So its hello again from mona - who has been away from the blog but not away from the markets mad movements. Before we get tricked into thinking this time its for real... and adapt a buy and hold policy.... I would shout `beware'...! In tune with our trading strategy... its sell on the rips and this week after a brief breakout there will be dips to follow and take advantage of. So if you have been a buyer of stocks... lighten up before your target prices show up... ! As the DOW reaches 13200... and the S&P 1450... I whisper SELL SELL SELL! And then wait and watch for panic and blood on the street again- it is inevitable- as a subprime credit crisis as HUGE as the one U.S. witnessed will not die overnight... there will be more write downs and bankruptcies.... and every time there will be a sell -off - ... but the only difference is the money on the sidelines has started working and so we can expect rallies to follow the sell offs. To buy on the sell off and sell on the rally will make your money more money- than holding on can.
About my precious picks- the last blog I notice mentioned buying DRYS at 59! That was the one stock worth holding on till today at least if not for longer. Earnings were out this evening and they handily beat estimates. ITs trading at 108 after hours after briefly touching 116 during the day. I am a seller tonite or tomorrow. Anything above 100 is a great move by all means -a double in less than 2 months. Thank you.
Other picks- today was a good day to sell some of the technology names- BRCM and INTC have had good runs. SNDK warned and so that will ruin the mood though most stocks look like good holds... a better day may give better prices. Raising cash is a good idea at this juncture.
While I was away I picked a few outtacountry stocks- CX (Brazil- construction story though it has global exposure)at 28 and NOK (no need to introduce this one) also at 28- its been badly beaten for no real reason cept that the competition is making too much noise on wall street- namely- RIMM and AAPL etc. I also liked TRN at 30 and SGR at 50 and bought them a few weeks ago. TRN is a railroad play- with paws in the `wind' energy sector. Am holding on for some more weeks- as these have broken out. TRN is at 37 and change and SGR will sell in the mid 60s if it reaches out some time this week.
Last but not the least the solar names have made us some mad money. YGE bottomed at 15 and and STP at 28 and SPWR at 55 -these were great picks as they bottomed... though thats the toughest time to buy em.
I am looking back at my blog and am reinforcing the theory that fear is the last thing that works in this volatile market. If we keep the emotions and the `what-if' doomsday predictions out and watch and wait patiently for the panic days we can accumulate great bargains in the market and then hold on for great gains.
Buyer beware but the worst seems to be over.
Picks today- I am lookin at some stocks that seem to have hit the bottom but have not really rallied- those are safer bets than the ones that have already made their moves. BID (Sothebys) at 27 looks like a steal- ready to rally- the bull on this one seems to be just getting its right foot a-tither... watch out... he sees red. My target price is 35.
And a gold stock won't harm while gold is still at 900... so I am picking ABX at 40.
Lastly can not let OIL get away without a word. I thought it would peak around 115- and speculation would take it upto 120 or so- was wrong. But I am a buyer of an ultrashort ETF called DUG- at 26.5 today... has fallen from heights of 58- well its been trading around mid 30s when oil was at 100. So am thinkin if oil does roll over before it ascends again this will give us a good trade. Target selling price will be when oil comes down to 110- wherever DUG trades at that time- say, 33 or so. If oil does not roll over we have to hedge our bet. So am buying some CHK (a natural gas play with the $OLID backing of the CEO who has purchased millions of shares in the last year)- will buy around 56 if I get them. Solar stocks are also a hedge against the ultra short oil play.
Meanwhile am waiting for SOLARFUN earnings tonite that decides the fate of the solar sentiment for this week. Its run up from 17 to 25 already- and looks like ready to run up to 30 if all goes well. Am not into this one but it may help nudge my solar stocks- YGE and STP ahead. Am in at 19 and 38... and holding onto solid gains bravely but will sell soon.
Welcome back to monasmadmarket where we watch, we wait and then we win and we keep fear and greed outta here. So friends, sell the winners- as some one dear to me suggested- sell half the position at least so that you dont lose it all when the prices start stumbling...
Yalahoo... SOLAhoo...till tomorrow...
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