inevitably so.
Confusion becomes a weapon of stock destruction and I hope that we can find catalysts for confidence. There is no better panacea than CONFIDENCE and SENTIMENT - The media needs to bring the die-hard-OPTIMISTS on board with megaphones.... unless they all died with the catastrophe that unfolded on wall street last week.
I remain the watcher - the elephant- trading less but hoping that the world realizes that we have to wrap up our mistakes and not make any more- to open our eyes and to give each other hope that all is not dead.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Monday, October 6, 2008
BOTTOM ! MADNESS !
Putting the financial tsunami in perspective takes courage. Wall street is having a tough time figuring it out. THERE IS NO CREDIT. Commercial paper is dead? Global panacea is required at this time. AND most of all a CONFIDENCE STIMULUS if you may. Get the media to focus on analysts to come out and say IT WILL END... instead of focussing on Lehman Brothers' CEO and how unfair it was for him to have received MILLIONs for the failure eventually of LEHMAN.
I could go on about this market losing its value to not just recession fears or even depression fears but lack of confidence that things will ever emerge better. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. All indicators have been thrown out of the windows... THE FEARFUL VIXX -measure of panic is at all time highs... or so... TECHNICALS say we are way OVERSOLD. And rational thought may indicate that we are in the worst of turmoils in the financial world- what could be worse than credit is frozen- business are frozen.
The bailout packet took to long to pass- TAKE THAT say the stocks worldwide. But it did pass. So CALM DOWN I say. Looks like we wont take off- and buy stocks until there is a CO-ORDINATED move globally to CUT rates. ECB first- they are too slow, arent they? What are they thinkin with rates above 4% still. INFLATION? Dont they see OIL is not at $140 anymore and no one is predicting OIL to go to $200 anymore. I hear predictions of OIL going to $50... or in that direction, if you will. Commodity prices have been slashed -takes pressure offf inflation, one would think and release the pressure - REDUCE them rates all countries and the global effort will percolate into confidence-! Thats what markets know is good... for liquidity, for housing, for credit... low rates are good... everyone knows that. BAILOUT bills being good or not- thats uncertain -as its a FIRST... for this market to digest.
Get the jist... there's always more to be done. I suspect that markets BOTTOM- that is it- Short term bottom, mid term bottom, long term bottom... some time this week. Maybe we have turnaround TUESDAY... and all those who are waiting to GET IN... believe me theres lots of private money... and wealth ... lots in money markets... lots UNDER those mattresses... making pretty much nothing... All of that trickles into these undervalued markets- when viewed from the LONGER point view. TOUCHE.
Not many as optimistic as mona... what do I care... I started this blog- when all hell broke lose- last august- and my point is confidence is moot- then all follows. People, dont lose it... when theres not much more to be lost, theres lots to be made.
Give me a line of feedback so I know I am not alone out here....
I could go on about this market losing its value to not just recession fears or even depression fears but lack of confidence that things will ever emerge better. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. All indicators have been thrown out of the windows... THE FEARFUL VIXX -measure of panic is at all time highs... or so... TECHNICALS say we are way OVERSOLD. And rational thought may indicate that we are in the worst of turmoils in the financial world- what could be worse than credit is frozen- business are frozen.
The bailout packet took to long to pass- TAKE THAT say the stocks worldwide. But it did pass. So CALM DOWN I say. Looks like we wont take off- and buy stocks until there is a CO-ORDINATED move globally to CUT rates. ECB first- they are too slow, arent they? What are they thinkin with rates above 4% still. INFLATION? Dont they see OIL is not at $140 anymore and no one is predicting OIL to go to $200 anymore. I hear predictions of OIL going to $50... or in that direction, if you will. Commodity prices have been slashed -takes pressure offf inflation, one would think and release the pressure - REDUCE them rates all countries and the global effort will percolate into confidence-! Thats what markets know is good... for liquidity, for housing, for credit... low rates are good... everyone knows that. BAILOUT bills being good or not- thats uncertain -as its a FIRST... for this market to digest.
Get the jist... there's always more to be done. I suspect that markets BOTTOM- that is it- Short term bottom, mid term bottom, long term bottom... some time this week. Maybe we have turnaround TUESDAY... and all those who are waiting to GET IN... believe me theres lots of private money... and wealth ... lots in money markets... lots UNDER those mattresses... making pretty much nothing... All of that trickles into these undervalued markets- when viewed from the LONGER point view. TOUCHE.
Not many as optimistic as mona... what do I care... I started this blog- when all hell broke lose- last august- and my point is confidence is moot- then all follows. People, dont lose it... when theres not much more to be lost, theres lots to be made.
Give me a line of feedback so I know I am not alone out here....
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
AIG WILL NOT BE ANNIHILATED
There is too much PAIN and PANIC on wall street this week. No surprise with a mammoth failure of LEHMAN BROTHERS and AIG in an emergency vehicle heading for a lifeline- will it get it? To my mind `they' whoever they may be- FED, PRIVATE wealth owners, Sovereign FUNDs, have to, have to HELP a solvent company to remain solvent- ! The rating agencies have to, have to, have to give AIG time to sell its assets ($trillion... worth) there always is a buyer eventually- and to raise money.
The only trade I can think of is AIG at $1.5 trading at bankrupt levels- because you got to have some conviction and confidence that SANITY will prevail. The reverberations of an AIG bankruptcy all over the globe will be DEVASTATING. Mona awaits an AIG survival and the consequent reversal in the markets moves. We also await FED meeting today- and a half basis point cut ... to calm the fear and panic if not anything else.
If the crash has come in so hard- 500 pts in the DOW last afternoon and VIX shooting upto 34-35... highest level in years... we could call it CAPITULATION and one of these days STAMPEDE buying should ensue.
IF there is money on the sidelines its the smartest money and should be put to work NOW ... !
DRYS at 47, EXM at 20.5,... are trading at forward p-e of 3 or 4 I believe- assuming that global trade will STOP. Once China settles down- and starts moving goods again.... shipping rates (baltic) will pick up- and these stocks will SOAR. I also like commodities- they are failing alongwith the huge unwinding in hedge fund p'folios, I guess. FCX at 60 is VALUE, some others could be RIO at 20.5, and ALCOA. FWLT at 36 and WFR at 30 are beaten down but will reward once the market starts moving up ... when it does. COAL and Natural gas stocks are mutilated- ha, havent seen so much opportunity ... wish I had more money to put to work. DO YOU?
The only trade I can think of is AIG at $1.5 trading at bankrupt levels- because you got to have some conviction and confidence that SANITY will prevail. The reverberations of an AIG bankruptcy all over the globe will be DEVASTATING. Mona awaits an AIG survival and the consequent reversal in the markets moves. We also await FED meeting today- and a half basis point cut ... to calm the fear and panic if not anything else.
If the crash has come in so hard- 500 pts in the DOW last afternoon and VIX shooting upto 34-35... highest level in years... we could call it CAPITULATION and one of these days STAMPEDE buying should ensue.
IF there is money on the sidelines its the smartest money and should be put to work NOW ... !
DRYS at 47, EXM at 20.5,... are trading at forward p-e of 3 or 4 I believe- assuming that global trade will STOP. Once China settles down- and starts moving goods again.... shipping rates (baltic) will pick up- and these stocks will SOAR. I also like commodities- they are failing alongwith the huge unwinding in hedge fund p'folios, I guess. FCX at 60 is VALUE, some others could be RIO at 20.5, and ALCOA. FWLT at 36 and WFR at 30 are beaten down but will reward once the market starts moving up ... when it does. COAL and Natural gas stocks are mutilated- ha, havent seen so much opportunity ... wish I had more money to put to work. DO YOU?
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
GUSTAV -DOWNGRADED... Wall Street UPGRADED
Hi bulls and bears... hey do I get the feeling that I am the only one standing at this blogpost? Its been a couple of months of malaise in more ways than one but I am back to share my views.
Thats all that matters... I read a nice title the other day `STOP WHINING AND START LIVING'. Thats a good way to capture my suggestion for wall street viewers and traders and sufferers.
Its been a year since I started this blog- and pretty much the same time since the bear market began. Only difference then was we did not know we were in one but now the statisticians confirm that we are in one- what, the BEAR's clutches. BUT NOT FOR LONG...says monasmadmarket. So pay heed.
If you did not panic and sell over a longer term nothing is lost. If you had money to add to positions you may still emerge a winner. But the ones who made the most moolah are the traders who enjoyed mind blowing opportunities because they watched the market like a hawk. Well, as most of us have a life other than that we are likely to miss the timing, one would think. But it aint hard if one has patience to wait to buy low and to wait and sell high.
In my opinion the market did BOTTOM with the DOW in the sub-11000 area in July. And the bottom was retested too. There is no reason why it will not retest that level -technically they say it takes one more test when all and sundry declare we have seen the bottom.
The encouraging downfall in the price of OIL to my mind is significant. There was no doubt in my mind that oil would touch 100 before it ventured toward 200. I screamed SELL when it was close to 145 as it went up too fast and furiously without fundamental support. Either the slowdown in the world economies was not true or the oil price was not true. Turned out that oil prices had to correct, in fact, crash as the pace of rally was too FAST.
Today I guess- with the GUSTAV disappointment (sigh of relief I should say ) oil should crash and gracefully meet the 100 mark.
Whats the trade? I was waiting for oil to come down to the 90s at which time I had resolved to buy some solar names- ! Somehow solar has survived this plunge in oil prices unlike other times, and that bodes well for committing some trades to solar names. Alternative energy is a reality- unlike a decade ago when there was just talk about some such stuff as solar power. All names in solar -SPWR, STP, LDK have reported stellar numbers and growth in the next couple of years seems to be projected at great rates. SPWR may go to 140 again... once momentum picks up- its at 90- but its a bit pricey for my trading book. STP has already seen a runup from 32 to 48- in the last month. That leaves TSL -tradin at 31, still closer to the bottom... than to the top... so lets buy TSL at 31- today with an oil depression we may get it cheaper... and then we can hold on until oil settles down and reverses. YGE is my chinese play again- the trading range has been so wonderful. Got out of it in May at 28. Its 18 today- a runup to 28 again is easy. THOUGH I believe oil will trade down to the 90s, I dont believe it will stay there for long. Once it reverses, there will be a lot of short covering... as fears of oil going to 150 build up again. So at the bottom range of its trade- I would not mind an oil play- I am aiming for PBR (50s), HK (31) and a refiner -VLO (34).
Maybe some commodity plays will get crushed again- RIO (Brazil) is at its bottom around 25 -may get it cheaper today- steel demand will strengthen as worries of recessions settle down.
I am waiting for gold to come down to 750 again- AUY under 10 if I can get some.
Technology has seen some murderous action- NVDA- gosh I got that wrong. Down from mid 20s to 12.... I am a buyer right here... forget the slowdown and the estimates... 12 is too cheap for the graphics chipmaker... and its doing a BUYBACK... itself that spells conviction. Safe play in technology is GLW. Volatile play in technology can be GRMN-have to check where its trading at. If in a bull market it traded upto 120, a bear market can take it down to 30. Well it really did go into its 30s... thats how BAD its out there for LONGs. I still use my NUVI and it `recalculates' every time I make the wrong turn....on the road. Recalculating the stock prices.... of GRMN and where its going ... may not be a bad idea.
Take profits if the DOW bounces back to 12500 or so- but while it heads there enjoy the ride and make some money. Will talk of financials next time. Will need a million bytes to talk about them at length. Sufficeth to say- buying the UYG- the ULTRA exchange traded fund for finance at 21.25- with a target price of 25 some time next month. Its going to make higher highs... and lower lows... if you know what I mean.
Got to go... summing up this blog. BUY RIO(25), YGE (18),TSL (31.5), NVDA (12.75), GLW (20.5), UYG (21) and I may add some retail JWN (30) COH (29) !
Dont know where the bull or bear are but the elephant is back on wall street, thats me watching and heeding... and ready to pull the trigger... and to blog my alerts... so pay heed and be in touch. Stay in the game... however bleak it may be... it always turns around. In and out is the only way to survive.
Ahead of the post-labor day opening bell - heres 4 cheers for a triple digit move in the DOW... if momentum picks up and BULLS and BEARS rage to buy for now. The ISM data will only add to the bullishness as long as its around 50- crystal ball says it will be above 50... No ones reading anyway... so let it be written... HurricaneaHoooo... hoooo... to yohooo
Thats all that matters... I read a nice title the other day `STOP WHINING AND START LIVING'. Thats a good way to capture my suggestion for wall street viewers and traders and sufferers.
Its been a year since I started this blog- and pretty much the same time since the bear market began. Only difference then was we did not know we were in one but now the statisticians confirm that we are in one- what, the BEAR's clutches. BUT NOT FOR LONG...says monasmadmarket. So pay heed.
If you did not panic and sell over a longer term nothing is lost. If you had money to add to positions you may still emerge a winner. But the ones who made the most moolah are the traders who enjoyed mind blowing opportunities because they watched the market like a hawk. Well, as most of us have a life other than that we are likely to miss the timing, one would think. But it aint hard if one has patience to wait to buy low and to wait and sell high.
In my opinion the market did BOTTOM with the DOW in the sub-11000 area in July. And the bottom was retested too. There is no reason why it will not retest that level -technically they say it takes one more test when all and sundry declare we have seen the bottom.
The encouraging downfall in the price of OIL to my mind is significant. There was no doubt in my mind that oil would touch 100 before it ventured toward 200. I screamed SELL when it was close to 145 as it went up too fast and furiously without fundamental support. Either the slowdown in the world economies was not true or the oil price was not true. Turned out that oil prices had to correct, in fact, crash as the pace of rally was too FAST.
Today I guess- with the GUSTAV disappointment (sigh of relief I should say ) oil should crash and gracefully meet the 100 mark.
Whats the trade? I was waiting for oil to come down to the 90s at which time I had resolved to buy some solar names- ! Somehow solar has survived this plunge in oil prices unlike other times, and that bodes well for committing some trades to solar names. Alternative energy is a reality- unlike a decade ago when there was just talk about some such stuff as solar power. All names in solar -SPWR, STP, LDK have reported stellar numbers and growth in the next couple of years seems to be projected at great rates. SPWR may go to 140 again... once momentum picks up- its at 90- but its a bit pricey for my trading book. STP has already seen a runup from 32 to 48- in the last month. That leaves TSL -tradin at 31, still closer to the bottom... than to the top... so lets buy TSL at 31- today with an oil depression we may get it cheaper... and then we can hold on until oil settles down and reverses. YGE is my chinese play again- the trading range has been so wonderful. Got out of it in May at 28. Its 18 today- a runup to 28 again is easy. THOUGH I believe oil will trade down to the 90s, I dont believe it will stay there for long. Once it reverses, there will be a lot of short covering... as fears of oil going to 150 build up again. So at the bottom range of its trade- I would not mind an oil play- I am aiming for PBR (50s), HK (31) and a refiner -VLO (34).
Maybe some commodity plays will get crushed again- RIO (Brazil) is at its bottom around 25 -may get it cheaper today- steel demand will strengthen as worries of recessions settle down.
I am waiting for gold to come down to 750 again- AUY under 10 if I can get some.
Technology has seen some murderous action- NVDA- gosh I got that wrong. Down from mid 20s to 12.... I am a buyer right here... forget the slowdown and the estimates... 12 is too cheap for the graphics chipmaker... and its doing a BUYBACK... itself that spells conviction. Safe play in technology is GLW. Volatile play in technology can be GRMN-have to check where its trading at. If in a bull market it traded upto 120, a bear market can take it down to 30. Well it really did go into its 30s... thats how BAD its out there for LONGs. I still use my NUVI and it `recalculates' every time I make the wrong turn....on the road. Recalculating the stock prices.... of GRMN and where its going ... may not be a bad idea.
Take profits if the DOW bounces back to 12500 or so- but while it heads there enjoy the ride and make some money. Will talk of financials next time. Will need a million bytes to talk about them at length. Sufficeth to say- buying the UYG- the ULTRA exchange traded fund for finance at 21.25- with a target price of 25 some time next month. Its going to make higher highs... and lower lows... if you know what I mean.
Got to go... summing up this blog. BUY RIO(25), YGE (18),TSL (31.5), NVDA (12.75), GLW (20.5), UYG (21) and I may add some retail JWN (30) COH (29) !
Dont know where the bull or bear are but the elephant is back on wall street, thats me watching and heeding... and ready to pull the trigger... and to blog my alerts... so pay heed and be in touch. Stay in the game... however bleak it may be... it always turns around. In and out is the only way to survive.
Ahead of the post-labor day opening bell - heres 4 cheers for a triple digit move in the DOW... if momentum picks up and BULLS and BEARS rage to buy for now. The ISM data will only add to the bullishness as long as its around 50- crystal ball says it will be above 50... No ones reading anyway... so let it be written... HurricaneaHoooo... hoooo... to yohooo
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
SELL-OFF too soon...
Sell sell sell was yesterday's game. Today looks like we could nibble on some stocks for a quick buck.
Financials have given up most of their gains. Citi bottomed at 18 earlier this year. Ran upto 27... and now is trading at 22.50 or so- technically this looks like a good trade right here. 22.30 right now and I am a buyer for a quick trade when financials rally again- soon.
Technology is getting crushed with SNDK's gloomy outlook- recession is priced in, consumer is dead etc. BRCM that we sold yesterday at 29 is 26 today- unbelievable moves. At 26 looks good to add some. And some more if it falls more after HP's earnings come out this evening. The longer term trend methinks will be up though it may be slow and steady. When the market does hiccup as its doing very nicely today buying is a good idea. Am also adding NVDA- graphics chip maker- down from 25 to 23 in two days. And EMC looks good at 17.35 today.
Solarfun did not disappoint and is holding onto its stellar run from 18 to 25... once the market settles down- solar names will rally again. Am not buying new names here but will look for a rally to sell those that I own. Lookin for YGE 28 and STP 50 to sell them and wrap up my solar play until oil prices decide to come down- that will inevitably happen- as theres too much speculation in that price- is my opinion.
ABX (gold) was very timely as we got in yesterday at 40. ITs up today to 42 and change... my target price is 45.
Late day rally may or may not happen- but am positive that the market will rebound this week as profit taking ceases and bargain hunting begins.
Hang in there... opportunities to buy and sell keep comin our way and being on the right side of the trade is the mantra.
Financials have given up most of their gains. Citi bottomed at 18 earlier this year. Ran upto 27... and now is trading at 22.50 or so- technically this looks like a good trade right here. 22.30 right now and I am a buyer for a quick trade when financials rally again- soon.
Technology is getting crushed with SNDK's gloomy outlook- recession is priced in, consumer is dead etc. BRCM that we sold yesterday at 29 is 26 today- unbelievable moves. At 26 looks good to add some. And some more if it falls more after HP's earnings come out this evening. The longer term trend methinks will be up though it may be slow and steady. When the market does hiccup as its doing very nicely today buying is a good idea. Am also adding NVDA- graphics chip maker- down from 25 to 23 in two days. And EMC looks good at 17.35 today.
Solarfun did not disappoint and is holding onto its stellar run from 18 to 25... once the market settles down- solar names will rally again. Am not buying new names here but will look for a rally to sell those that I own. Lookin for YGE 28 and STP 50 to sell them and wrap up my solar play until oil prices decide to come down- that will inevitably happen- as theres too much speculation in that price- is my opinion.
ABX (gold) was very timely as we got in yesterday at 40. ITs up today to 42 and change... my target price is 45.
Late day rally may or may not happen- but am positive that the market will rebound this week as profit taking ceases and bargain hunting begins.
Hang in there... opportunities to buy and sell keep comin our way and being on the right side of the trade is the mantra.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
BEEN a LONG WAIT...DOW 13000... S&P 1425...
Well... I am back. And yalahooo to everybody. - Dow 13000 and S&P 1425... and I hear the bull panting and tired... but I also perceive that the bear has sort of given up the chase... and is busy covering its hide...
So its hello again from mona - who has been away from the blog but not away from the markets mad movements. Before we get tricked into thinking this time its for real... and adapt a buy and hold policy.... I would shout `beware'...! In tune with our trading strategy... its sell on the rips and this week after a brief breakout there will be dips to follow and take advantage of. So if you have been a buyer of stocks... lighten up before your target prices show up... ! As the DOW reaches 13200... and the S&P 1450... I whisper SELL SELL SELL! And then wait and watch for panic and blood on the street again- it is inevitable- as a subprime credit crisis as HUGE as the one U.S. witnessed will not die overnight... there will be more write downs and bankruptcies.... and every time there will be a sell -off - ... but the only difference is the money on the sidelines has started working and so we can expect rallies to follow the sell offs. To buy on the sell off and sell on the rally will make your money more money- than holding on can.
So its hello again from mona - who has been away from the blog but not away from the markets mad movements. Before we get tricked into thinking this time its for real... and adapt a buy and hold policy.... I would shout `beware'...! In tune with our trading strategy... its sell on the rips and this week after a brief breakout there will be dips to follow and take advantage of. So if you have been a buyer of stocks... lighten up before your target prices show up... ! As the DOW reaches 13200... and the S&P 1450... I whisper SELL SELL SELL! And then wait and watch for panic and blood on the street again- it is inevitable- as a subprime credit crisis as HUGE as the one U.S. witnessed will not die overnight... there will be more write downs and bankruptcies.... and every time there will be a sell -off - ... but the only difference is the money on the sidelines has started working and so we can expect rallies to follow the sell offs. To buy on the sell off and sell on the rally will make your money more money- than holding on can.
About my precious picks- the last blog I notice mentioned buying DRYS at 59! That was the one stock worth holding on till today at least if not for longer. Earnings were out this evening and they handily beat estimates. ITs trading at 108 after hours after briefly touching 116 during the day. I am a seller tonite or tomorrow. Anything above 100 is a great move by all means -a double in less than 2 months. Thank you.
Other picks- today was a good day to sell some of the technology names- BRCM and INTC have had good runs. SNDK warned and so that will ruin the mood though most stocks look like good holds... a better day may give better prices. Raising cash is a good idea at this juncture.
While I was away I picked a few outtacountry stocks- CX (Brazil- construction story though it has global exposure)at 28 and NOK (no need to introduce this one) also at 28- its been badly beaten for no real reason cept that the competition is making too much noise on wall street- namely- RIMM and AAPL etc. I also liked TRN at 30 and SGR at 50 and bought them a few weeks ago. TRN is a railroad play- with paws in the `wind' energy sector. Am holding on for some more weeks- as these have broken out. TRN is at 37 and change and SGR will sell in the mid 60s if it reaches out some time this week.
Last but not the least the solar names have made us some mad money. YGE bottomed at 15 and and STP at 28 and SPWR at 55 -these were great picks as they bottomed... though thats the toughest time to buy em.
I am looking back at my blog and am reinforcing the theory that fear is the last thing that works in this volatile market. If we keep the emotions and the `what-if' doomsday predictions out and watch and wait patiently for the panic days we can accumulate great bargains in the market and then hold on for great gains.
Buyer beware but the worst seems to be over.
Picks today- I am lookin at some stocks that seem to have hit the bottom but have not really rallied- those are safer bets than the ones that have already made their moves. BID (Sothebys) at 27 looks like a steal- ready to rally- the bull on this one seems to be just getting its right foot a-tither... watch out... he sees red. My target price is 35.
And a gold stock won't harm while gold is still at 900... so I am picking ABX at 40.
Lastly can not let OIL get away without a word. I thought it would peak around 115- and speculation would take it upto 120 or so- was wrong. But I am a buyer of an ultrashort ETF called DUG- at 26.5 today... has fallen from heights of 58- well its been trading around mid 30s when oil was at 100. So am thinkin if oil does roll over before it ascends again this will give us a good trade. Target selling price will be when oil comes down to 110- wherever DUG trades at that time- say, 33 or so. If oil does not roll over we have to hedge our bet. So am buying some CHK (a natural gas play with the $OLID backing of the CEO who has purchased millions of shares in the last year)- will buy around 56 if I get them. Solar stocks are also a hedge against the ultra short oil play.
Meanwhile am waiting for SOLARFUN earnings tonite that decides the fate of the solar sentiment for this week. Its run up from 17 to 25 already- and looks like ready to run up to 30 if all goes well. Am not into this one but it may help nudge my solar stocks- YGE and STP ahead. Am in at 19 and 38... and holding onto solid gains bravely but will sell soon.
Welcome back to monasmadmarket where we watch, we wait and then we win and we keep fear and greed outta here. So friends, sell the winners- as some one dear to me suggested- sell half the position at least so that you dont lose it all when the prices start stumbling...
Yalahoo... SOLAhoo...till tomorrow...
Friday, March 14, 2008
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST....
Hiya everyone who missed reading my blog. I am back after a long sojourn -did the virus get me or was it the bear:?
It is indeed dangerous to kid yourself that being long this market is without worry- or consequence. Financials will eventually settle down as all the losses are taken and all the bad ones bailed out. But who's to tell which are the good ones? Bear Stearns is the latest one in disaster zone- calling for funds from JP Morgan and the Fed is bravely going to help them. A crisis more deeper than this where the Fed has to be in front of every victim... I cannot fathom.
Everyone's a victim if he is long this market. The jaws of the bear are too wide for comfort but its still a traders market if you have capital to play with. Instead of wondering who will succumb next or who will save the day- watching the price action in stocks that are `decoupled' say an international stock or one less exposed to finance.... can help to stay in the game.
Being all cash in such a market which can recover in a second any day- is also foolish- so in that case keeping a long term horizon makes sense.
I am lookin at technology for long term- like CSCO, EMC, INTC, NVDA. And refiners -VLO and TSO -at 52 week lows- as they are suffering with the hike in oil prices- once oil settles down to peaking out somewhere in the $110-115.... (we hope) refiners will come back. VLO we bought at 49 and sold at 60 in the last run. It did go upto 63- at which time I did not think it would revisit 49 again. Well, we could do it again. Its at 48.50 -and I am a buyer today.
AM also going with LOWES at 20.75- and INFY at 34 and ICICI bank- IBN at 40. Downside looks like LOW 20, INFY 32, IBN 36! Got to buy on dips and sell on rallies- thats the only way to go. The market is not far from the bottom- I thought it bottomed last week. Maybe it does next week- but the ones on the sidelines will come in- once the fear is out. Patience is a virtue though it sucks sometimes!
Cheers. Lets vote for a DOW down double digits - after a horrendous start- of down 300 points. Its still down 270 at 3pm and I am brave to ask for so much- but it has happened before.
Last but not the least- remember the dry goods sector- where we caught DRYS at 50 before anyone else. It went as high as 88 - before the market stumbled again. And its down to 60- second chances like these are great opportunities and dont come often. Got some DRYS at 59 today. Good luck... all. And welcome back to monas blog and remember panic selling never made anyone any money- because getting back in is tricky to say the least. When you sell at lows- and the market starts to recover you may buy back at higher prices and then not sell and go down once more- its a nasty cycle- so its better to hang in there in troubled times and wait for your prices.
It is indeed dangerous to kid yourself that being long this market is without worry- or consequence. Financials will eventually settle down as all the losses are taken and all the bad ones bailed out. But who's to tell which are the good ones? Bear Stearns is the latest one in disaster zone- calling for funds from JP Morgan and the Fed is bravely going to help them. A crisis more deeper than this where the Fed has to be in front of every victim... I cannot fathom.
Everyone's a victim if he is long this market. The jaws of the bear are too wide for comfort but its still a traders market if you have capital to play with. Instead of wondering who will succumb next or who will save the day- watching the price action in stocks that are `decoupled' say an international stock or one less exposed to finance.... can help to stay in the game.
Being all cash in such a market which can recover in a second any day- is also foolish- so in that case keeping a long term horizon makes sense.
I am lookin at technology for long term- like CSCO, EMC, INTC, NVDA. And refiners -VLO and TSO -at 52 week lows- as they are suffering with the hike in oil prices- once oil settles down to peaking out somewhere in the $110-115.... (we hope) refiners will come back. VLO we bought at 49 and sold at 60 in the last run. It did go upto 63- at which time I did not think it would revisit 49 again. Well, we could do it again. Its at 48.50 -and I am a buyer today.
AM also going with LOWES at 20.75- and INFY at 34 and ICICI bank- IBN at 40. Downside looks like LOW 20, INFY 32, IBN 36! Got to buy on dips and sell on rallies- thats the only way to go. The market is not far from the bottom- I thought it bottomed last week. Maybe it does next week- but the ones on the sidelines will come in- once the fear is out. Patience is a virtue though it sucks sometimes!
Cheers. Lets vote for a DOW down double digits - after a horrendous start- of down 300 points. Its still down 270 at 3pm and I am brave to ask for so much- but it has happened before.
Last but not the least- remember the dry goods sector- where we caught DRYS at 50 before anyone else. It went as high as 88 - before the market stumbled again. And its down to 60- second chances like these are great opportunities and dont come often. Got some DRYS at 59 today. Good luck... all. And welcome back to monas blog and remember panic selling never made anyone any money- because getting back in is tricky to say the least. When you sell at lows- and the market starts to recover you may buy back at higher prices and then not sell and go down once more- its a nasty cycle- so its better to hang in there in troubled times and wait for your prices.
Friday, February 8, 2008
NO NEWS- yet stocks are down...
This week as I said was a downer- the rally from the lows occured too fast- people including us at monas blog- took profits. AKAM from 26 to 33- sold them today- though I think holding on will be profitable, the markets do give us a chance to buy lower. CTSH in at 26- sold at 32 this morning- up 4 bucks on good earnings- which stock is up after earnings? Had to sell even though this one looks good long term. VMW from 54 to 61- am going to hold on as this one was badly beaten down- and is still wobbling trying to find a foothold- somewhere around 65-68 we may sell them. We got a chance to buy VLO again around 55 and change yesterday- was a windfall buy- as its already close to 59. Will easily trade upto low 60s next week. I also like MRO- marathon oil. VLO and MRO are refiners. They are down alongwith the market and also as crude oil is up a lot in the last couple of months that does not bode too well for refiners as their raw material cost -crude oil eats into margins. To my mind oil stabilizes here or may even fall a bit amid recession fears- and these are two low p/e stocks badly beaten down -worth buyin for a trade. For longer term as well- biggest bottleneck in the oil industry being refining capacity- these companies will do well until more capacity comes by.
Citigroup- I was waiting for a pullback to 26- that happened today- am buying at 25.75- for a trade upto 29 - once the financial messes settle down once again. Today financials are down again on fears of no bailout plan for bond insurers. Once we get clarity on that front- financials go up again. Tis great to catch these swing trades if you are on the right side of them.
Homebuilders are down too- its profit taking- as they had a huge runup in january. I am buying DHI at 13.75- ITs run up from 11 to 17 and change- is down to 13.75 today- will get a trade out of that one.
EMC has no reason to be trading at 15 and change- this one got pulled down with the VMW earnings- ! VMW recovered from 55 to 61- but emc is trading even lower from 16 where it was on the day VMW reported earnings. EMC itself reported good numbers- and looks like its bottoming out at 15. We are in at 15.20!
Those are a lot of trades from mona's market- am lookin for a recovery in the markets next week- if not before close this evening. Dont fret the volatility- take heed and play the game. :)
Citigroup- I was waiting for a pullback to 26- that happened today- am buying at 25.75- for a trade upto 29 - once the financial messes settle down once again. Today financials are down again on fears of no bailout plan for bond insurers. Once we get clarity on that front- financials go up again. Tis great to catch these swing trades if you are on the right side of them.
Homebuilders are down too- its profit taking- as they had a huge runup in january. I am buying DHI at 13.75- ITs run up from 11 to 17 and change- is down to 13.75 today- will get a trade out of that one.
EMC has no reason to be trading at 15 and change- this one got pulled down with the VMW earnings- ! VMW recovered from 55 to 61- but emc is trading even lower from 16 where it was on the day VMW reported earnings. EMC itself reported good numbers- and looks like its bottoming out at 15. We are in at 15.20!
Those are a lot of trades from mona's market- am lookin for a recovery in the markets next week- if not before close this evening. Dont fret the volatility- take heed and play the game. :)
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY...IN STOCKS
DOW DOWN 300 points on the ISM data- this was expected but the market is swoooning pretty badly today. Recession I thought was priced in. Last week on weak data the market rallied- the jobs growth was negative. The market rallied because the fed is ahead of the curve- cutting rates ferociously already. So this week by the same logic we should ignore bad data. But we are in panic mode again.
To my mind, buy again- Citigroup rebounded to 29.75 last week- is down to 27.25- today - longer term the recovery will take it much higher. Downside looks like 26 to me. Retail stocks rallied way ahead of the market in the last two weeks- all of em are down today. I am looking at Coach again at 30 and KSS (Kohls) at 43.50.
This week maybe technology bottoms out finally- with CSCO reporting on Wednesday. Lets hope John Chambers saves the tech sector- but even if he doesnt I dont think there is not much downside. CSCO at 23 looks cheap. BUT ahead of the earnings its tough buyin any stock today.
I had a bad stock pick- got to talk of the losers too. ITS SIRF- they took it somewhere and annihilated, mutilated, crushed it= down 8 bucks from its lows of 16!!! It missed and guided lower- I guess I got this one wrong, I should apologize for screamin a buy for SIRF. I still think the business is growing- the management screwed up by not fessing up ahead of the earnings- product mix is shifting and theres confusion about its numbers going forward. Competition is eating its margins a bit- as well. I guess BRCM is a safer play- dont think they hammer it down 50% in a day after being at a low of 22. Maybe I would not sell SIRF under 8- but watch for an aquirer to come in - its trading at attractive valuations to say the least-and on the day the market decides to literally KILL it, panic selling can cost you when it does recover! But that was a big ouch!
New picks I am looking at ACM- an infrastructure pick- at 25-looks like a buy. JEC we bought at 73 or so last week. Sold them at 80 yesterday and its down to 75 again. Am a nibbler. VLO we had a good ride from 49 to 60- Its down to 57- am watching for 55. Alcoa looks like a buy at 32.5- !
I am not expecting a rally into the close like other times- as this week brings- more news- and maybe the market bottoms out again- sometime thursday- thats the day when the European central bank meets- will they lower rates as well. That could be a positive.
We have to celebrate the great comeback the market had in the last two weeks- and not sulk when its down so much- just go ahead and buy as buying low and selling high is the only name of the game.
To my mind, buy again- Citigroup rebounded to 29.75 last week- is down to 27.25- today - longer term the recovery will take it much higher. Downside looks like 26 to me. Retail stocks rallied way ahead of the market in the last two weeks- all of em are down today. I am looking at Coach again at 30 and KSS (Kohls) at 43.50.
This week maybe technology bottoms out finally- with CSCO reporting on Wednesday. Lets hope John Chambers saves the tech sector- but even if he doesnt I dont think there is not much downside. CSCO at 23 looks cheap. BUT ahead of the earnings its tough buyin any stock today.
I had a bad stock pick- got to talk of the losers too. ITS SIRF- they took it somewhere and annihilated, mutilated, crushed it= down 8 bucks from its lows of 16!!! It missed and guided lower- I guess I got this one wrong, I should apologize for screamin a buy for SIRF. I still think the business is growing- the management screwed up by not fessing up ahead of the earnings- product mix is shifting and theres confusion about its numbers going forward. Competition is eating its margins a bit- as well. I guess BRCM is a safer play- dont think they hammer it down 50% in a day after being at a low of 22. Maybe I would not sell SIRF under 8- but watch for an aquirer to come in - its trading at attractive valuations to say the least-and on the day the market decides to literally KILL it, panic selling can cost you when it does recover! But that was a big ouch!
New picks I am looking at ACM- an infrastructure pick- at 25-looks like a buy. JEC we bought at 73 or so last week. Sold them at 80 yesterday and its down to 75 again. Am a nibbler. VLO we had a good ride from 49 to 60- Its down to 57- am watching for 55. Alcoa looks like a buy at 32.5- !
I am not expecting a rally into the close like other times- as this week brings- more news- and maybe the market bottoms out again- sometime thursday- thats the day when the European central bank meets- will they lower rates as well. That could be a positive.
We have to celebrate the great comeback the market had in the last two weeks- and not sulk when its down so much- just go ahead and buy as buying low and selling high is the only name of the game.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
RALLY BEGINS
Fed did cut 50 basis points. Markets rallied 200 points on the news and then believe it or not the Dow actually closed down 37. OPPORTUNITY could not get better than this.
Today they are up again- triple digits on the dow -up 150. Selling on a rally will help to raise cash. In our trading scene- DRYS broke out significantly. In at 50- sold at 74 today. PRGN in at 14- sold at 18.75 today. These are great holds but I will move on to the next beaten down stock. Stay tuned as I look for another winner.
Google reports after the bell. Me thinks if its not bad this one goes higher- from 550. But I dont play with such hi-fliers- ! But watchin its price action will help to determine if the sentiment has changed to positive. AMZN was down big time after earnings last evening -almost to 60- its up to 74 (up 2 and change) today- so those who sold off after earnings- lost big time. It pays to not panic.
Job numbers tomorrow is the only hurdle after which I see DOW 13000, Nasdaq 2450 and S&P 1420 next week. WE shall see. Meanwhile if the markets misbehave- take it as a chance to get in one final time before we begin the steady recovery.
Take a look at homebuilders - up for the month- looks like they hit bottom. What more action do we want to see before we get bullish? Beats me...
Meanwhile
Today they are up again- triple digits on the dow -up 150. Selling on a rally will help to raise cash. In our trading scene- DRYS broke out significantly. In at 50- sold at 74 today. PRGN in at 14- sold at 18.75 today. These are great holds but I will move on to the next beaten down stock. Stay tuned as I look for another winner.
Google reports after the bell. Me thinks if its not bad this one goes higher- from 550. But I dont play with such hi-fliers- ! But watchin its price action will help to determine if the sentiment has changed to positive. AMZN was down big time after earnings last evening -almost to 60- its up to 74 (up 2 and change) today- so those who sold off after earnings- lost big time. It pays to not panic.
Job numbers tomorrow is the only hurdle after which I see DOW 13000, Nasdaq 2450 and S&P 1420 next week. WE shall see. Meanwhile if the markets misbehave- take it as a chance to get in one final time before we begin the steady recovery.
Take a look at homebuilders - up for the month- looks like they hit bottom. What more action do we want to see before we get bullish? Beats me...
Meanwhile
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
BUY BUY BUY on DIPS
Brace yourselves I shall say as the FED chair braces itself to go ahead and cut rates by 50 basis points this afternoon. If they dont the markets will tank here. And then the world over and rather than not cut now and then cut tomorrow when we see collapses in the markets- he will do as desired by the markets. Its like a spoilt child these days -getting what it wants- or it will CRY. Never mind I am not ruling out a 25 basis instead of a 50 basis cut as BERNY is bold to say the least.
WE made some stellar gains last week. The dry goods sector- DRYS and PRGN are on fire and the bottom seems far. We sold some DRYS from 50 to 68 is good for me. And am holding onto PRGN- at 14- Its 18 today but the downside is not much. These stocks as I mentioned in my blog last week- were too beaten up and even a depression was priced in. We like to watch out when the beating is overdone and take opportunities to enhance our gains.
One more beaten up stock yesterday was VM Ware- the virtualisation play- spun off from EMC. It beat expectations on the earnings front but was shy by 5 million bucks on the revenue side. The stock got slaughtered, mutilated, abused... down to 55- from 85 in a day after having suffered a decline from a high of 125 or so already. I bought some today- at 54. Downside is 50- and its in a growth sector I like. This one I am excited about. AM hoping for the momentum to re-enter this one once technology starts recovering- very soon is my guess.
There is too much negativity- in the markets- if stocks sell off big time after the fed cuts- I am a buyer - there is no catalyst near term for a sell off other than those that are already discounted by the market.
A new stock pick= JEC- an infrastructure play- solid earnings and upped guidance. The stock has drifted down from 100 to about 73-74 today. I will buy some right away at 73.5 today and the rest if it goes down in a big selloff.
SIRF is down to 15- on no news. Maybe they expect a bad quarter- to my mind any bad news is priced into this one. The GPS chip business is to my mind a growing business- GRMN is down due to competition from cellphone makers that are incorporating GPS in their phones. On no news I think this one is a strong screaming buy at 15. We are in at 18 and now at 15! The last time I screamed to buy around 16- it bottomed and turned around to go as high at 30. We made good money along that move- and its time to pull the trigger again.
Thats it for now... get ready for the fed announcement- I shall say lets get them out of the way and rally.
WE made some stellar gains last week. The dry goods sector- DRYS and PRGN are on fire and the bottom seems far. We sold some DRYS from 50 to 68 is good for me. And am holding onto PRGN- at 14- Its 18 today but the downside is not much. These stocks as I mentioned in my blog last week- were too beaten up and even a depression was priced in. We like to watch out when the beating is overdone and take opportunities to enhance our gains.
One more beaten up stock yesterday was VM Ware- the virtualisation play- spun off from EMC. It beat expectations on the earnings front but was shy by 5 million bucks on the revenue side. The stock got slaughtered, mutilated, abused... down to 55- from 85 in a day after having suffered a decline from a high of 125 or so already. I bought some today- at 54. Downside is 50- and its in a growth sector I like. This one I am excited about. AM hoping for the momentum to re-enter this one once technology starts recovering- very soon is my guess.
There is too much negativity- in the markets- if stocks sell off big time after the fed cuts- I am a buyer - there is no catalyst near term for a sell off other than those that are already discounted by the market.
A new stock pick= JEC- an infrastructure play- solid earnings and upped guidance. The stock has drifted down from 100 to about 73-74 today. I will buy some right away at 73.5 today and the rest if it goes down in a big selloff.
SIRF is down to 15- on no news. Maybe they expect a bad quarter- to my mind any bad news is priced into this one. The GPS chip business is to my mind a growing business- GRMN is down due to competition from cellphone makers that are incorporating GPS in their phones. On no news I think this one is a strong screaming buy at 15. We are in at 18 and now at 15! The last time I screamed to buy around 16- it bottomed and turned around to go as high at 30. We made good money along that move- and its time to pull the trigger again.
Thats it for now... get ready for the fed announcement- I shall say lets get them out of the way and rally.
Friday, January 25, 2008
STOCKS HAVE SEEN THE WORST...
Huge selloff on Monday- looks like its way behind us. Cant see that in the rear view mirror as we are on the expressway of a solid recovery in the markets. Buying on that huge crash made us good money. VLO from 49 to 56 in 2 days- I took half off the table. BID from 28 to 33- sold half my position and JWN from 29 to 36- sold all of JWN. Am stayin with VLO (refiners have been unduly crushed... like there s no business) -with a target price of 60. And BID looks like oversold and will still go higher.
BRCM- we are in this one at various levels- from 28 to 22.... They reported good earnings. It was tradin up to 25 this morning but has pulled back to the 23.50 area- I think the worst is in this stock and when the company has reported good earnings- I am a buyer of more. MSFT and IBM have reported great numbers and once people realize these companies are still upbeat the fears of recession takin em down will die.
AKAM was a good trade from 26 to 31- I think it goes higher. Some of these stocks in good growing sectors have been pulled down needlessly due to fear. Keep the emotion out and pull the trigger. I have a target of 40 on this one- but will take some off at 33 if we get it.
I think if we stop being too emotional, we can get it right. Just watch the prices- objectively- stock gets hammered too much with no bad news- if the fundamentals are intact, there we have an opportunity to make money. IT is easy once you identify a trading range- for each stock that we are looking at. Being in and out of JWN for instance between 30 and 35- three times in a row -made us good money. Same with FRE- from 30 to 35- we made good money. Watch out for a dip below the trading range and then wait for the stock to settle down and go with the new trading range. In case of FRE- it dipped below 30 last month and then it crashed to 25 before recovering. So having a stop loss below the lower end of the trading range makes sense.
One stock that has done well for us= DRYS- we got in at 50 last week. ITs 60 and I still think its a buy. The Baltic Dry index has been coming down rather ferociously- amid the fear of slowdowns and recessions- but one has to recognize that its overdone and pick up the stocks that fell with it. We are in DRYS at 50 and PRGN at 14. DRYS is at 60 today and PRGN at 16... I think we will make more bucks if we hold on some more.
Next week the fed meets and will cut- how much is tough to say. I will take 25 basis. No cut after an emergency cut- will disappoint the markets. And looks like the Fed does not want to do that.
Retail and finance can be good plays as the momentum is just building. I like JNY (Jones Apparel) at 15.2 and ANN (Ann Taylor) at 21.5- these are trading like no one will ever buy their apparel no more. A speculative play I like is believe it or not- a solar play. YGE is at 24- in the volatile market this week its ran down all the way from 35 to 21. At 24 I am a nibbler. Target at least 30 in a day or two. TSO, a refiner hard hit may be a good idea too at 40. Too many stock ideas bodes a buyer beware- but I think its time to be in and not out of the market. Hold some stock and hold some cash at all times- the cash can be put to lucrative use on days such as Monday when you can get 10-12 per cent moves in a day.
BRCM- we are in this one at various levels- from 28 to 22.... They reported good earnings. It was tradin up to 25 this morning but has pulled back to the 23.50 area- I think the worst is in this stock and when the company has reported good earnings- I am a buyer of more. MSFT and IBM have reported great numbers and once people realize these companies are still upbeat the fears of recession takin em down will die.
AKAM was a good trade from 26 to 31- I think it goes higher. Some of these stocks in good growing sectors have been pulled down needlessly due to fear. Keep the emotion out and pull the trigger. I have a target of 40 on this one- but will take some off at 33 if we get it.
I think if we stop being too emotional, we can get it right. Just watch the prices- objectively- stock gets hammered too much with no bad news- if the fundamentals are intact, there we have an opportunity to make money. IT is easy once you identify a trading range- for each stock that we are looking at. Being in and out of JWN for instance between 30 and 35- three times in a row -made us good money. Same with FRE- from 30 to 35- we made good money. Watch out for a dip below the trading range and then wait for the stock to settle down and go with the new trading range. In case of FRE- it dipped below 30 last month and then it crashed to 25 before recovering. So having a stop loss below the lower end of the trading range makes sense.
One stock that has done well for us= DRYS- we got in at 50 last week. ITs 60 and I still think its a buy. The Baltic Dry index has been coming down rather ferociously- amid the fear of slowdowns and recessions- but one has to recognize that its overdone and pick up the stocks that fell with it. We are in DRYS at 50 and PRGN at 14. DRYS is at 60 today and PRGN at 16... I think we will make more bucks if we hold on some more.
Next week the fed meets and will cut- how much is tough to say. I will take 25 basis. No cut after an emergency cut- will disappoint the markets. And looks like the Fed does not want to do that.
Retail and finance can be good plays as the momentum is just building. I like JNY (Jones Apparel) at 15.2 and ANN (Ann Taylor) at 21.5- these are trading like no one will ever buy their apparel no more. A speculative play I like is believe it or not- a solar play. YGE is at 24- in the volatile market this week its ran down all the way from 35 to 21. At 24 I am a nibbler. Target at least 30 in a day or two. TSO, a refiner hard hit may be a good idea too at 40. Too many stock ideas bodes a buyer beware- but I think its time to be in and not out of the market. Hold some stock and hold some cash at all times- the cash can be put to lucrative use on days such as Monday when you can get 10-12 per cent moves in a day.
The worst is over, one would think with the remarkable move on the upside - up 800 points from the lows already. Soon they will tell us how low we are from the highs. I will say this- when you hear it cant go down anymore- remember that it can and it takes the money down with it.
So buy only on dips and I will stay with the beaten down stocks that look like emerging from the quicksand that pulled em down. Financials and retail look good for steady upward moves. Morgan Stanley at 49 looks interesting. Anyone with me? Do give me a feedback - would love to know if I am making sense- and if you the reader could give me your version of how the market is doing. ITs only money and theres loads to be made at our madmarket blog right here.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
BOTTOM is near
Yesterdays market action was comforting. Off 100+ on the DOW- not bad after the almost 500 point loss at the open. Global markets -Japan and Hong Kong and India were outstanding- 5-7 per cent increases across the board. But European markets slumped at the close as the ECB is still reluctant and uncertain- about lowering rates. Well, thats having an effect today and we have a panic selling again -down to 11775- far from 13000- and 14000 looks too good to be true.
Another catalyst is AAPLE that reported earnings that were more or less in line- a bit below street whispers- and the stock got hammered -down 25points to 130. I was wondering what would be a good entry point to buy Apple- 125 was what I was thinking. I cant believe we are almost there- and now I wonder if I do want to buy this one. Why not buy the cheaper stuff- a SNDK (25) or AKAM (26)- they make get cheaper as the market has no clue how much is enough on the downside. But these are good trades and longer term will be winners. Recessions are painful but they go away as action is taken to ease conditions and sentiments.
Be that as it may, the good part of todays story is that financials and retails seem to have put in a near term bottom. We sold Coach at 30 today- merely got my order filled as thats the high for the day so far. From 25 to 30 was fast. The next leg from 30 to 35 will come too but I dont have the patience. Thats for long term investors. I am buying BID (Sothebys) that has fallen below $30 - (28) believe it or not and no one has noticed. We got one more good round in Freddie Mac. From 27 to 31.5 - is good for me for the time being. FRE should break out to 40 sooner or later but I would wait for their earnings release before I am in it for good.
I have not dabbled in energy- but Valero at 49 looks do-able- so am nibbling some today.We have to capture these opportunities and buy the beaten up stocks as we get closer to a bottom.
Next week the fed meet and will cut again as is expected and the markets will give us some decent moves on the upside- says my crystal ball. I am certainly hoping the market closes on a better note- though at this point we are seein grief- ! Or we have another global slump and then we re-test todays lows tomorrow, blah blah...blah.
Safe stocks that seem to have little downside may be a place to go- INTC at 18.50 or AA at 27 or even a retail stock that has not surged alongwith the others- say ANN at 20! Those are new picks- good luck and stay in the game. It does not get more volatile than this.
Another catalyst is AAPLE that reported earnings that were more or less in line- a bit below street whispers- and the stock got hammered -down 25points to 130. I was wondering what would be a good entry point to buy Apple- 125 was what I was thinking. I cant believe we are almost there- and now I wonder if I do want to buy this one. Why not buy the cheaper stuff- a SNDK (25) or AKAM (26)- they make get cheaper as the market has no clue how much is enough on the downside. But these are good trades and longer term will be winners. Recessions are painful but they go away as action is taken to ease conditions and sentiments.
Be that as it may, the good part of todays story is that financials and retails seem to have put in a near term bottom. We sold Coach at 30 today- merely got my order filled as thats the high for the day so far. From 25 to 30 was fast. The next leg from 30 to 35 will come too but I dont have the patience. Thats for long term investors. I am buying BID (Sothebys) that has fallen below $30 - (28) believe it or not and no one has noticed. We got one more good round in Freddie Mac. From 27 to 31.5 - is good for me for the time being. FRE should break out to 40 sooner or later but I would wait for their earnings release before I am in it for good.
I have not dabbled in energy- but Valero at 49 looks do-able- so am nibbling some today.We have to capture these opportunities and buy the beaten up stocks as we get closer to a bottom.
Next week the fed meet and will cut again as is expected and the markets will give us some decent moves on the upside- says my crystal ball. I am certainly hoping the market closes on a better note- though at this point we are seein grief- ! Or we have another global slump and then we re-test todays lows tomorrow, blah blah...blah.
Safe stocks that seem to have little downside may be a place to go- INTC at 18.50 or AA at 27 or even a retail stock that has not surged alongwith the others- say ANN at 20! Those are new picks- good luck and stay in the game. It does not get more volatile than this.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
NOT BAD... I SEE ENCOURAGING SIGNS
VIXX= volatility hit 37- that is a sign of bottoming out.
FED cut by 75 basis in between meetings- sign of panic- so sign of bottom.
Financials are at rock bottom levels- bargain hunters come in.
Retail stocks behaving themselves in a market that is down 370 points- KSS is up, LOW is up, HD is up.
SO the sectors that have been hammered are now showing signs of recovering some.
I bought COH at 23.5- JWN at 29- TGT at 48 in retail.
FRE at 27 - and FNM at 31- these are the stocks that should rally when the fed cuts- while the market is still in a dillemma time to pull the trigger. Financials are to feel better when the fed cuts- but are still swooning- so time to buy them- !
INFY at 37 and CTSH at 24 and BRCM at 22 are looking too good to be true.
We have to realize that the global markets crashed because we started it- I should say the fears of recession out here and the fed doing nothing were the catalyst. Now with the fed having taken action, we have to feel better and the globe feels better. With markets in India feeling the pain of 20 per cent down turns in 2-3 days- on no bad news- I see upside rather than panic going into tomorrow- if wall street closes at least above its lows of today.
Brace yourselves for some great money making this week. Put in your buys today and trust me the outcome will be greeen. My trading cap says- we put in a botttom today. Touche.
Until the market rallies some at the close- the worst may not be over. But trading opportunities were never so good.
FED cut by 75 basis in between meetings- sign of panic- so sign of bottom.
Financials are at rock bottom levels- bargain hunters come in.
Retail stocks behaving themselves in a market that is down 370 points- KSS is up, LOW is up, HD is up.
SO the sectors that have been hammered are now showing signs of recovering some.
I bought COH at 23.5- JWN at 29- TGT at 48 in retail.
FRE at 27 - and FNM at 31- these are the stocks that should rally when the fed cuts- while the market is still in a dillemma time to pull the trigger. Financials are to feel better when the fed cuts- but are still swooning- so time to buy them- !
INFY at 37 and CTSH at 24 and BRCM at 22 are looking too good to be true.
We have to realize that the global markets crashed because we started it- I should say the fears of recession out here and the fed doing nothing were the catalyst. Now with the fed having taken action, we have to feel better and the globe feels better. With markets in India feeling the pain of 20 per cent down turns in 2-3 days- on no bad news- I see upside rather than panic going into tomorrow- if wall street closes at least above its lows of today.
Brace yourselves for some great money making this week. Put in your buys today and trust me the outcome will be greeen. My trading cap says- we put in a botttom today. Touche.
Until the market rallies some at the close- the worst may not be over. But trading opportunities were never so good.
GLOBAL MELDOWN... hang in there...
If faint of heart today is not the day to watch the action on wall street. The global market collapsed - while we were closed over the long weekend.
FED acted- cut 75 basis points. That was a shock for the market- but I think it was pretty much the least they could do. Though nothing can stop us from going down big time on the open- to my mind DOW goes to 11600- making it a nice hefty 20 per cent down from the highs- and so do the other indices- hit 20 + corrections from the highs. And then this FED cut reminds the market that all is not lost. Market will be at its worst in the morning- and the VIXX will zoom above 30.... capitulation is on its way. BUY if you have cash and the courage to hang in there. SUCH opportunities dont come by everyday.
When every stock looks like its on sale- you got to buy what you like.
More ... as the day progresses.
FED acted- cut 75 basis points. That was a shock for the market- but I think it was pretty much the least they could do. Though nothing can stop us from going down big time on the open- to my mind DOW goes to 11600- making it a nice hefty 20 per cent down from the highs- and so do the other indices- hit 20 + corrections from the highs. And then this FED cut reminds the market that all is not lost. Market will be at its worst in the morning- and the VIXX will zoom above 30.... capitulation is on its way. BUY if you have cash and the courage to hang in there. SUCH opportunities dont come by everyday.
When every stock looks like its on sale- you got to buy what you like.
More ... as the day progresses.
Friday, January 18, 2008
BEARs are HUNGRY
The bear is hungry. He has gobbled more than his share in the last couple of weeks than he did all year -!
We are in a bear market, they say on wall street. Naming it a bear market does not make it easy. It changes my trading strategy when the market breaks key technical levels like it did this week. Not much, just got to be out sooner at lower highs and get in at lower lows.
What happened? The markets were too resilient in the face of the gloom.
The Philadelphia Fed index slumped to minus 20.9 in January - the lowest reading since October 2001 - from minus 1.6 in December.
The Philly Fed data is significant because this is historically the most reliable signal for the national economy of all the regional surveys. Whenever we have breached the minus 20 level, we have fallen into recession.
So? We all knew we are in a recession. This just confirms it. A plethora of data will follow that confirms recession. Are we going to be down every time data shows up? Then lets expect a full fledged 20 per cent down from highs- that puts DOW at 11500 or so- not to worry - in the environment of volatility we are in- this can take 2 days. And then it gets better.
Well, stay tuned... and lets watch for stocks going up on bad news- those are the safe ones to pick. I do like the DRY bulk sector. DRYS is one (low $50s) and PRGN -($14) a lower priced stock in the same industry. These are pricing in a recession all over the world. Maybe they underestimate the un-stoppable growth in emerging economies- like India and China that account for a good part of the trade. Nibbling today for a quick trade if they turn around. And then we wait for DOW to go below 12000 and see how these stocks perform.
I will not let a rally today misguide me- if I am in the money I take some cash out -so we are ready to buy on weakness (collapses) next week.
"Mamma" my son is nudging me while I divert my attention from him to my blog. "What is it, dear?"
"Look... at this picture... isnt it adorable?"
"Wha...? OH!" It was a page from the JAN 2008 AAA Car and Travel issue- a picture of a bear in ALASKA waters where one can see "mother bears carry flopping fish to hungry cubs, while the bald eagles perched in surrounding trees."
"I like bears..."said my son looking to me for approval.
They are hungry I shall say this much for now. "Go find a picture of a bull..." I ushered him to read something different.
Hang in there. Opportunity for cash -put it to work. I am bull-bear neutral as you know. More like an elephant- the new animal on wall street who waits and watches and runs faster than bulls and bears when the time is ripe. Lets be stable and patient and above all lets never panic.
We are in a bear market, they say on wall street. Naming it a bear market does not make it easy. It changes my trading strategy when the market breaks key technical levels like it did this week. Not much, just got to be out sooner at lower highs and get in at lower lows.
What happened? The markets were too resilient in the face of the gloom.
The Philadelphia Fed index slumped to minus 20.9 in January - the lowest reading since October 2001 - from minus 1.6 in December.
The Philly Fed data is significant because this is historically the most reliable signal for the national economy of all the regional surveys. Whenever we have breached the minus 20 level, we have fallen into recession.
So? We all knew we are in a recession. This just confirms it. A plethora of data will follow that confirms recession. Are we going to be down every time data shows up? Then lets expect a full fledged 20 per cent down from highs- that puts DOW at 11500 or so- not to worry - in the environment of volatility we are in- this can take 2 days. And then it gets better.
Well, stay tuned... and lets watch for stocks going up on bad news- those are the safe ones to pick. I do like the DRY bulk sector. DRYS is one (low $50s) and PRGN -($14) a lower priced stock in the same industry. These are pricing in a recession all over the world. Maybe they underestimate the un-stoppable growth in emerging economies- like India and China that account for a good part of the trade. Nibbling today for a quick trade if they turn around. And then we wait for DOW to go below 12000 and see how these stocks perform.
I will not let a rally today misguide me- if I am in the money I take some cash out -so we are ready to buy on weakness (collapses) next week.
"Mamma" my son is nudging me while I divert my attention from him to my blog. "What is it, dear?"
"Look... at this picture... isnt it adorable?"
"Wha...? OH!" It was a page from the JAN 2008 AAA Car and Travel issue- a picture of a bear in ALASKA waters where one can see "mother bears carry flopping fish to hungry cubs, while the bald eagles perched in surrounding trees."
"I like bears..."said my son looking to me for approval.
They are hungry I shall say this much for now. "Go find a picture of a bull..." I ushered him to read something different.
Hang in there. Opportunity for cash -put it to work. I am bull-bear neutral as you know. More like an elephant- the new animal on wall street who waits and watches and runs faster than bulls and bears when the time is ripe. Lets be stable and patient and above all lets never panic.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
FEDspeaks- STOCKS TANK
FED speaks today- and with every phrase however well-phrased- he is breathing trouble for stocks. He gave his economic outlook- pretty grim. Tis good he is downgrading growth for 2008. Everyone knows that including the stock market. We need one big whooosh to the downside so everyone and his uncle agrees that we have hit a short term bottom on the market. And we need a steep hike in the VIXX (remember the volatality index) to the level above 30- it was about 25 yesterday. When that happens everyone who wanted to panic has done so- and sold and then theres no room but for the market to go up. Pretty simple. Until you dont feel like throwing up as you see the stock prices collapse- or throw in the towel- either of the two- the stock market has not bottomed. Thats a pretty ugly way to look at it. But with DOW 12300- ouch- and S&P 1350 - Nasdaq-2375 - another 2 per cent moves on the downside may help to get the bottom in and so the future better off- as we adjust to grimmer prospects.
Why wont the fed chariman just cut rates 2 weeks earlier- than on Jan 30 one thinks as the action will speak louder than the long winded speech-. He is painting a grim growth and things havin worsened scenario- just do the rate cut right away. Blah blah blah... Jim Cramer is right in expressing that the FED is blowin it and I think by comin on live on national TV and talkin about the same crisis over again without givin the rate cuts is a bit frustrating to say the least.
The only positive I can take out of this bear market is that there will be light at the end of the tunnel- a bounce is what I call it. Hang in there-
We had a goood ride in FREDDIE MAC- took my position off yesterday at 35 - and am sure glad I did. ITs 30 today- and am a buyer all over again- as when the fed does ease rates FRE will wake up again!
Its the day the stock market heard it all over again from the FED and crashed -300-400 points on the DOW- I am afraid of predicting- though we are already down 150. And then in the last hour I am hoping for the rebound. Never a dooms day -always opportunity when its this bad. Use the free cash wisely- stocks will give more return than cash- once this turmoil ends- it does end - believe me.
Why wont the fed chariman just cut rates 2 weeks earlier- than on Jan 30 one thinks as the action will speak louder than the long winded speech-. He is painting a grim growth and things havin worsened scenario- just do the rate cut right away. Blah blah blah... Jim Cramer is right in expressing that the FED is blowin it and I think by comin on live on national TV and talkin about the same crisis over again without givin the rate cuts is a bit frustrating to say the least.
The only positive I can take out of this bear market is that there will be light at the end of the tunnel- a bounce is what I call it. Hang in there-
We had a goood ride in FREDDIE MAC- took my position off yesterday at 35 - and am sure glad I did. ITs 30 today- and am a buyer all over again- as when the fed does ease rates FRE will wake up again!
Its the day the stock market heard it all over again from the FED and crashed -300-400 points on the DOW- I am afraid of predicting- though we are already down 150. And then in the last hour I am hoping for the rebound. Never a dooms day -always opportunity when its this bad. Use the free cash wisely- stocks will give more return than cash- once this turmoil ends- it does end - believe me.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
DOWN below 1200
Bull or bear is the debate. It gets weary supporting the bull. But we are not too worried about who rules as long as we are on the right side of the trade.
IBM saves the day, INTC ruins it... earnings season is painful.
Rule of thumb, if you be a trader dont hold stock ahead of the earnings unless its been beaten down too much before and you miss out the bounce on earnings.
In the market no one wants to play bottom or call the bottom.
Financials other than Citi seem to be recovering. JPM and Wells Fargo had earnings out that were not that bad- Citi's $18 billion write down this quarter make the $1- 2 billion writedowns look lovely. Thats why JPM is up 2 bucks and WFC is treading higher. C is at a 52 week low- am tired of saying it does not go lower. It traded under 26- the bounce back will be nice and lucrative so I shall say its worth holding onto- The bottoming process is always painful. Lets give Pandit some respect- he is making bold moves- slashing the dividend was a great idea- makes no sense to dole out cash to investors when they know there are financial issues so grime.
I have one pick among the technology beaten downs - NVDA is down to 24 from almost 30 couple of days ago. It was downgraded and INTC earnings being lackluster did not help. The real growth story is being ignored and at less than 14 times earnings -its time to bottom pick this one.
Markets will be volatile until the fed cuts and if we have to wait till the official meeting on JAN 30, many more will throw in the towel and bring the markets to bear market territory if we are not already there. If you have holding power buy and hold through the crisis - after such horrible downturns markets do emerge higher as action is taken to combat the crises- be they housing, sub prime or recessionary.
ONE intersting stock I was watching looks attractive- DRYS a bulk shipper of dry commodities like steel, coal etc. Its down from $130 to $50 today. Panic has set in as it broke all technical levels. And the news apart from the Baltic index having dropped consistently recently, is that the company purchased a stake in OCEAN RIG, an offshore driller -not taken well by the market. To my mind these are blips in an other wise robust global demand. This is a good buy. Would buy some now at 50 and wait for it to settle down or start recovering and then add more. Good for a trade and good for long term as well.
Thats all from me on this gloomy day on wall street. Look for stocks rallying on bad news -that signals a bottom.
Shorting oil stocks was a good idea. SLB and XOM are down big time this week. Selling my puts on them.
IBM saves the day, INTC ruins it... earnings season is painful.
Rule of thumb, if you be a trader dont hold stock ahead of the earnings unless its been beaten down too much before and you miss out the bounce on earnings.
In the market no one wants to play bottom or call the bottom.
Financials other than Citi seem to be recovering. JPM and Wells Fargo had earnings out that were not that bad- Citi's $18 billion write down this quarter make the $1- 2 billion writedowns look lovely. Thats why JPM is up 2 bucks and WFC is treading higher. C is at a 52 week low- am tired of saying it does not go lower. It traded under 26- the bounce back will be nice and lucrative so I shall say its worth holding onto- The bottoming process is always painful. Lets give Pandit some respect- he is making bold moves- slashing the dividend was a great idea- makes no sense to dole out cash to investors when they know there are financial issues so grime.
I have one pick among the technology beaten downs - NVDA is down to 24 from almost 30 couple of days ago. It was downgraded and INTC earnings being lackluster did not help. The real growth story is being ignored and at less than 14 times earnings -its time to bottom pick this one.
Markets will be volatile until the fed cuts and if we have to wait till the official meeting on JAN 30, many more will throw in the towel and bring the markets to bear market territory if we are not already there. If you have holding power buy and hold through the crisis - after such horrible downturns markets do emerge higher as action is taken to combat the crises- be they housing, sub prime or recessionary.
ONE intersting stock I was watching looks attractive- DRYS a bulk shipper of dry commodities like steel, coal etc. Its down from $130 to $50 today. Panic has set in as it broke all technical levels. And the news apart from the Baltic index having dropped consistently recently, is that the company purchased a stake in OCEAN RIG, an offshore driller -not taken well by the market. To my mind these are blips in an other wise robust global demand. This is a good buy. Would buy some now at 50 and wait for it to settle down or start recovering and then add more. Good for a trade and good for long term as well.
Thats all from me on this gloomy day on wall street. Look for stocks rallying on bad news -that signals a bottom.
Shorting oil stocks was a good idea. SLB and XOM are down big time this week. Selling my puts on them.
Monday, January 14, 2008
BOUNCE- finally
IBM saved the year? IBM announced earnings will be much ahead of estimates. And that was enough to make the markets soar monday morning. To my mind it was way oversold and on Friday we reached the critical technical levels without breaking down further, so a bounce or a rather strong rally commences.
Tomorrow the financials start the confession. Citigroup will report numbers and the street says it will report 24 billion dollars of writedowns- OUCHAHOO. But what is remarkable is even after hearing this number C is trading up .20- .25 cents today. Resilience rules- I think there is less downside. So if they contain their reporting to what the street is saying, C rallies into the 30s. So am bravely holding onto our C position into the earnings. The downside is 25- if they were to report worse numbers.Other financials like JP Morgan that are better off with less subprime issues- should do well- JPM at 41 looks good to me.
COACH was downgraded today when its at 26. The analysts are hopeless and though I have been wrong in pounding for COH at 30 and 28- I dare say at 25.20 I am a buyer - for a quick rebound to 30 as people realize this stock is cheap even after the lowered estimates. Coach has a presence in emerging markets so even while US gals are holding onto their old handbags conserving the money in there... not so overseas. The company announced buybacks when the stock was trading at 32 or so. And the worst retail scene is in the price. My case rests. I shall keep a stop loss at 24.5- if it breaks 25... well we will re-visit this discussion.
About our winners, FRE from 25 to 30.75- I am selling half my position, as I think its got no reason to not run up to 35- ! And still raising the money will help fund my Coach investment.
I found a cheap stock that I was watching some time back. LLNW- in the streaming media business (AKAM is the leader) - the stock has been beaten down from 13 to 6 in the past couple of months. Last week it reported that the revenues are going to be ahead of estimates. See what that did to the markets today when IBM said just that. LLNW is still trading around 6.50- the market behaves itself and this one could be reversing up to 9-10 ...is my opinion- may have to be patient- the bottomline is that its in a hot sector- a new IPO -just hasn't kicked off interest yet. If the numbers are getting better as the company announced- the stock price looks like bottomed.
Not much else. I see no hurdles for a straight up move- and getting in and out of stocks at bottom levels- makes good money for us.
This week will be volatile- earnings reports from financials, INTC and IBM and also the inflation PPI and CPI reports have got to be watched- as strong numbers may prompt the fed to act sooner. Will see.
BUY on pullbacks is my advice. Sell a winners and move onto find the next beaten down potential winner.
Tomorrow the financials start the confession. Citigroup will report numbers and the street says it will report 24 billion dollars of writedowns- OUCHAHOO. But what is remarkable is even after hearing this number C is trading up .20- .25 cents today. Resilience rules- I think there is less downside. So if they contain their reporting to what the street is saying, C rallies into the 30s. So am bravely holding onto our C position into the earnings. The downside is 25- if they were to report worse numbers.Other financials like JP Morgan that are better off with less subprime issues- should do well- JPM at 41 looks good to me.
COACH was downgraded today when its at 26. The analysts are hopeless and though I have been wrong in pounding for COH at 30 and 28- I dare say at 25.20 I am a buyer - for a quick rebound to 30 as people realize this stock is cheap even after the lowered estimates. Coach has a presence in emerging markets so even while US gals are holding onto their old handbags conserving the money in there... not so overseas. The company announced buybacks when the stock was trading at 32 or so. And the worst retail scene is in the price. My case rests. I shall keep a stop loss at 24.5- if it breaks 25... well we will re-visit this discussion.
About our winners, FRE from 25 to 30.75- I am selling half my position, as I think its got no reason to not run up to 35- ! And still raising the money will help fund my Coach investment.
I found a cheap stock that I was watching some time back. LLNW- in the streaming media business (AKAM is the leader) - the stock has been beaten down from 13 to 6 in the past couple of months. Last week it reported that the revenues are going to be ahead of estimates. See what that did to the markets today when IBM said just that. LLNW is still trading around 6.50- the market behaves itself and this one could be reversing up to 9-10 ...is my opinion- may have to be patient- the bottomline is that its in a hot sector- a new IPO -just hasn't kicked off interest yet. If the numbers are getting better as the company announced- the stock price looks like bottomed.
Not much else. I see no hurdles for a straight up move- and getting in and out of stocks at bottom levels- makes good money for us.
This week will be volatile- earnings reports from financials, INTC and IBM and also the inflation PPI and CPI reports have got to be watched- as strong numbers may prompt the fed to act sooner. Will see.
BUY on pullbacks is my advice. Sell a winners and move onto find the next beaten down potential winner.
Friday, January 11, 2008
SO FAR SO GOOD... VOLATILITY rules...!
We ended up in the green alright last evening as investors realized rate cuts are coming and the economy will be saved if its in danger. A catalyst to drive the market higher was the BANK of AMERICA takeover of COUNTRYWIDE FINANCIAL. That was a boost for the sentiment - that ailing financial companies will be bought out. Makes sense. I bought some WM at 13.5 on hearing the Countrywide bailout. It was the immediate next in line if at all. Its trading at 15 today- as this morning brought talks of JP Morgan showing interest in WM.
All in all the DOW is down 180 points and NASDAQ down 30 points... etc. CANNOT emphasize it enough. Such days are a traders paradise.
When a sigh of relief is to be breathed and the market just plunges, we got to buy. Sooner or later bulls and investors will put in their money in US stocks- who dont want to miss the boat for the year.
We hold CITI and FRE both going higher. Am adding technology stocks- BRCM at 24, SNDK at 28.3 and CTSH at 27.5- this ones like a falling knife today.
BRCM is hovering around the 52 week low- just capitulating -is it called or consolidating. Whatever that may be, it looks good for a trade and for long term at 23.75. SNDK also fell out of bed last week- flirting with its 52 week low. I am in at 28.25 today. Sandisk has been beaten profusely- thats what I like- beaten down stocks that still have a life- at the Consumer Electronic show- the plethora of new products bodes well for the likes of SNDK- its flash memory is used across the board- in the stuff that works today- mobile, digital cameras, gaming consoles etc. The stock is down from 60.
CTSH is an - Indian offshore provider based in NJ. Its in IT consulting and CRM solutions- a hot sector. The stock has run down from 48 to 30. Today down 2 bucks- as an analyst started coverage with NEUTRAL. I say BUY. This and the likes of INFY will have positive momentum as rupee appreciation may be contained in 2008 (~5%) and U.S economic slowdown pushes more offshoring to India and China.
Well, we are in and wait for green at the end of the day- or next week brings us toward rally mode again.
Mind you a lot of the bad news about US slowdown is in the market prices. These volatile days give us a chance to make money. In and out is the only way in this market. BUY and HOLD can be painful to say the least. Trading is the way to go. You could trade in and out of stocks like TGT or COH- on the retail side or C or LEH on the financial side, good fundamentally yet very volatile... ! The way we are doing it is observing the trading range - buy on the lower end and sell at the higher end.
It gets easier if you are on the right side. We avoid the high-fliers- like GOOG and AAPL as any plunge in the market sentiment can take them down too fast. The ones that are beaten down tend to settle down at the bottom- where we pick em up for trades at monas mad market. I hope you are reading and benefitting.
All in all the DOW is down 180 points and NASDAQ down 30 points... etc. CANNOT emphasize it enough. Such days are a traders paradise.
When a sigh of relief is to be breathed and the market just plunges, we got to buy. Sooner or later bulls and investors will put in their money in US stocks- who dont want to miss the boat for the year.
We hold CITI and FRE both going higher. Am adding technology stocks- BRCM at 24, SNDK at 28.3 and CTSH at 27.5- this ones like a falling knife today.
BRCM is hovering around the 52 week low- just capitulating -is it called or consolidating. Whatever that may be, it looks good for a trade and for long term at 23.75. SNDK also fell out of bed last week- flirting with its 52 week low. I am in at 28.25 today. Sandisk has been beaten profusely- thats what I like- beaten down stocks that still have a life- at the Consumer Electronic show- the plethora of new products bodes well for the likes of SNDK- its flash memory is used across the board- in the stuff that works today- mobile, digital cameras, gaming consoles etc. The stock is down from 60.
CTSH is an - Indian offshore provider based in NJ. Its in IT consulting and CRM solutions- a hot sector. The stock has run down from 48 to 30. Today down 2 bucks- as an analyst started coverage with NEUTRAL. I say BUY. This and the likes of INFY will have positive momentum as rupee appreciation may be contained in 2008 (~5%) and U.S economic slowdown pushes more offshoring to India and China.
Well, we are in and wait for green at the end of the day- or next week brings us toward rally mode again.
Mind you a lot of the bad news about US slowdown is in the market prices. These volatile days give us a chance to make money. In and out is the only way in this market. BUY and HOLD can be painful to say the least. Trading is the way to go. You could trade in and out of stocks like TGT or COH- on the retail side or C or LEH on the financial side, good fundamentally yet very volatile... ! The way we are doing it is observing the trading range - buy on the lower end and sell at the higher end.
It gets easier if you are on the right side. We avoid the high-fliers- like GOOG and AAPL as any plunge in the market sentiment can take them down too fast. The ones that are beaten down tend to settle down at the bottom- where we pick em up for trades at monas mad market. I hope you are reading and benefitting.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
SUBSTANTIVE RATE CUTS COMING UP...
The minute the statement was out from Fedspeaking Mr. Berny... the Dow rallied up 120 points- it read that they stand ready to take substantive additional action -that is more rate cuts- obviously that was what the market was looking for.
Once he started speaking - he made a nice sober longwinded speech about the subprime mess- explained it well for all of us to understand the crisis, the markets gave up all the gains and was down again. Dumb?
All I can say is the fed is ready and if it says `substantive' it means they are going to cut for several meetings if not in between meetings. So tis a positive for the markets. As usual the market takes its time to digest the details. We are holding onto our positions accumulated yesterday in addition to earlier weeks- and we shall await a rally- the market sometimes is toooo tired to keep going down - its called an OVERSOLD condition- and thats when we find the best trades out there.
Soon the bargain hunters will realize that theres more reason to be in the market than out. The stock market is the best alternative if nothing else- right now-! The S&P is at historically low p-e ratio of less than 14.
Other than the Fed speak- there were the bad retail numbers that were lower than the lowered estimates- but most retail stocks are holding up well. A lot of bad news is priced in surprizingly so. KSS was down 10 bucks to 40 ahead of the numbers- now they come out and lower the earnings estimate by 10-12 cents- thats the time to buy. It bottomed at 38 yesterday. TGT seems to have bottomed at 48- its 51 already. Not that the numbers were good.
Once more companies come out with lowered earnings estimates the stocks start bottoming out- as the collapse occurs pretty much before the announcement. Wonder how the market knows but it does.
Last but not the least the Fed does not think we are going into a recession- so thats as far as the R word goes - ! To my mind the fed will not declare it- we are already in a recession- and once its announced we will be on our way to recovery as the stimulus packages start working...
So theres no need to swoon at this point. Lets wait and watch...
Am aiming for some green today and a big rally tomorrow. Hope that sounds good enough for now...
Once he started speaking - he made a nice sober longwinded speech about the subprime mess- explained it well for all of us to understand the crisis, the markets gave up all the gains and was down again. Dumb?
All I can say is the fed is ready and if it says `substantive' it means they are going to cut for several meetings if not in between meetings. So tis a positive for the markets. As usual the market takes its time to digest the details. We are holding onto our positions accumulated yesterday in addition to earlier weeks- and we shall await a rally- the market sometimes is toooo tired to keep going down - its called an OVERSOLD condition- and thats when we find the best trades out there.
Soon the bargain hunters will realize that theres more reason to be in the market than out. The stock market is the best alternative if nothing else- right now-! The S&P is at historically low p-e ratio of less than 14.
Other than the Fed speak- there were the bad retail numbers that were lower than the lowered estimates- but most retail stocks are holding up well. A lot of bad news is priced in surprizingly so. KSS was down 10 bucks to 40 ahead of the numbers- now they come out and lower the earnings estimate by 10-12 cents- thats the time to buy. It bottomed at 38 yesterday. TGT seems to have bottomed at 48- its 51 already. Not that the numbers were good.
Once more companies come out with lowered earnings estimates the stocks start bottoming out- as the collapse occurs pretty much before the announcement. Wonder how the market knows but it does.
Last but not the least the Fed does not think we are going into a recession- so thats as far as the R word goes - ! To my mind the fed will not declare it- we are already in a recession- and once its announced we will be on our way to recovery as the stimulus packages start working...
So theres no need to swoon at this point. Lets wait and watch...
Am aiming for some green today and a big rally tomorrow. Hope that sounds good enough for now...
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
NASDAQ _POSITIVE -LETS DO IT!
AM calling for a positive move on the NASDAQ after 8 consecutive sessions in the red. Its 3 pm and we have an hour wherein these days we get collapses. Today seems the day we break the trend. Collectively we shall breathe- a sigh of relief.
Not much can be said yet. Positive close today will still be heading into earnings releases being triggered off by Alcoa. I would go ahead and buy AA ahead of the earnings at 30.20 - any bad news is priced in and if its really bad the downside is 28 to my mind. Lets see... wait watch and buy as we see the opportunities.
Not much can be said yet. Positive close today will still be heading into earnings releases being triggered off by Alcoa. I would go ahead and buy AA ahead of the earnings at 30.20 - any bad news is priced in and if its really bad the downside is 28 to my mind. Lets see... wait watch and buy as we see the opportunities.
BUY or REPENT later...
Easy for me to say BUY all the time. OVERSOLD is one reason to buy. Recession coming up- finally more people acknowledging the prognosis- thats when the worst is in the stocks- give or take 500 points =OUCH. To my mind stocks are in a recession- already- 50-80 per cent down in financials, retail and housing. So thats another reason to buy now.
No alternative looks more attractive- the risk-reward is better in stocks. Would you rather take a 2-3 % in treasuries- or bank cds that convert into negative value if you figure inflation. CASH is dead if not put into stocks- a trading opportunity and a long term horizon if we tread lower- is here. Nibble if you havent already bought - if you are fully invested hold on and do not look at the daily gyrations because that may set off a panic selling. Thats the last action I would advocate- patience is rewarded.
We took a hit in financials and retail- Citigroup, Freddie Mac and the likes of Coach- but am a buyer of all three today - Citi at 26.5 and FRE at 25.25 -wow and Coach at 26.25 will be good trades while I hold onto the earlier positions for a longer term.
If we close in the green tonite we are off to a good start- its after all a lot to do with sentiment- between 3 and 4 pm we lost it all. Today we may rise instead and thats what I am hoping for. As the month progresses we get closer to the Fed meeting- a cut is imminent- 50 basis will set us into rally mode again.
I am adding some more positions in technology. SIRF, remember the chip-maker for GPS devices- is down all the way to 19- unbelievable price action on no news- this one had a good time from 17 to 30 and is down to 19 again. Global positioning is going global and just about picking up. Also innovative uses for gps may provide a surge for the chips.
GRMN is down big time down 10 bucks today on some analysts negative remarks. I would pull the trigger on GRMN too under $70 looks good- maybe just half my potential position sometime today and the rest if it takes another dive soon. The fears of pricing pressures are KNOWN and competition from NOKIA incorporating gps in its phones- is a KNOWN too- so this late downward reaction by the market on GRMNs price is a good opportunity.
If we do happen to collapse into the closing hour- that will be one of the last opportunities for some time so I would not put all my cash in right away. Maybe waiting and watching todays price action will bode well. Major down drift will give us a case of fools rushing out while we at monasmadmarket quietly dare to tread in and hold on for a day soon when all will be green.
Thanks for reading. Do interact- I would love to hear from readers- what they think is important to me as sentiment rules more than anything else.
No alternative looks more attractive- the risk-reward is better in stocks. Would you rather take a 2-3 % in treasuries- or bank cds that convert into negative value if you figure inflation. CASH is dead if not put into stocks- a trading opportunity and a long term horizon if we tread lower- is here. Nibble if you havent already bought - if you are fully invested hold on and do not look at the daily gyrations because that may set off a panic selling. Thats the last action I would advocate- patience is rewarded.
We took a hit in financials and retail- Citigroup, Freddie Mac and the likes of Coach- but am a buyer of all three today - Citi at 26.5 and FRE at 25.25 -wow and Coach at 26.25 will be good trades while I hold onto the earlier positions for a longer term.
If we close in the green tonite we are off to a good start- its after all a lot to do with sentiment- between 3 and 4 pm we lost it all. Today we may rise instead and thats what I am hoping for. As the month progresses we get closer to the Fed meeting- a cut is imminent- 50 basis will set us into rally mode again.
I am adding some more positions in technology. SIRF, remember the chip-maker for GPS devices- is down all the way to 19- unbelievable price action on no news- this one had a good time from 17 to 30 and is down to 19 again. Global positioning is going global and just about picking up. Also innovative uses for gps may provide a surge for the chips.
GRMN is down big time down 10 bucks today on some analysts negative remarks. I would pull the trigger on GRMN too under $70 looks good- maybe just half my potential position sometime today and the rest if it takes another dive soon. The fears of pricing pressures are KNOWN and competition from NOKIA incorporating gps in its phones- is a KNOWN too- so this late downward reaction by the market on GRMNs price is a good opportunity.
If we do happen to collapse into the closing hour- that will be one of the last opportunities for some time so I would not put all my cash in right away. Maybe waiting and watching todays price action will bode well. Major down drift will give us a case of fools rushing out while we at monasmadmarket quietly dare to tread in and hold on for a day soon when all will be green.
Thanks for reading. Do interact- I would love to hear from readers- what they think is important to me as sentiment rules more than anything else.
Monday, January 7, 2008
BUY signal from me...
Happy New Year to my readers, albeit a bit late. Needless to say it aint been happy at wall street. I have been away- to India - if I may admit. That country is booming- I see money pouring into consumption - be it retail or be it real estate. The boom seems to have just begun- does not look like any slow down out there. Credit and consumption mania has reached the mass market. And the upper middle class is basking in the newly found wealth- of the stock market gains- investing it in real estate like theres no tomorrow- pardon the cliches. Making a long story short- global growth is on.
Psst. wall street seems to have swoooned pretty badly this year - down 4 to 6 % on the Dow and Nasdaq already. Would not look too bad were it not for the year being just 6-7 days old. Down a per cent a day is cruel. Today we shall see the turnaround. The selling sometimes just is way overdone. And in my theory there still is no NEW bad news- its all just getting way over discounted. So my sense is to buy on these massive pull backs. Technology and retail and financials all look good for a trade. So am putting more money into Citigroup at 28.15 today and Freddie Mac at 28.70 looks like a steal all over again.
A new pick for myself and my audience is NTRI- Nutrisystems- at 27... the financials are compelling- the hi-flier has been beaten down too fast. If you notice once a stock gets out of favor it goes way down to its lows- so thats the time to buy. Once it comes into favor- to my mind the fundamentals of the stock can be a catalyst- the upswing can be good.
I am also adding a new stock- ASYS- at 11.25- its in the solar sector- on the technology side- more on this one - soon.
For now am announcing a rally- relief or recovery or call it what you want- any thing the Fed says or the President for that matter- is discounted. Lets look for a rally- as bargain hunters put their money where it belongs- US market on pullbacks.
We sold JWN at 37 and INFY at 46- am buying both today at 32 and 42 respectively. KSS - at 41 and LOW at 21 look okay- for a few bucks.
More positive sentiment coming up at monas mad market- once she settles down to gettin up in the morning instead of the night- as jet lag holds her tight! Gnite- yawn- see you at more respectable levels tomorrow- DOW 13000 and NASDAQ 2550- at least. S&P had a long run down from 1490 to 1410- well- cant see nothin but some recovery. Whew.
Apologies for the erratic blogs- now will be more accurate and regular. Happy New Year, all!
Psst. wall street seems to have swoooned pretty badly this year - down 4 to 6 % on the Dow and Nasdaq already. Would not look too bad were it not for the year being just 6-7 days old. Down a per cent a day is cruel. Today we shall see the turnaround. The selling sometimes just is way overdone. And in my theory there still is no NEW bad news- its all just getting way over discounted. So my sense is to buy on these massive pull backs. Technology and retail and financials all look good for a trade. So am putting more money into Citigroup at 28.15 today and Freddie Mac at 28.70 looks like a steal all over again.
A new pick for myself and my audience is NTRI- Nutrisystems- at 27... the financials are compelling- the hi-flier has been beaten down too fast. If you notice once a stock gets out of favor it goes way down to its lows- so thats the time to buy. Once it comes into favor- to my mind the fundamentals of the stock can be a catalyst- the upswing can be good.
I am also adding a new stock- ASYS- at 11.25- its in the solar sector- on the technology side- more on this one - soon.
For now am announcing a rally- relief or recovery or call it what you want- any thing the Fed says or the President for that matter- is discounted. Lets look for a rally- as bargain hunters put their money where it belongs- US market on pullbacks.
We sold JWN at 37 and INFY at 46- am buying both today at 32 and 42 respectively. KSS - at 41 and LOW at 21 look okay- for a few bucks.
More positive sentiment coming up at monas mad market- once she settles down to gettin up in the morning instead of the night- as jet lag holds her tight! Gnite- yawn- see you at more respectable levels tomorrow- DOW 13000 and NASDAQ 2550- at least. S&P had a long run down from 1490 to 1410- well- cant see nothin but some recovery. Whew.
Apologies for the erratic blogs- now will be more accurate and regular. Happy New Year, all!
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