END OF QUARTER... relief

Today is the last trading day of the third quarter. Window dressing was on this week. That means portfolio managers bought the winners and sold the losers, sort of, to look good on paper. SO by extension next week will be exact opposite as they buy the losers that have potential of becoming winners and sell the winners that have run up enough.

In our trade, I have been buying the losers all along- housing for instance. DHI we had a good trade of buying at 13.8 and getting out at 16.5. Guess what some more housing numbers dismal they must be, pushed the stock all the way to under 13 and we picked up some more. Its still 13 today but technically when the relief breeze for housing blows one of these days again when they start talkin of more Fed easing... we know the stock goes upto 16.5 again if not more. Low downside is my idea of safe investing. God willing the company should not go bankrupt until next year if at all. Ha.

SIRF turned back and rallied again. Lovely. 18.50 brings me 21.5 today. Who said buy and hold was good. I love the stock, the sector, the lack of momentum that affords it to be trading at a low valuation. This one is ready to break out- this time it will go to 25 and then head for 30. Too much attention goin to GRMN, making a 52 week high every day- 122.78 today and once SIRF gets noticed it will soar is my humble opinion.

Dow 14000 -seeing it on the radar- maybe if people wake up a bit aftr a lack luster start, it may happen today itself. Or next week surely. Monday 10.20 am says my crystal ball, DOW will be close to 14050. Who is to stop me from dreaming. But seriously, it does seem a bit dicey with earnings for the 3rd quarter coming up as well.

Technology is my sector pick for the next quarter. Energy seems to be at a peaky level. Oil near term tops at $85. And gold maybe stops at $750 though momentum can take it closer to $800 but not over that. But the money to be made in gold and energy is done for now is what I feel. With housing and finance in nervous mode, retail too dependent on the consumer, leaves technology safe and sound. The ones that have not rallied as much as the leaders will catch up so I would be in those. The leaders like AAPL, RIMM, GOOG are too high for my trading picks. If at all I may short them for they will fall harder if the market were to turn around and retreat. Would not be a bad idea to buy puts on the high fliers to hedge the longs.

Next week will be prepared to sell the winners and be in cash before the earnings start pouring out. At least sell half my positions and that will raise cash to buy the ones that get hammered too bad.

Lets cheer for the mad market, albeit, stellar and upbeat and near record levels... thats the spirit. VOILA....HALLA...HOO.

CSCO 35 and DOW 14000

I have a feeeling CSCO goes to 35 and DOW to 14000 on the same day. No one cares about feelings, I know, but thought an intuitive feeling on a stock and index breaking out should be part of my blog.
CSCO has been dull even after John Chambers, the CEO has been upbeat- but looks like ready to breakout ... hovering around 32.50... I am in at 30 so will hold on though tis been a slow ride.
DOW 14000 is guaranteed may I say so before the next Fed meeting in October. The sentiment is very bullish it appears. So be it.

Cant say enough about TSL. Was in on Monday at 51, remember the trading range would change to 50-60. Well got a chance to sell at 60 in 2 days. Thats sure fire profits. You hear it here quite often- and laugh to the bank if you play it correctly. YEARS of trading teaches you to know the numbers - its surreal.

ETFC stopped falling. ITs 12 still. AM waiting for a move on the upside after being hammered. CRAMER said it was probably good to get in at this level so I am happy.

OVTI broke out - its heading to 28 in my humble opinion. Have spake about it earlier when it was 19- it was a no-brainer. GREAT earnings and upward guidance and no resistance over 22... so it had to go much higher. Am holding on.

Was wondering what to buy with the TSL money. Lets see, I have two names. AMDOCS, ticker symbol DOX at 35 and Corning GLW at 24 look to be safe plays for the ongoing rally.

Overall any pullback will not be worrisome until earnings season begin. And I have a feeling markets will rally through this earnings quarter. UH OH, feeling again... but thats what markets move on. MY feelings and your feelings. Lets all feel good while the going is good. A BIG correction will obviously follow some time but am not seeing it on the radar yet. So keep the smile on people. Happy days are still on.

Until tomorrow... hasta la vista-ooo.

Its time to navigate to the bank

Its time to navigate our trading ship to the bank laughing all the way... guess what I am using. The NUVI from GRMN. I dared to break my word yesterday- of speaking about GRMN at 112 though I had promised to keep my mouth shut until it touched 115. But the crystal ball was right. It did touch 115 briefly yesterday and so honored my blog. No surprize it reached 120 today. Thats momentum and short covering and like I said yesterday the explosive moves begin. But I am not greedy and sold some at 120 and wait for a pullback to re-enter.

It more than made up for my short term loss in ETFC. E TRADE financial - I was a bit chasing the herd and buying at the wrong price- I did mention I am not familiar with this one. I admit I was wrong. Its down 2 bucks at 12. And I am thinking maybe 10 is the bottom. Sometimes better to be safe than sorry, its lowering its numbers so does not bode well for trading. AM watching this week,if it does not move back a bit higher I will take a loss and will move onto tougher pastures.
We have to learn to not get stuck into positions which have an issue and go below our cost- to take a loss and move onto better prospects is a good idea. ITs the toughest thing to do but you can do it if you keep the attachment and emotion out of the trade. YOU are not married to any stock. You got to sell and buy another with an admission of error.

Housing numbers were bad. And guess what housing stock which had recovered nicely last week after the FED meet are all down lower than ever. I am a buyer of DHI at 13 and TOL at 19.5. with a tremor in my trunk... but cant miss the rebound when housing woes are all said, done and done and cant possibly get worse. That rebound is bound to happen- some day. We have holding power so its okay to buy and watch and wait.

The markets are dull - not much movement. My guess is they are lookin to the earnings reports which are two weeks away... already. Uh oh bad time to be holding stocks. So we will re-assess and raise more cash to buy the ones that get punished unreasonably... the best opportunity to buy presents itself every quarter after earnings... for those that beat the estimates handily and still fall. Lookin for CSCO, YHOO, EBAY, BRCM, OVTI to continue upward... into the earnings but if they go much higher before earnings, will SELL and be comfortable with cash.

Thats all for today... keeping watch on the DOW- for a spring up to 14000 and over... to happen soon.. hope you all are with me on that...

SOLAR rally

Could not get more predictable. Solar momentum is back.
TSL crossed 50 on friday. Now the trading range is 50-60. Wont be surprized if TSL touches 55 today as shorts start scrambling to cover. AM in at 51.
Was not going to talk about GRMN until it reached 115- but am breaking my word. ITs 112 and I am beaming. GRMN took a nice pause in the 105 area. And theres no stopping it now. Its in the great growth GPS device sector- a leader and navigation devices are still not owned by one and all. It looks more to me like the beginning of an explosion.
I still am a believer of SIRF which is just beginning to come out of its slump. IT makes the chips that go into GRMN... Reached a 52 week low at 16 and change... and rushed up to 21 when an analyst gave a better view of it ... ITs 18.5 again... accumulating it is a good idea.

INFY= the Indian infotech play is sulking and has not participated in the relief rally. Still at 45 and change. The reason being the rupee appreciation not boding well for its earnings. With due respect to the valid reason, its a leader, its growing at a good pace and INDIA is back in formidable bull territory. I am pullin the trigger to BUY -downside is 42-43 but upside can be mid 50s at least toward the year end.

Its been all about picks. DOW 14000 is widely anticipated... should happen before the next FED meeting... in October and we take it from there. ITs a psychological number so its got to be reached... after such a great run from 12800 to 13800.... bulls should make it happen.

In and out - and cant go wrong.
Does not take much effort or time to just watch a bit and make a move. Mona is off again... will find some more stories for tomorrow. Meanwhile make the most of the madmarket moves and be alert and fearless... its only money.

WHEW... the relief at last

Was still sighing all day the relief thats written all over the markets.
Yesterday I took BID off the table. Recommended it at 42- hit 48 yesterday- 6 bucks per share in 2 days is good for me. The crystal ball is doing good for stock picking and I hope it continues.

Housing stocks rallied as Fed lowered rates. Bodes well as with lower rates mortgages will get cheaper. But we were ahead of the market so having bought DHI at 13.60 I thought it would be good to sell at 16.5 and raise cash.

Also gold rallied as anticipated. Its at 735 -looks strong. But a pull back can be expected. So am selling my AUY and NEM -we got in at 11 and 43...selling at 13 and 48...!

The DOW and S&P and NASDAQ rallied a bit too much the day of the rate cut. So, I expect some back and forth movement- best environment for trading again. But since the sentiment and perception of the economy is better now, BERNY on our side, dont expect triple digit moves any time soon. So I would watch individual stocks that are breaking out or see-sawing enought to get a trade.

I am watching TSL- the solar stock closely- nearing 50... its 49.5. If it goes over 50 I think the trading range changes- but will watch the move before I pull the trigger.

AKAM the streaming video player- which has been crushed beyond limits in my opinion is still struggling in the low 30s. With a little longer time horizon I am buying AKAM today at 30.9. Once it moves it will be furious.

Have never looked at ETFC- before- symbol for ETRADE financial- the online trading company looks good to me at 14 considering the market picks up and its valuation looks good to me with a forward P.E. under 10.

OVTI- is a semiconductor camera sensor maker- for phones... have menioned it before - looks like ready to break out if technology behaves itself. This one is cheap and the earnings are growing nicely with upside guidance by the company. Am watching it.

As the market digests the good news of the rate cut and before it figures out the good news came about as there was some bad news- (fear of recession) in the FED's mind.... we were in and out and have some cash now. Wait and watch .... stay tuned... for the next big move.

I told YA-RELIEF RALLY- FED BERNY IS MY FRIEND

AS you all know the FED cut rates by 50 basis points. AND boy, did the markets rally? ACROSS THE BOARD -stocks, commodities, bonds... all rallied. OVERSEAS will rally tonite. This is nirvana.
I AM A SELLER into the rally. Not that it does not continue. But best time to raise cash is now. Besides as the relief came all my targets are met on the dot- DOW 13600, NASDAQ 2530 and S&P 1500...
HOUSING and FINANCE stocks rallied- did I say we had touched the bottom. If only more bulls and bears heeded my advice. Never a bull or a bear will I be named- I am fine as the elephant who watches and acts cautiously. Sometimes all it does is raise its trunk and say VOILAHOO-A.
So long as I need a much deserved break after having said it all before it happened... Laughing all the way, counting the money we made in the trades will take all evening. So stay tuned for the next move.
I dare say it will still be up. Market and media will start talkin of new highs- so fast they forget the subprime fears and the R-word- yup, recession. Where'd that go?

GREENSPAN speaks... market tanks... HA

WHY on earth one wonders the FORMER (stressing on `former') Fed Chairman would get so much coverage a day before the current Fed meeting? To get the market shaken up a bit in case it was not already done doing that all of last month. No doubt the market is sulking and down... across the board as Greenspan speaks.

All I can say is what Berny says tomorrow will be more important and what he does will move the markets. The knee jerk reaction (as some would like to put it) will be a rally or a slump whatever the bears and bulls choose for it to be. But a relief rally is coming up this week is my prognosis. Once we wait so much for an event, such as the fed cut... when we get it we sigh a relief. THATS the relief rally.

Obviously if the Fed does not cut rates tomorrow- the markets will crash all over the world. AND if the underlying meaning of not cutting is that the economy is firing on strong cylinders... then one wonders why the markets would crash. TO the trader it will spell opportunity... again. Whats to lose?

SIRF took profits on friday at 20.5, believe it or not its below 19 again- its not a pull back - its profit taking. Whats the difference, if I sold at 20.5 I will buy at 19 with all my might. Thats what I did today.

MNST =33.4 and YHOO=24.7 are doing well. YHOO moves above 25 today is my humble intuitive prediction. I will hold on to both positions.
Whats the big deal - a .25 move up is not a big prediction. It is trust me, becasue 24.73 is its 50 day moving average- and getting above that and staying there helps the stock to move higher again. Thats a technical move- and helps to know some of that when trading.

New pick.... has to be VMW- the hot IPO of this year- ran upto 82 last week- and is down today on good news. Thats when I pull the trigger sometimes -down on good news- so am buying some at 74. A market swoon will take this down to 68... so will buy just half my target position today. This is from my speculative cash. The one that grew nicely in TSL ... trade. Talkin of TSL the solar stock I would move onto the next one- STP- its more stable and less volatile and fundamentals look good from a solar perspective.

Unfortunately Greenspan speaks all day- in bits and parts and the interview on CNBC will be broadcast at 9 pm so the sulking in the market continues in the world markets .... tonite and then tomorrow morning maybe we discount everything and get ready for the Real Fed- Bernarnke to ACT!

To cut or not to cut... is not the question in my mind. 25 basis points on my crystal ball I find.

Relief at last as we find new opportunities tomorrow and beyond. No time to pause. ACT and be alert. Keep some cash for a big market crash- if it aint happening we buy anyway- but without cash we cant do much... So my cash from LEH and AMGN is on the side for pullin the trigger tomorrow....

Wonderful isnt it- as you understand the ease of trading... and relax all the way to the bank...

LEH- Lehman brothers- a finance company...

Mona took a breather yesterday and watched the voilahooo on financials. LEH target of 60 met in just 2 days. While the analysts are scratching their heads we made money from 52 to 60.

Countdown begins to the FED meeting next week. 2 more trading days before its here. As the whole army of analysts and economists all over the world speculate about the rate cut and how much... in mona's world we watch the market and stock prices carefully and pull the trigger when its due. For instance we watched the voilahoo on financials already ahead of the meeting and ahead of the earnings next week. And my pick of LEH went up 8 bucks- not bad in 2 days. 52 to 60! Would I buy ahead of the earnings. No, being ahead of the market and in the money I sell and hold the cash. So being ahead - and not panicking - buying low helps to be in cash when we may need it. But for some reason maybe next week if the Fed and the earnings (financials) -cause a pullback- I would be ready to pull the trigger ...

Today I am buying BID. Just an instinct- SOTHEBYS is done going down. 42 is good for me. Its a play on the global economy still growing and the art market bubble not bursting yet. I hope some of my art lover friends are reading and adding some BID in their portfolios.

The market will be lackluster today. Retail numbers were okay today. Autos did very well... but we see red across the board. Must be the consumer sentiment... ha ha. The fears of housing and subprime causing a recession still loom. I do think the fears are overdone. Gear up for a rally though it may get weaker toward september end as earnings come into the picture.

For now am done trading. LEH and AMGN were good money makers- for the week. SIRF broke out. ITs the GPS device chip maker. We watched it touch 16 and turnaround. 20 today. Did not take long for the market to realize this ones got solid growth prospects. When they fear the competition I buy. In at 17 will sell half my position at 21 and then let the rest ride... high.

August was portfolio poisoning... September is digestion and healing. October will bring out the health in the market as year end and holiday season appears on the horizon. Its funny once you figure out everything money is easy on the market. And when its not doing okay, there is opportunity for it to get easy- just have to make those moves- in and out.
Listen and pay heed... to mona's crystal ball...scroll down the archive and theres nothing to fear in this market.

Tutorials coming up... stay tuned. And lets have a great weekend... all!

AMGN...

Watch and be patient. Absorb the action in the market. Conserve your wisdom. Align yourself with the sentiment of the market. THE trend is your friend... I strongly believe that. Don't go against the market trend and watch for the changes in trend. Act fast. And be alert. Theres loads of money to made here at monasmadmarket-!

AMGN got the title status for a reason. Three cheers for AMGN- a defensive play I wrote in my blog at 50-51. Its rallied to almost 56 already... I put in my order to sell at 56.5. just half my position. Feel funny to sell my defensive play- all at once. I think I will hold on to the other half of my position till 60 and from there let others make money on this one. There was news on AMGN that the FDA is not going to put new restrictions on anemia drugs... wont go into the details. SO far the news is good and for a battered and hammered stock the reaction can only be a rally. I am happy.

I dont believe in getting too defensive - not when every one is so cautious. The market moves too fast and you end up buying at much higher levels if you dont place your BUY orders when the stocks are cheap.
For instance I liked ebay at 33. If I waited for the market to get rid of its woes like some what 2-3 weeks after the first crash, I would get EBAY at 36.7 today... Though my target price for it is 40 its tough for me to buy it at 37 when I thought it was good at 33. To be able to separate the wheat from the chaff... can help to make the money grow. EBAY had no connection with the sub prime woes... still it got hammered with the general market. SO I screamed in my blog to BUY.

Frankly when everyone (the herd) starts to believe in the rally I get cautious... Its still not happening. But one of these days there will be that triple digit rally and boom boom every stock is flying high... Thats when I will say SELL for now. And watch again.

The rally continues today I think to decent green across the board. NASDAQ should hit 2630 before it decides to go higher or lower from there. Its at 2603 now. And the S & P is 25 points away from the voilahoo level of 1500. DOW is relaxed at 13300... getting no real direction today.

I sold some TSL at 49 yesterday- not waiting for 50- which did not happen- got to 49.99 and then all the way down to 48... That was close. That was the third round of a 40-50 back and forth ride. I think seriously that the next range will be 50-60. But will wait until the market takes it above 50 to pull the trigger once more.
I bought some SIRI at 3.15. It is a good buy prior to the merger approval with XMSR. Low risk- the business is not going away and with or without approval- SIRI is cheap I would say.
I think SNDK at 53 and AKAM at 30 are ready to show some green.... from here- INFY the Indian ADR is still trading around 47...for a while- INDIA is off the radar - these days- thats when its time to pull the trigger- when its paused. Long term looks good for emerging markets- there is no turning back. TTM (TATA Motors) 16 was good at 17 it is a winner and still has scope to run.
DHI is my housing sector pick at 13.6 today... makin new lows but once the dust settles ... no one dares to say it but the BOTTOM is here ...for housing. I can afford to say it as I am no CRAMER and no one is really listening.
On the short side... I am being bold again. AMAZON much as I like the company and the numbers- did it not go too far too fast- so am buying puts on AMAZON... that is an option to sell at 85. ITs at 88 and a high risk as if it breaks out above its 52-week high of 89... then 100 is not far away... I think it makes a double top at 89 and comes rushing down... Shorting is dangerous but buying puts will limit the risk.

Win some, lose some but keep watching. Opportunity missed is history. Look for the next one. Moving on is the name of the game.

RELIEF RALLY BEGINS...

Relief rally begins.
Wipe the sweat of the brow - as the DOW flirts close to 13000 but holds above it. I would say the upbeat guidance by INTEL helped to pause the collapse...and with the techs doing well we all turned around gracefully.
TSL is doing well for us. In at 42 day before yesterday- did not get 40 but 42 does not look bad as its 47 already today. IF there is a trade to be had its in the fast and furious movements in solar stocks. Catch a trading range in any of them and you are a winner. SPWR, FSLR, TSL, JASO are some of the solar stocks that have volatile moves -see saw... ing for us. Buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the higher end and dont be greedy.
Nibbling on some finance and housing (OUCH) may help - for a short term rebound. They have been oversold. LEH at 52 and DHI at 13.8 are good for a turnaround. A bit nervous on these picks but the downside is low. When the real relief rally comes once the FED cuts rates by 25 basis points (not a done deal yet... just my insight-)... financials and housing will recover... AND tech stocks will soar. Year end is notable for techs to rally including the online ones like EBAY. Have been screaming my vocal chords to buy EBAY-hope someone listened at 32- its 36 and heading for 40 without a doubt.
Once the market stabilizes I plan to do some serious blogging for newcomers... investors or traders. Theres a lot to learn about the market - making money is easy if you set your mind to be patient, set your gut to immune levels so it wont spill out on HORRIBLE days and set your brain to a discipline mode -to follow the basic rules...
The free writing that I do every day will not suffice for an education so pardon me if you dont understand the jargon.
But read on... monas mad market intuitive insights will amaze you and carry you through the troughs and tribulations... Trivializing money and making you a survivor is my goal and laughing all the way to bank or bankruptcy... is possible.
I could be calling for the rally to continue today- and we end green. Am quite sure we bottomed out.... but...
Hush... our friend the FED chairman BERNY (I like to call him) to make him less nerdy...is going to speak at 11.00 am... few minutes to go. If anything the market will head over up 200 points if he is friendly... or it could lose all its gains- and wont be surprized- in which case we BUY BUY BUY all over again. Easy, aint it?

INTEL (INTC)

Intel gained title status in my blog- its raised its numbers- Intel, the world's No. 1 semiconductor maker, raised its third-quarter revenue forecast and said global demand for computing products was stronger than expected. Well, well, well I referred to CSCO CEO, John Chambers... making a positive statement at the time of earnings, when no one paid attention, he repeated his optimism last week- now when a conservative man is urged to display his upbeat outlook- will we not listen?
I REST MY CASE. Retesting the lows is a waste of time. The RALLY should begin and big time... led by TECHNOLOGY.

I like SNDK at 52 and change...SIRF has started moving from 17- up 70 cents ...this morning... we are in from 17 and will hold on for longer term. -GOLD stocks should do well- with gold breaking out... AUY =11.8 and GG=26 and NEM =44 are my picks. MNST down below 33 is cheaper and I am a buyer for a good trade.

BUY ON DIPS- the reason for the market to be down if it decides to be- is just fear and technical- lack of bull power - wait and watch... but be in the market. I am also watching OVTI- maker of camera chip image sensors-(blew out earnings on AUG 31- and rallied a bit but is down to where it was before the earnings- 19... They spoke of strong demand- and raised guidance... so I am bullish on this one- trading at a low P.E. multiple of 13 or so which is insane.

So theme is BUY- for a HALLEVOILAHOO... tech rally - NASDAQ is ready to ralllly --- use the pauses and dips ... to buy. Thanks for reading. Do scroll down and comment... would love some interaction.

HEYY BERNNY>>Give us this day OUR rate cut....

Two thumbs down to me- I expected a turnaround... at the end of the day, Friday. But the markets swoooned all the way till the closing bell. Down 250+on the Dow... NASDAQ down 45... S&P down 25.

Maybe, I am thinking way too much ahead of the herd- who is still analyzing the meaning of - 4000 jobs added- does that spell recession. I cant say it enough... housing sector is in recession, has been since more than a year. The rest of the economy is not in a recession. ONE solitary data point does not lead us to or indicate recession. It is indicating a slow down no doubt. Again watch the sentiment... if the economy had added 10000 jobs... we would not be this worried. See, its the minus sign before the 4000... thats spelling recession. Insane.

I see this as a god send- a minus sign before the 4000... odd jobs means the economy lost jobs. And godsend because maybe its the data point that will nudge the fed to move. Our FED who art in denial... BERNANKE be thy name... give us this day our rate cut... and make us all winners. FED cuts rates. Markets stop the madness. And then may the actual earnings be good enough for us to steadily rise. Global confidence is restored and all is well that ends well. Sometimes sentiments- and expectations rule the market... most times, I would say. And Bernanke has to realize it- instead of being stubborn and unmoved. BOO.

I have an indicator myself. A trip to two different malls on a weekend- no parking! The consumer is out there in the malls, buying. What recession? Jobs gained or lost did not make a difference, did it? The consumer who is the king ...is still out there buying.

Besides, beware the job numbers revision next month- it could go either way- who is to tell? Meaningless moves without which how would we traders make the calls. I did warn you in my first post- the market is all about sentiment- and confidence. Dont lose that or you make the markets lose it.

In our trading pattern- we did well. Selling BRCM and TSL helped... a lot. AM ready to buy again... if BRCM goes to 33 and TSL to 40... make the money in the same stocks... ! AM holding onto MNST and AMGN- as they are done going down. I would like to short AMZN and NILE- though shorting is dangerous... both above 80 have jumped ahead of fair valuations.

To my mind worst case scenario there may be a 2 consecutive day slide ... if the DOW goes below 13000... re-testing the lows would be consolidating ...and reassuring... so the technical guys get what they want before they allow the rally to commence again. Whats more, we get a confirmation that the correction and pain is over. So lets hope for a retesting of the lows... and watch ... until that happens... and start buying once more... when the rest are panicking and losing their nerve...lets BUY...BUY ... BUY...

OOUCH!

No jobs added to the economy last month- an actual decline of 4000 odd jobs was reported. How on earth can you expect the market to rally, right? I still think the market will turnaround before the close. When the worst numbers come out we are already in glooms and dooms - mona thinks we are already witnessing a recession- as expertly demonstrated in the housing market- mostly the housing stock prices that have been in a BIG bear market for some time now. The rest of the market will be okay- unless the stock market does not get what it wants- a rate cut- swooning and crashing markets then will cause everyone to pause- CEOS included- as the market- seeks new lows. I pray for sanity- to prevail - FED to cut- solid growth or not- if he cuts- the market recovers- ITs quite insane isnt it ? To think the stock market moves can tip the economy into a recession. And the FED easing can actually save the market and the economy...

The conflict - good retail report yesterday- CSCO CEO talking of `good' economy ahead... and these HORRIBLE job numbers has to be digested in the correct perspective. Government jobs -local education et al... was a large part of the decline... makes me happier?

Fed cutting the rates some will make me happier I must say- to calm the sentiment. and fear about such data. So what if the economy is solid. Lets see a 25 basis cut on September 18 and we can tackle the trades more confidently.

Stay tuned. DOW down 160... NASDAQ down 37 and S&P down 17.

Am happy with the cash I raised selling my winners. Was it not for such a day? Am buying -nibbling some stocks already. AMGN at 51. as a defensive play and one thats bottomed in my mind, CSCO at 31 looks good and after the CEO endorses good going- have to respect that, and a mining co. TCK- its fundamentals and sector looks good to me- its at 41. A low priced gold stock pulling back sharply for no reason- AUY- am buying at 11.5 ...! No risk, no reward.

DOW retests 13000? Maybe today itself... but a turnaround in sentiment at the end of the day will bode well for next week. Or else... we re-assess over the weekend. Not the end of the world... yet. SO we can still smile.

Am calling for a serious turnaround this evening... if not this will be the first bad call on my part- and I promise to make it up next week.

CAR NAVIGATION DEVICE - get one I say.

Happy 52- week high! 1o8.78 -and I predict many more highs... as there is no resistance on the upside- so all who did not get in will buy now... and the short sellers will cover and buy back the shares they sold short - adding to the momentum. I am speakin of GRMN- the car navigation device maker. Will not talk of GRMN on this blog till it touches close to ....115...no -recalculating: 120 is the near term target. Had to laugh out loud when I heard they were acknowledging this winner- on FAST MONEY... 140% return in the past year. Better late than never.

But before I get it off my radar will urge you to get a car navigation device- from Garmin. Its a time saver. Wonder how we ever got around without it. In familiar territory I still make a wrong turn somewhere to hear the device say " RECALCULATING" and then lead us back the right way.

We wish there was a device that helped us navigate around wall streets wits and whims... for now I am using my instinct- tomorrow rally after the employment numbers come out.

GOLD I cant reiterate it enough. Its a hedge against the dollar ... and with oil poised to touch 80... $.... inflation fears rule- what better to own than a commodity. My underlying thought is gold begins a new found rally from $700 to .... $800... (I am bold... but have been bullish on gold even when it pulled back to 550... couple of months back) a new found rally as people newly find and realize what they have been missing. THE POINT that gold is a hedge....gold is and will be in demand in China and in India and in Russia... as long as these countries continue the growth story... and in US the dollar decline too speaks of GOLD goin up. FED expected to ease- what goes down? THE T-bills go down and what goes up? GOLD. and the world currencies.... I guess.

Mona's lookin beyond the employment numbers. Most of the bullish targets are met. One more rally later... next week we see some re-adjustments and retesting of fears- as media will talk of 9/11. Lack luster or maybe some volatile moves will present themselves. And we may just graze around and watch the action while we sit on the sidewalks of wall street.

BRILLIANT PULL-BACK

ITs called a classic pull back in my language. From 13000 to 13450... and we have about a 50% pull back.... down 225 maybe today. Its down 195 -its 2.50 pm. To my mind this a classic chance for those who missed the rally from the subprime mess lows... to BUY on DIPS.

Employment Friday tomorrow brings in the employment numbers which is expected to come in at 105000 or so. Whatever the number be (just like last Friday- whatever the Fed may say) the market rallies again after digesting the numbers. The jobs may be low and blamed on the housing and mortgage gloom... and they may be high and better than the expected number and we are up and running again. WIN WIN situation tomorrow.

YHOO is showing strength. If it did not break down during the 200 point pull back today, it can only go higher on a 250 point rally tomorrow, right? EBAY is upto 35. I loved it at 33 and love it more at 35 - where would ya get a low-risk play with high returns? Right here at mona's instinctive blogspot. The target is 42- for the year end.

A contrarain play can be MNST (MONSTER WORLDWIDE) the online jobs recruiting company. ITs been beaten down too much- if the estimates are right this one has a P.E. of 18... which is more than its growth rate. I humbly pull the trigger to buy at 33.80. right now- for a pop to 40 very soon. The downside is 30... but we know its not going that-a-way.

Enjoy the pull backs. These are traders days. They dont come so fast and furious. The best part is you make the money work again and again and voilahooo you are all cash so many times. Like yesterday I was almost all cash- unloaded TSL, BRCM, some GRMN... after good gains. And today am back in TSL. and buying MNST and YHOO. There is no risk doing this because the market is behaving so well. Up 150 and then correctly down 150. See-saw... pattern... Hee-haw.... have to discover what the donkey is doing in bull and bear territory. Until then, have a happy time analyzing but do pull the triggger to buy and sell. And may you read my blogs and laugh all the way to the bank...

YAHOOO....lets get targets on this one.

Yahoo woke up today with a start- up $1.25 .... and woke me up too. Rubbed my eyes- to check again. Looks like this ones out of slumber at last... and bottomed out. Its 23.9.... and my target is nothin less than 30. But I may sell some on the way...Ha.

Someones talkin about the VIX... lets pay heed. Its at 23 or so... he says we are in for some more volatility in the weeks to come. Which means the VIX will be up again -maybe not upto the crazy 35 level... but who knows... its a mad market. Traders will love it if the VIX decides to dance again.

My target for the NASDAQ is met. Its at 2630. DOW has 200 pts more to go and S& P 13 points away. AM I raising my targets. No, I am not a greedy chaser. I am happy to sell my positions once my targets are met and enjoy the cash for a while until an opportunity presents itself. Thats discipline.

TSL IS 50 today. Up 25% in a week since I recommended it. Now those are astronmical gains. I am not greedy. I sell today.

GRMN did something strange on Friday. I recommended buy in the mid 90s. I did myself. And then on Friday it went to 105.85 to a new high. IT closed all the way down to 101 and change. DID I panic? NO I bought the 110 call options at 1.50. I would not have done that if I did not have faith in the stock and story. It helped. This morning when YHOO woke me up -with a 1.25 $ gain... I checked GRMN. It was at 107. Sold my call options at 3 for a $1500 gain in a day and 100% return on that little call investment. HOLYMOLY VOILAHOO... Am holding onto the GRMN shares for a target price of 120. give and take a few cents.

Moving onto Yahoo- no pause for applause... this one is out of its slumber- I think there is no stopping it until 30... its 23.8...for anyone who is reading.

I have a new pick that has low downside in my opinion. SIRF at $17! Its in the GPS device chip business. ITs hit a 52 week low of 16.2 last week. If GRMN is doing so well... the chip that goes into its device (NUVI) should do well. Theres fears of competition... but not the end of the world... Monas trading instinct says BUY SIRF.

Today it is all about picks. But beware the VIXX... and the volatility ... hopefully I should be able to sell my positions by thursday- FRIDAY I change some stories... Thats me signing off reminding you to pull the trigger when its due.

Theres nothing but celebration... coming up. AM takin some people out for lunch soon... as my comments have been right on the money- I cant believe it myself- after all I am no Cramer.... and no one reads my blog.
Hope you are reading...AB! Would like you to participate in my next lunch celebration... but alas....