Wednesday, October 15, 2008

BUY ON DIPS

Needless to say we have had a MAD market and unbelievable volatility. VIX that scared us when it was in its high 30s hovers in the 60s and actually hit an all time high of 75+ in the notorious week when the markets CRASHED last week.

500 point moves are every day attempts to confuse the players. I would say this- today dow down to 8750 looks like a buying on a dip theory. My picks are QLD (ETF for Technology) and UYM (ETF for Materials) - trading at 33 and 22 respectively. These will jump furiously when the economy starts to settle down and confidence starts trickling in...

Commodity stocks and energy have been CRUSHED and ANNIHILATED due to hedge fund selling. If the world does not come to an end, I am a buyer of some of these stocks - FCX at 34 and NUE under 30 and maybe a natural gas stock- like CHK at 16 seem cheap.

Cash is king in times such as these to take the chance to get into good solid companies with great franchises that have great balance sheets - every thing got cheaper but the survivors will make money for themselves and for you. Companies like NIKE or COKE to name two.

The dry good sector got wiped out assuming that no goods will ever move again. Remember DRYS that we traded between 50 and 120. DRYS got as low as 16 last week- trading at unheard of P/E ratios of 2 and 3 etc. Its at 20 today- wow. Nibbling for the long term may not be a bad idea. Home builders are down but not at new lows which is encouraging- maybe TOLL at 18.50 will give a good return if held for a few months- as the housing sector emerges finally after all the bailout help that comes along the way.

As the markets digest the 2500 drop in a matter of days and 1500 point recovery very quickly- for those who have cash this is a good market to buy only when there is a 500 point drop and sell when the triple digit rallies comee by- inevitably so.

Confusion becomes a weapon of stock destruction and I hope that we can find catalysts for confidence. There is no better panacea than CONFIDENCE and SENTIMENT - The media needs to bring the die-hard-OPTIMISTS on board with megaphones.... unless they all died with the catastrophe that unfolded on wall street last week.

I remain the watcher - the elephant- trading less but hoping that the world realizes that we have to wrap up our mistakes and not make any more- to open our eyes and to give each other hope that all is not dead.

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