Wednesday, January 23, 2008

BOTTOM is near

Yesterdays market action was comforting. Off 100+ on the DOW- not bad after the almost 500 point loss at the open. Global markets -Japan and Hong Kong and India were outstanding- 5-7 per cent increases across the board. But European markets slumped at the close as the ECB is still reluctant and uncertain- about lowering rates. Well, thats having an effect today and we have a panic selling again -down to 11775- far from 13000- and 14000 looks too good to be true.

Another catalyst is AAPLE that reported earnings that were more or less in line- a bit below street whispers- and the stock got hammered -down 25points to 130. I was wondering what would be a good entry point to buy Apple- 125 was what I was thinking. I cant believe we are almost there- and now I wonder if I do want to buy this one. Why not buy the cheaper stuff- a SNDK (25) or AKAM (26)- they make get cheaper as the market has no clue how much is enough on the downside. But these are good trades and longer term will be winners. Recessions are painful but they go away as action is taken to ease conditions and sentiments.

Be that as it may, the good part of todays story is that financials and retails seem to have put in a near term bottom. We sold Coach at 30 today- merely got my order filled as thats the high for the day so far. From 25 to 30 was fast. The next leg from 30 to 35 will come too but I dont have the patience. Thats for long term investors. I am buying BID (Sothebys) that has fallen below $30 - (28) believe it or not and no one has noticed. We got one more good round in Freddie Mac. From 27 to 31.5 - is good for me for the time being. FRE should break out to 40 sooner or later but I would wait for their earnings release before I am in it for good.

I have not dabbled in energy- but Valero at 49 looks do-able- so am nibbling some today.We have to capture these opportunities and buy the beaten up stocks as we get closer to a bottom.

Next week the fed meet and will cut again as is expected and the markets will give us some decent moves on the upside- says my crystal ball. I am certainly hoping the market closes on a better note- though at this point we are seein grief- ! Or we have another global slump and then we re-test todays lows tomorrow, blah blah...blah.

Safe stocks that seem to have little downside may be a place to go- INTC at 18.50 or AA at 27 or even a retail stock that has not surged alongwith the others- say ANN at 20! Those are new picks- good luck and stay in the game. It does not get more volatile than this.

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