Friday, September 7, 2007

OOUCH!

No jobs added to the economy last month- an actual decline of 4000 odd jobs was reported. How on earth can you expect the market to rally, right? I still think the market will turnaround before the close. When the worst numbers come out we are already in glooms and dooms - mona thinks we are already witnessing a recession- as expertly demonstrated in the housing market- mostly the housing stock prices that have been in a BIG bear market for some time now. The rest of the market will be okay- unless the stock market does not get what it wants- a rate cut- swooning and crashing markets then will cause everyone to pause- CEOS included- as the market- seeks new lows. I pray for sanity- to prevail - FED to cut- solid growth or not- if he cuts- the market recovers- ITs quite insane isnt it ? To think the stock market moves can tip the economy into a recession. And the FED easing can actually save the market and the economy...

The conflict - good retail report yesterday- CSCO CEO talking of `good' economy ahead... and these HORRIBLE job numbers has to be digested in the correct perspective. Government jobs -local education et al... was a large part of the decline... makes me happier?

Fed cutting the rates some will make me happier I must say- to calm the sentiment. and fear about such data. So what if the economy is solid. Lets see a 25 basis cut on September 18 and we can tackle the trades more confidently.

Stay tuned. DOW down 160... NASDAQ down 37 and S&P down 17.

Am happy with the cash I raised selling my winners. Was it not for such a day? Am buying -nibbling some stocks already. AMGN at 51. as a defensive play and one thats bottomed in my mind, CSCO at 31 looks good and after the CEO endorses good going- have to respect that, and a mining co. TCK- its fundamentals and sector looks good to me- its at 41. A low priced gold stock pulling back sharply for no reason- AUY- am buying at 11.5 ...! No risk, no reward.

DOW retests 13000? Maybe today itself... but a turnaround in sentiment at the end of the day will bode well for next week. Or else... we re-assess over the weekend. Not the end of the world... yet. SO we can still smile.

Am calling for a serious turnaround this evening... if not this will be the first bad call on my part- and I promise to make it up next week.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Hi Mona,

I am not sure about AMGN, it's a 0% growth stock, dead money for 6 months, max 55, unless they have a magic drug in the pipeline. I guess it's better to be in Cash than go defensive with AMGN.

I expect the market to go down further, create panic and force the Fed for a rate cut. So, the turnaround you are expecting may not happen this afternoon-:)

mona'smadmoney-psyche said...

Hi Raghav,
Thanks for your meaningful comments. I was dead wrong about the turnaround. Yes, maybe until September 18 we will experience turmoil. But a 250 point down day is a good opportunity for trading. I fear we will retest the sub 12800 level - but the recovery will be furious- so I am a buyer. Bought some LEH and NEM...

AMGN may be a bit dead- but the downside risk is little... in my opinion. But I like your suggestion of being in cash than go defensive with AMGN. Cash can be put to work next week- !

See you later :) Appreciate your time and comment.