Friday, January 25, 2008

STOCKS HAVE SEEN THE WORST...

Huge selloff on Monday- looks like its way behind us. Cant see that in the rear view mirror as we are on the expressway of a solid recovery in the markets. Buying on that huge crash made us good money. VLO from 49 to 56 in 2 days- I took half off the table. BID from 28 to 33- sold half my position and JWN from 29 to 36- sold all of JWN. Am stayin with VLO (refiners have been unduly crushed... like there s no business) -with a target price of 60. And BID looks like oversold and will still go higher.

BRCM- we are in this one at various levels- from 28 to 22.... They reported good earnings. It was tradin up to 25 this morning but has pulled back to the 23.50 area- I think the worst is in this stock and when the company has reported good earnings- I am a buyer of more. MSFT and IBM have reported great numbers and once people realize these companies are still upbeat the fears of recession takin em down will die.

AKAM was a good trade from 26 to 31- I think it goes higher. Some of these stocks in good growing sectors have been pulled down needlessly due to fear. Keep the emotion out and pull the trigger. I have a target of 40 on this one- but will take some off at 33 if we get it.

I think if we stop being too emotional, we can get it right. Just watch the prices- objectively- stock gets hammered too much with no bad news- if the fundamentals are intact, there we have an opportunity to make money. IT is easy once you identify a trading range- for each stock that we are looking at. Being in and out of JWN for instance between 30 and 35- three times in a row -made us good money. Same with FRE- from 30 to 35- we made good money. Watch out for a dip below the trading range and then wait for the stock to settle down and go with the new trading range. In case of FRE- it dipped below 30 last month and then it crashed to 25 before recovering. So having a stop loss below the lower end of the trading range makes sense.

One stock that has done well for us= DRYS- we got in at 50 last week. ITs 60 and I still think its a buy. The Baltic Dry index has been coming down rather ferociously- amid the fear of slowdowns and recessions- but one has to recognize that its overdone and pick up the stocks that fell with it. We are in DRYS at 50 and PRGN at 14. DRYS is at 60 today and PRGN at 16... I think we will make more bucks if we hold on some more.

Next week the fed meets and will cut- how much is tough to say. I will take 25 basis. No cut after an emergency cut- will disappoint the markets. And looks like the Fed does not want to do that.

Retail and finance can be good plays as the momentum is just building. I like JNY (Jones Apparel) at 15.2 and ANN (Ann Taylor) at 21.5- these are trading like no one will ever buy their apparel no more. A speculative play I like is believe it or not- a solar play. YGE is at 24- in the volatile market this week its ran down all the way from 35 to 21. At 24 I am a nibbler. Target at least 30 in a day or two. TSO, a refiner hard hit may be a good idea too at 40. Too many stock ideas bodes a buyer beware- but I think its time to be in and not out of the market. Hold some stock and hold some cash at all times- the cash can be put to lucrative use on days such as Monday when you can get 10-12 per cent moves in a day.

The worst is over, one would think with the remarkable move on the upside - up 800 points from the lows already. Soon they will tell us how low we are from the highs. I will say this- when you hear it cant go down anymore- remember that it can and it takes the money down with it.

So buy only on dips and I will stay with the beaten down stocks that look like emerging from the quicksand that pulled em down. Financials and retail look good for steady upward moves. Morgan Stanley at 49 looks interesting. Anyone with me? Do give me a feedback - would love to know if I am making sense- and if you the reader could give me your version of how the market is doing. ITs only money and theres loads to be made at our madmarket blog right here.



No comments: