Wednesday, January 9, 2008

BUY or REPENT later...

Easy for me to say BUY all the time. OVERSOLD is one reason to buy. Recession coming up- finally more people acknowledging the prognosis- thats when the worst is in the stocks- give or take 500 points =OUCH. To my mind stocks are in a recession- already- 50-80 per cent down in financials, retail and housing. So thats another reason to buy now.
No alternative looks more attractive- the risk-reward is better in stocks. Would you rather take a 2-3 % in treasuries- or bank cds that convert into negative value if you figure inflation. CASH is dead if not put into stocks- a trading opportunity and a long term horizon if we tread lower- is here. Nibble if you havent already bought - if you are fully invested hold on and do not look at the daily gyrations because that may set off a panic selling. Thats the last action I would advocate- patience is rewarded.

We took a hit in financials and retail- Citigroup, Freddie Mac and the likes of Coach- but am a buyer of all three today - Citi at 26.5 and FRE at 25.25 -wow and Coach at 26.25 will be good trades while I hold onto the earlier positions for a longer term.

If we close in the green tonite we are off to a good start- its after all a lot to do with sentiment- between 3 and 4 pm we lost it all. Today we may rise instead and thats what I am hoping for. As the month progresses we get closer to the Fed meeting- a cut is imminent- 50 basis will set us into rally mode again.

I am adding some more positions in technology. SIRF, remember the chip-maker for GPS devices- is down all the way to 19- unbelievable price action on no news- this one had a good time from 17 to 30 and is down to 19 again. Global positioning is going global and just about picking up. Also innovative uses for gps may provide a surge for the chips.

GRMN is down big time down 10 bucks today on some analysts negative remarks. I would pull the trigger on GRMN too under $70 looks good- maybe just half my potential position sometime today and the rest if it takes another dive soon. The fears of pricing pressures are KNOWN and competition from NOKIA incorporating gps in its phones- is a KNOWN too- so this late downward reaction by the market on GRMNs price is a good opportunity.

If we do happen to collapse into the closing hour- that will be one of the last opportunities for some time so I would not put all my cash in right away. Maybe waiting and watching todays price action will bode well. Major down drift will give us a case of fools rushing out while we at monasmadmarket quietly dare to tread in and hold on for a day soon when all will be green.

Thanks for reading. Do interact- I would love to hear from readers- what they think is important to me as sentiment rules more than anything else.

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