Friday, August 31, 2007

VOILA VOILAHOOO....

As I spoke yesterday that we would witness triple digit green... today once the FED spoke. Exactly right. FED speak was a major event for wall street. FED spoke. He said he will act when the economy needs it. He said he will not bail out the bad guys... He is watching closely. He already did his part. The worst is over to my mind until a new crisis shows up.

We are on our way to higher highs on all indices ...DOW, S&P and NASDAQ... Oh but I sense a bit of a pause. Hmmmm... Now, they are waiting for the `PRESIDENT speak'... He speaks on Sub prime Reform Plan. The President will only speak positive. So after that is done the market will confirm GREEN.

I like to smile as The INDIAN ADRS are higher today ... and I will wait for next week to sell my positions in IBN, TTM and INFY.

GRMN broke out ... up to 105 and near the 52 week high which means it can go much higher. Thank you I said to my son who reminded me the other day when we got lost that the GPS device maker is a good stock.
Its a no-brainer GRMN is doing phenomenonally well. For those of you who have been aware of this stock since it was trading in the 30s and 40s you may think it makes no sense to buy now. I would think the same of APPLE... watched it in the teens... and 20s... for long -in the 30s thought how much higher can it go.BUT the IPOD and business across the board for APPLE skyrocketed its earnings and revenues... the stock went up to 100 split and is back over 138 now... so watching does not help. Regret certainly does not. I say the same for GRMN. IF the story for GPS devices looks good for the next couple of years and if I can stomach volatility...I buy it right now. My humble opinion is it goes to 120... splits 2 for 1 and starts over again ...

Vixx (volatility) is behaving itself... FED is ready to act when needed...the panic is over... its smooth sailing till Sep 18 when the Fed cuts rates or decides not to... so my prediction is we go finally to my target of DOW 13600... and NASDAQ 2630... S&P 1500 + ...VOILA VOILAHOO...

Thursday, August 30, 2007

GREEEN

My son goes back to school soon. I thought a spelling test would be nice. Spell APPLE I said. He said A.A.P.L. Great. Spell TARGET I said, He said T.G.T. Wonderful ! My sister overheard and said Hey that's not right. OOPS. Okay forget the spell test, lets do math. Whats 40 times 100. He said 4000! What does that much money buy, I asked him. He said 100 shares of TSL. WAY TO GO... boy! Okay lets brush up those spellings again. repeat after me A.P.P.L.E ........OK Mamma.

Green and red is the color I see today for the rest of the day. But tomorrow we begin double digit green again...and there will be no turning back till 13600... in monas humble mind. We hit a short term bottom near 13000 on the DOW this monday. The consumer confidence (lack of it) helped. Down 250 one day, UP 250 the next day, spells TRADING opportunity like NEVER BEFORE. I reiterate this is a super duper traders market.

Why greeen tomorrow because Fed speaks- and if the rally paused today its just to applause the Fed tomorrow. The Fed has been friendly to say the least. It decided to inject liquidity into the system when it was direly needed. IT ACTED- that was important. For the sentiment of the market as well as for releasing some crunch in the credit markets. I think what he says tomorrow will be positive. And we continue green tomorrow. More in detail on the Fed ... later...

AKAM, BRCM, GRMN, are all up since I spake of them. TSL - my solar speculative no-guts-no-glory pick is up to 45 again. It helped to buy at 40 this week. I will be thrilled when it touches 50 again. Will not sell below that. Touche.

I see some eyeballs...on my blog. Wonder why they dont scroll down and just COMMENT. I would love some interaction if you may. Meanwhile this is Mona signing off with a promise to be here tomorrow... Remember money is important but not as important as you.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

WHY this volatility

Triple digit rally on the DOW today, why everyone asks. Yesterday it was worth asking triple digit slide on the DOW, why? There was no answer for yesterdays decline. But the answer to todays rally is yesterday's meaningless decline. I am happy to be able to eliminate fear even when it gets scary and giddy out there. There is nothing to fear. I can make a case for a great rally into year end. Stay tuned...
The elephant made a great move yesterday.... by pulling the trigger... on the BUY gun. When we are ready to sell... we shall post it, shall we not?

OIL REBOUNDS

"Hello" I said as I picked the phone sluggishly this morning.
"Your money or your life? " said the caller.
"You could have both..." I said.
"What?" he was baffled.
"Whats one without the other... " I laughed and hung up. Gosh its 10.28... thanks for the call I muttered as I had to check the oil inventory numbers for my blog.

Early morning 10.28 in NY. the weather is warm still on August 29... Warmth is something we bask in as winters are brrrrr.... and bitter.
Well, the CNBC show is on and they are just reporting... the oil and natural gas inventory numbers are BULLISH... for the price of oil and natural gas and so for the oil and nat gas stocks obviously. NBR (29.5) and PTEN (20.9) are my picks. Theres no way but up from here.

The market is behaving well. I say that when I am able to predict the moves. Bear with me, ordinarily 250 point down days are not considered good behaviour. But yesterdays crash was way overdone with no basis at all. To make investors nervous it may do this all week.

I was explaining to my son how wall street is also quite like an amusement park. We have slides and see-saws as the prices slide and see-saw and sometimes we have roller coaster rides... wheeeee up and up and up.... and down and down and down.... making the players giddy. He loved that analogy.

To my mind, there is no reason except technical for the DOW to slide below 13000. The sentiment next time will be positive, I mean the August blues will be wiped out of our minds by then, so whats to fear.
Sub-prime is history.... there still will be lay offs... and shut downs of mortgage units in big and small banks... thats GOOD news... punish the sinners... And salvage the winners...whatever.

Meanwhile until the Fed returns with a rate cut on September 18 (he'd better) we certainly will see see-saw movements... between 13000 and 13400.
Yesterday, the elephant that was watching ran and pulled the trigger for a BUY GRMN at 96, BRCM at 32.25 and TTM at 15.8! All for a trade and they are all good long term plays as well. And one speculative BUY TSL at 40. No guts no glory. Its a solar play. This ones had a ride from 55 to 39 to a whoooopy doooopy 73 when the solar stock just soared to the sun.... that was atrocious (will tell you some day why) .... and then from 73 to 39 again. THATS the time the elephant decided to finally buy for the next roller coaster.... The earnings were out last week and they were good... gross margins coming down but that is discounted. (Discounted means that the market already knows this... so the price will not move down further based on that information no more) The target price to sell is in the range of 50-55 somtime soon. I am sane and not greedy. So there!

Theres always somethin to say about the market.... and I shall say it each day... insights from mona are your keepsakes. When someone calls you or taps you with a gun and asks you " YOUR MONEY OR YOUR LIFE" remember to save your life first... money you can always make at leisure.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE... I told ya so...

In my very first post I warned you. Hey, consumer, you dare lose that `confidence' the market depends on you. Case in point, todays market action. Down 150 on the DOW just when we were happily soaring toward the mid 13000 level... . Who is to blame. Did anything change? Well, your confidence dropped to 105 from 113 whatever. They take a survey of 5000 some households and then put out this number that speaks for the entire US family. Beats me sometimes. I have a suggestion. They should make sure these consumers are also consumers of stocks. If they be heavily invested, they will certainly keep up the confidence to prevent such downturns like todays market action. DOWN 156 as we speak to 13165 or so...!

To my mind this is another trading opportunity. I love BRCM at 32.30 and EBAY at 33.2. INFY at 45 and TTM at 16.

I spoke of TTM the other day- Tata Motors at 16 today is a good trade as well as a long term investment. Its an Indian car maker- thats aiming for the Ford's jaguar brand... for those who dont know TATAs are one of the oldest business houses in India founded in 1945. It has a price/sales ratio of less than 1, a forward P.E ratio of 10.2 or so... which fits my parameters for BUY- Its based in INDIA- consumer confidence in USA should not make the stock move down 30 cents - ! Its near its 52 week low- what else, lets see, the moving averages are around 17.4, 50-day, 200-day et al. so once it moves above those it has the potential to take leave of the teens... end of this year or as soon as the market messes settle down...

Todays worst case scenario DOW will be down 220 at some point- 13100 and then jump up as bargain hunters save the day. If we close at the worst levels of the day, we drift lower tomorrow till we are about 13000... and this week we punch the fear out, the weakness out and every news- sub prime, consumer confidence, housing data, all is discounted... and next week after labor day, market is ready for some climbing action again. Will the Fed cut rates in September... 100% expectations that it will. If it does not we re test 12845...and up from there... Eventually up, thats what corrections are made of. Pain, pain and more pain. Till you decide to throw in the towel... and go all cash. Thats when corrections are over and the market steadily goes up again... but for it to happen some of us have to go all cash. The elephant then stops watching and `pulls the so-called trigger' BUY BUY BUY...
When my son asks me to buy BASKIN ROBINS stock I know he is on the money. He knows where the consumers' money is going! He also recommends GARMIN as it shows us the way when we are lost. Well, will he be laughing all the way to the bank, one day? I say all power to him and the sub-10 year olds who should be learning about money already.
Stay tuned...

Monday, August 27, 2007

NO MADNESS TODAY

My mom called me from overseas. Asked me how the VIXX was (thats the index that measures volatility in the market) before she asked me how I was. Ha. I told her I am fine and had started a blog and I had promised myself to write a post in my blog every week day. She thought that was a good way of keeping in touch with the market but was afraid I would not find time to keep in touch with her, then?

I see from last week, that one of my picks JOYG ran up 4 bucks and also IBN, the Indian finance play, ran up 3 bucks. Not bad. The others are mostly where they were but are showing signs of stirring. Just a reinforcement- BRCM-32.7- screaming buy, EBAY-33.7 screaming from the bottom of my vocal chords...BUY, PTEN-21.25 aint nothin wrong with this one cept for the single-digit P-E ratio- what? TSL is a speculative buy- at 40.50 today its just getting ready for the climb.

Theres no madness today. Just a little bit of a reaction to the housing numbers- one should stop looking at them- all is discounted as far as housing numbers goes, I would say. The recession in housing is old ... it did not take the economy into one, is commendable. For now, I am in the bullish camp, though watching from an elephants viewpoint. CALM and collected... until I have to run...
Stay tuned... for more... monas market insights will make you smile.

Friday, August 24, 2007

INDIA

They say buy domestic over international. I say buy emerging markets that have already emerged. My favorite Asian tiger... INDIA. For today I say buy TTM- Tata Motors -its trading at great value... ($16)and ready to break out of the mid teens into the 20s... You heard it here first. Who says this is a stock picking blog. But in these markets you could trust anyone... soon I will have an archive and my record will say it all. Watching is the name of the game but sometimes you watch enough and just pull the trigger as Jim would say- to go ahead and BUY. Other Indian ADRs that are strong fundamental companies - INFY ($45.75) and IBN ($41.25)!

They say buy value over growth and recession proof the portfolio. Global markets have not taken down growth estimates yet... so is recession hovering the globe? Who's to tell? Oil is value says one suited gentleman on CNBC... and buy VALERO. I agree but I think NBR is `value'.
On the other hand, Oil is certainly and has been a growth story. -so you got to be invested in an Oil stock whether you like growth or value. Maybe HAL is value- Cramers favorite one but the market does not like that one. So to buy or not is your decision. As the market continues to baffle you, stick to what you know. I know NBR is low risk- flirting with its 52-week low- made its double bottoms etc. technically- no reason why it had to crash all the way from high 30s to high 20s. Thats what makes me BUY NBR. Dont know what will make you buy it, though.
What if growth is slowing down... do you still buy growth. I guess then you are buying `slow growth'. OH yes and thats when real growth stories become value stories. Reiterating, BRCM, EBAY and AKAM- my personal value picks. Ta Ta- dont forget TATA motors. TTM is the way to go... read the story of today and you will know why TTM is an international stock thats just too cheap.
Good luck. Yesterday around noon, in my blog I predicted the market will end on the flat line- NOT up, NOT down. Today Mona's intuitive eye sees green across the board, double digit on the DOW.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I am an elephant... will tell you why someday... only want to remind you that an elephant when it needs to can run faster than bulls and bears...and will be first to run when its afraid of global gloom. For now the elephant is calm and just watching -as markets are a-stablizing.
Theres always somethin funny goin on... in the market- and I need to bring it to you. To make light of something as serious as money takes courage and I have it.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

YAWN...

The bull and the bear were playing TUG OF WAR... and we shall see who won. Maybe no one and the DOW ends on the flat line. Which is significant - my thinking is if the bears could not push it to volatile lows and there was no panic, the next move will be up - ! No harm in thinking that way.
TSL - you may wonder what happened to it. I said I was watching it. And had a intuitive buy on it. Earnings came out well and good. Margins will be under pressure was not new news. Was it sliced into half- no it survived a $5 pull back. Pull the trigger and buy for a great speculative move up from 41 to 50... Ha. No risk no reward so you got to watch the downside- !
I still like PTEN- the natural gas company that no one is buying as its hovering around its 52 week low. 21 is lovely for a good turnaround to 25 before the next hurricane shows it eye.
I am still watching this market with a keen eye. I stopped trading. I have 2 parts cash and 2 parts invested. All cash is not king in such testy times. You never want to miss the rallies that come after such fertile movements on the downside. I will sell the 2 parts invested when there is a confirmed solid triple digit rally- DOW 13600 or something which will happen before September ends. And if that aint happening I still have two parts cash to plunge into the market if it does dare visit the sub-13000 points on the DOW! Some knowledgeable on CNBC said you will get one more pull back to 12845 or some such number on the dow before it resumes the RALLY. So the bears freaked out and started hammering without much luck. Maybe the market has its eyes on 14400 - being the year end target for some. How on earth do they get these numbers. Lets wait and watch...and we get the answer.
To cut or not to cut is the daily million dollar question. Is a rate cut priced in already is the multi-million dollar question. YAWN...

MADMONEYMARKETS

Me, Mona, a die-hard stock market trader... with a urgent need to share her viewpoint. You, who humor me by paying attention to what I write, will love this interaction.



We as investors, traders, observers, laymen/women, affect the market to an unbelievable degree....because the stock market is one big mad sentimental juggernaut. Consumer confidence... thats you and me, for one... dare get pessimistic about the economy....you dare stop spending... the market depends on you. You, a consumer of things and some of you, a consumer of stocks. If you are heavily invested, God's sake do not stop consuming, for fear that the stock crashes may consume you.


Today it was a triple digit move upward for the DOW and tomorrow I dare say there will be a triple digit move upward again... only we will not have to wait for the last hour... we will get it off the start... Easy for me to say, as no one's life depends on what I write. At least not yet, after all I am not Jim Cramer, the chosen one....! (chosen... for what... I shall elaborate in one of my blog posts to follow) A few stocks which got battered alongwith the financials and were hesitating to rise will rise ... I have on my personal list (NO one has access to it) - lets see, JOYG..., INFY ..., BRCM..., EBAY....(no doubt Cramer loves this one too), they will rise. Theres a solar stock I am watching... (I WILL WATCH SOLAR STOCKS ALL MY LIFE>>> I will tell you why in the posts to follow... as its too sad for me to tell now) I was watching with one eye...TSL.... today at 45. Earnings will be out tomorrow. IF the earnings are good it will be up 10 bucks tomorrow, if not, it will be sliced in half... so no use buying... CATCH 22. Just watching. though... On my intuitive radar all signals say BUY. Watching the market has its advantages too. You dont lose anything. You can laugh about it when the stock tanks and you did not buy. And you can cry if the stock goes up and you did not buy. Harmless. I am learning to watch. And you will too....if you pay attention to what I write, you will learn much more... (laughing, for instance)



I intend to share with you my view of what the animals in the market (bulls, bears and some new ones I have discovered...) did to us... and having been a trader all my sane life, I will also spell out what my mad mona intuitive signals say about stock picks ... you will be amazed how in sync we can be if we eliminate the fear.



Regardless of how the stock market treated you today, I will like to remind you that there will always be humor in the market- and I promise to find it for you... here at my die-hard mad money market psyche ...for you. Money is not important. You are. So lighten up.