Two thumbs down to me- I expected a turnaround... at the end of the day, Friday. But the markets swoooned all the way till the closing bell. Down 250+on the Dow... NASDAQ down 45... S&P down 25.
Maybe, I am thinking way too much ahead of the herd- who is still analyzing the meaning of - 4000 jobs added- does that spell recession. I cant say it enough... housing sector is in recession, has been since more than a year. The rest of the economy is not in a recession. ONE solitary data point does not lead us to or indicate recession. It is indicating a slow down no doubt. Again watch the sentiment... if the economy had added 10000 jobs... we would not be this worried. See, its the minus sign before the 4000... thats spelling recession. Insane.
I see this as a god send- a minus sign before the 4000... odd jobs means the economy lost jobs. And godsend because maybe its the data point that will nudge the fed to move. Our FED who art in denial... BERNANKE be thy name... give us this day our rate cut... and make us all winners. FED cuts rates. Markets stop the madness. And then may the actual earnings be good enough for us to steadily rise. Global confidence is restored and all is well that ends well. Sometimes sentiments- and expectations rule the market... most times, I would say. And Bernanke has to realize it- instead of being stubborn and unmoved. BOO.
I have an indicator myself. A trip to two different malls on a weekend- no parking! The consumer is out there in the malls, buying. What recession? Jobs gained or lost did not make a difference, did it? The consumer who is the king ...is still out there buying.
Besides, beware the job numbers revision next month- it could go either way- who is to tell? Meaningless moves without which how would we traders make the calls. I did warn you in my first post- the market is all about sentiment- and confidence. Dont lose that or you make the markets lose it.
In our trading pattern- we did well. Selling BRCM and TSL helped... a lot. AM ready to buy again... if BRCM goes to 33 and TSL to 40... make the money in the same stocks... ! AM holding onto MNST and AMGN- as they are done going down. I would like to short AMZN and NILE- though shorting is dangerous... both above 80 have jumped ahead of fair valuations.
To my mind worst case scenario there may be a 2 consecutive day slide ... if the DOW goes below 13000... re-testing the lows would be consolidating ...and reassuring... so the technical guys get what they want before they allow the rally to commence again. Whats more, we get a confirmation that the correction and pain is over. So lets hope for a retesting of the lows... and watch ... until that happens... and start buying once more... when the rest are panicking and losing their nerve...lets BUY...BUY ... BUY...
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