TRICK OR TREAT?

I have to get a halloween costume for my boy. Have to get it on or before the 31st of October. Makes sense, timing is everything.

Talking of timing we better get that right as traders. Sold YHOO at 34 yesterday. That was the closest call I ever made. Bought last week at 30.25 (scroll down my blog archive) and sold yesterday at 34. The Alibaba IPO effect had to be shortlived I knew and we sold at the first glimpse of momentum in the stock. Believe it or not we got 34 at the open yestereday, missed a heart beat to see that the stock closed at 31.75 or so. And it is down another buck today at 30.75. Do we buy it back. Looks like a good trade again. But no, I move on to the next pick. Timing means a lot for short term traders. To be able to get out at the right price and right day...

Not much to say ahead of the Fed meeting. We raised cash and I dont find any buys except for one in the technology sector. BRCM. We had a nice ride last month from 32 to 40. And after earnings that were not that bad the stock got hammered all the way to 32 again. It reflects a technical move as well and if technology is as great as it is pointed out to be ... BRCM will recover nicely with a tech rally. SO thats a buy at 32.2 right now.

The financials have been all over the place and a traders delight. Instead of paying attention to the exact mess that Merrill is revealing in the management camp... buy low and sell high works well. But buy the other financials, stay away from Merrill itself. Too much negative reaction on disappointing appointments at Merrill can lead to more damage than we as laymen can perceive. When Merrill collapsed to 60 last week... LEHMAN pulled back to 54 in sympathy and we had a great time buying them at 55. When word got out that Merrill CEO will step down etc. dont know where it traded... but got a chance to sell LEH at 61 and change. So watching the price action is a good tip for traders.

If the financials pullback some more before or after the Fed meeting they may present a chance to buy. Morgan Stanley in the low 60s or Lehman in the 58-60 level look good to me.

About the Fed action tomorrow seems the market is expecting at least a 25 basis rate reduction. Lets hope for that. When my child does not get his halloween costume when he expects it- on or before halloween... he gets mad. If themarket does not get what it expects it will I am afraid get mad, very mad. And a collapse is not out of order. 25 basis, Mr. Berny if you are our friend. Trick or treat, whats it gonna be? We shall see...
We have cash to make it work so lets watch.... good luck... and dont fret what the FED does... make the most before and after... what they do.

TAKING PROFITS AHEAD OF THE FED

Rally continued on friday and Monday morning looks good. Global markets were strong. Ahead of the Fed meeting and interest rate cut decision on Wednesday methinks we have a chance to sell some and be ready for a pullback thursday ahead of the job numbers. Sell into this rally is my trade. LEH bought last week at 55 looks good as I sell at 61.50 today. YHOO nibbled at 30.25- last week selling at 34 today before the ALIBABA IPO effect wears off. ENER rallied to 29 and change close to my target of 30- it was undervalued at 25 where we bought it... and still goes higher but for now will sell at 29.25! We trade to make money and if we dont sell we just see the ups and downs in the stock prices.
AKAM is nearing 40 -will watch this one. Have held on all the way from 30 and if it does break out above 40 may get 45. Not being greedy, just rational as I love the sector AKAM is a leader in. LLNW the new recruit has started moving again.... We are in 10 and 11 its about 12.25... my target is 15 and I will be patient.

YGE my solitary solar play broke out just as expected. In at 31.7- its foolish to sell a solar stock that just breaks out to a new 52 week high... but selling half the position at 38 if I get it today... makes me comfortable to get in again if it does pullback. Or we make money on the half position we did not sell? YA?

Mona will be back soon. For now sell into the rally and watch for pullbacks. Year end rally will continue to test the highs but not without some hiccups...

Cheers ... and good luck.

HALO 3 EFFECT-... HALO-HOO

MSFT (the all powerful Microsoft...) makes a debut on my blog.
Stocks rally today swayed up by none other than MSFT that beat analysts estimates by 10 cents. (its called `blew estimates away'). The stock rallied to a six year high... today at 36, up 4 bucks this morning.

Another catalyst for the rally on wall street today was Countrywide Financial making a positive comment -expecting profitability in 2008. If all firms just paid heed to what investors are looking for- postitive comments... about next year... there would be more green after the earnings.

All our positions are up- CSCO, EBAY, AKAM, LLNW... and we will hold into next week. YGE, our singular solar play- broke out today... we are in at 31 and change. Its at 34... and will watch next week for 40, perhaps.
Once a stock crosses its 52 week high... the $ky is the limit....

I added some COH to our holdings as it touched 35 - just as predicted in my blog 2 days back.

Lehman (LEH) our financial stock gave me a hard time when it broke down alongwith Merrill Lynch's woes- (wrote down $8 billion losses) taking all financials down to lows ...! Picked up some more LEH at 55... to average down and will wait for a rally as the FED meeting comes closer...

For now HALO-HOO for MSFT and hopefully the stock stays up... a failed rally will be disappointing... to say the least... WATCHIN again... before we put more money to work.

EARNINGS- LURKING... WIN SOME LOSE SOME

We are watching the third quarter earnings and we see some winners and some losers. Each stock reacts differently. A lot depends on where the stock is coming from before the earnings release. A stock like AMZN that traded up to almost 100... yesterday had no room for error. Had I owned it I would have been happy all the way to the bank at 99. Its come up from 50...well... it was even lower than that last year. The earnings were okay, margins weaker... and the stock is down 9 bucks. And in my opinion going lower... but am doing nothing.

AAPL had a stellar quarter by all counts and though the stock has had a voilahoola run this year... from 78 to 175 before the earnings. The upbeat quarter was worth another 10 bucks and its 185 today. It goes higher... but am doing nothing.

COH (Coach) I thought was a good trade at 40 and bought some... but it had a glum consumer spending outlook for the holiday season... and its down to 36 and change... OUCH. That hurt. Who asked me to venture before the earnings. No matter how much you know that holding stock positions before the earnings report is dangerous... one does make such mistakes. I am not going to stop loss this one. I am going to watch. I think it has support around the 35 area and the stock is down too much - trading at cheaper valuation... as it did not bring down its estimates.

For now EBAY and CSCO look like safe and steady bets. EBAY had great earnings and upped estimates, still got beat up from 41 to 36... We are in it ... for the rally that ensues some time soon. CSCO I added some at 31- its a no-brainer for reasons stated in my blog a couple of times...

Stay tuned as we find more opportunities. Forgot to mention YHOO- looks like breaking out above 30... may take it to 34... if the ALIBABA IPO next week is a sensation as most chinese IPOs are these days. YHOO has a big enough stake in the company to make it move higher ... is my opinion. Nibbling a bit on YHOO at 30.25 today... for a quick trade.

GOOD luck and happy trading... all.

VOLATILE AGAIN? VIX where are you today?

Friday ended in a crashy type of market. I was wrong when I said we may turn out okay by the close. The volatility index rose ... again to 25... on the nasdaq. Remember the VIX was close to 32 in August when the market had its tremors?

We did very well with our puts on SLB (the oil service play). Today SLB is down to 95. And we made a huge amount of money by selling all our NOVEMBER puts. I do not recommend holding options when they are in the money in a big way ... take the profits and rotate into the next position. If the stock were to turn around the profits will evaporate fast and furiously.

CRM (Saleforce.com) was another short position we hold at 54. It touched 50 today. Great time to cover at least half our position. CRM has competition creeping up from the likes of MSFT... and CRM is trading at p.e. multiple of way above 100.... Despite stellar growth the price is way ahead of itself unless its on the takeover radar. Will watch it closely for it to drop below 50 this week and cover our short position and move on.

This time around the correction that began last week does not seem to be panicky and fearful. The same stories - recession, subprime, housing -dont scare us anymore. I would worry if there was somethin new to scare us about. I think the market will be okay- such pullbacks are great to put our cash to work.

Today I am buying COH (COACH) at 40.8, its oversold in my opinion and a great brand with global presence... good for a trade. Also like CSCO again at 31- its a low risk play. YGE - solar stock -we bought at 31 last week - averaging today by buying at 29 ... have a good vibe on this one and the earnings if the YAHOO finance numbers be right, look too good ... at $5.18/share for 2008. SO YGE is a screaming solar buy. Will keep a stop loss at 25 of course.

Our position in SNDK got stop lossed at 45 on FRIDAY. I still like SNDK... maybe if it gets closer to 40 will buy it again. Will watch it this week.

Some more earnings comin in this week. Lets watch the price action in MSFT and AAPL before and after earnings... and then re-assess what we can do to take advantage. Meanwhile, its been great going so far and theres more reason to celebrate than swoon as our short positions save the day and our longs did not collapse.

We are not done going down... a few days of consolidation and one more round of sell-off with the VIX rising again will make me more comfortable going long LONG!

OIL SERVICE CRASHIN...

OIL service companies are a-crashing today led by SLB. Some posts ago we bought put options- the NOVEMBER strike price $100 at 1.80 or so. Believe it or not we doubled our money there... they are trading at 2.80 and going strong. WHY? Because SLB reported earnings today and sell on the news worked out just as predicted. We took some money off that trade and am letting some ride till next week. If SLB trades below 100 we can make more. Since options can be very volatile and timing is everything when we deal with options we will watch this one carefully.

Today the stock market is in the red big time... DOW down 200 points already. This is the pullback I was waiting for. I will wait for DOW 13500 to put our CASH to work. But no harm in nibbling the companies that reported good numbers and raised estimates. I am thinking EBAY. We rode the rally from 32 to 40. Its trading below 37... and I am a buyer on this dip today right away- 36.75 for a quick trade.

A word on why the market is down so much. Its simple. After the unabated rally to new highs... 14200 and some, it was overdue for a correction. Thats whats happening. Nothin to panic about. Panic loses money- got to be objective and buy the right stocks at this opportunity.
The trigger for the crash is earnings obviously... good or bad, stocks get hit. CATERPILLAR was one of the catalysts for it made pessimistic comments on the U.S. economy- (global economy is fine... thats a good read-between-the-lines) and it got slammed- down 3 bucks to 75.

GOOGLE is a face-saver for the markets today- on its way to glory-hooo.... as it beat estimates and analysts have gone ahead and given it price targets as high as 800. Was as high as 658 in the morning. GOOGLE will go to 800 if they say so... who knows. But I would rather buy a stock at 60 that may go to 80... and get the same returns ...

HANG in there... todays pullback is healthy. Maybe the upbeat quarter by GOOGLE and market sentiment not all that bad may pull off a recovery in the markets during the day.... maybe less red and we be down in double digits for the day. I will take that and look forward to better days next week, as we get closer to the FED meeting. Remember he may give us another rate cut. And the market will feel more comfortable...going into the year end.

Meanwhile... we will watch our short positions. SLB worked out. I am short CRM -at an average price of 54. We will talk of that position next week. Read my blog and dont forget to post a comment... anyone can comment- you dont have to be a google email account holder anymore. I fixed that... Today even in the dull bruised market lets say KUDOS to GOOGLE... for continuing its uptrend. GOOG-A-HOOO.... till next week. Have a great one, all.

A VOILAHOO FOR YAHOO

A VOILAHOO for YHOO is in order. Nothing spectacular. Earnings were okay and future estimates better. Enough to put Yhoo in the green to 29. I think it bottomed out for this year. May get a chance to buy it around 28. But am not trading it yet. INTEL earnings were good and future guidance better. The stock is higher... to a 52 week high of 27 ... which is all very good. We do not buy Yhoo and INTEL today as they are up already and
theres only a buck or two be made from here. But we can buy them on pullbacks as they are safe trades. But we take this as a positive development for the market going forward as the sentiment is better.
The good earnings reports definitely helped to ward off the bad sentiment fromt he housing numbers.

Housing numbers were awful today and still the market seems to be shrugging them off. High time that the market does that. Housing stocks have little room to go down. In a another year we can maybe expect some kind of recovery- ? DHI 12.28 was the low from which it sprang back to 13... scary... but we are holding on.

A lot is based on sentiment. If overall the sentiment is good, global boom continues, US chugs along, valuations are very reasonable, holiday season will be upon us, dont see any doomsday comin up, subprime messes are out in the open.... I mean it may not be over... but its old news.... FED cuts rates and theres more liquidity in the system... People who were waiting start buying homes again. And slowly the money on the sidelines starts investing in real estate again... Its a wishful scenario... Lets see how it unfolds.

So based on this thinking, somehow looks to me like the hurdles for the market rally are clearing up. If today after INTC and YHOO numbers, add to that also JP MORGAN reported better than expected earnings... the market is dull, its only a pause. I see GREEN across the board - DOW above 14000, NASDAQ above 2800 and S&P 1550 by close today.

I still like LLNW and AKAM -both are down on no news. LLNW raised estimates and was trading around 12 last week. Its down to 10.50 and I am pulling the trigger to buy more today. Its filling the gap- so to say is my thinking... and my target is 15 sometime next month. SO help me GOD. AKAM holding on from 30- went to 40 and we did not sell. Was a mistake as its 33.5 today... there are sinister market bashers after this one... AM buying more at 33.5 as I have faith in what its doing. If streaming media is a screaming buy got to be in AKAM the leader and LLNW the new kid on the block.

Loved COH (coach) yesterday (mentioned it on another board.... but forgot to mention it here).... it was down to 41.5 near its support level and I bought some ... it was a no-brainer ... Its upto 43 already- Will sell at 45- by next week.

SNDK has been unduly punished in my opinion and good for a trade. Its at 48 ... will keep a stop loss at 46.... and upside looks good. SO puttin some money to use as techonlogy skies are smiling.

SOLAR play, YGE is ready to breakout ... we are in at 31.7, remember. Will not take less than 40 on this one. We played with TRISOLAR and made good money back and forth between 40 -50 ...its trading range is 50 to 50 these days... but switching to YGE made sense as its still making new highs.

We are watching the earnings season unfold and getting ready for the FED meeting at the end of the month. Will BERNY give us another rate cut and pave the way for record highs on the DOW? Who knows, but for now lets rejoice good earnings from INTC and YHOO. VOILAHOOOO and buying on a pullback today will be a good idea.

Thats it from me.... remember its only money.... learn to invest it, diversify, and then keep some on the side to leap into trades that can make more money- watch the sentiment.... it always helps...

PULLBACK... continues...

Cash is king but got to put it to work. Citigroup earnings were not a non-event after all. The financial messes tore down sentiments all over the market. But I got an opportunity to buy LEH at 60 today. I am lookin forward to 65 again. This got easy again.

VCLK- the risky play served out the risk today as it lowered its revenue estimates. The stock got slammed to 24.5 on the open. And I ran for cover. Will buy it back if at all it goes to 20. If VCLK was hot as it was a potential buyout candidate, a lower revenue estimate and the resultant drop in share price would only bring the suitors more closer to a deal... is my thinking. But the market shoots first and analyzes later... so its too risky to hold.

We put the cash in LEH for now. Financials are down a lot on the same news... so they are safer. Says who? I know am going against the herd... who think staying away from financials is the way to go. Well time will tell.

Amazon looks like done going up but tis time to watch .... and be wary. The worst time to trade is ahead of the earnings... as sometimes they can take all your gains away in a day. Take a look at Ericsson - its down 20% (10 bucks ) this morning on a profit warning. Warned you, be in cash didn't I? The same cash buys more shares when they get hammered so bad.

Once the market absorbs the shocks - maybe a couple of hundred more points to go on the downside we will be close to the next FED meeting. And once that is absorbed whats to stop the year end rally? Who knows. I am more concerned about today... and what we can do to make the most of the moves... Stay tuned...

Lets meet after YHOO and INTEL report today. Buyer beware... look for stellar comments from the conference calls, aint happenin if a slowdown is lurking. So once again cash is king.

ANALYST UPGRADES- HE HE

SIRF was upgraded by lehman brothers... to BUY. Its trading at 25. Mona upgraded it to STRONGEST BUY at 16. And recommended to sell at 24. See how safe we are. Never mind, I am glad the analysts finally noticed a great winner- the chips that go into the GPS device have got to win when the GPS device maker is makin 52 week highs... (GRMN)... Besides SIRF makes chips that also go into cell phones... so thats a double win I would say. Does not help chasing a stock thats already made good money for me. Just improves my confidence in being ahead of the market. SIRF soars to 30 from 25... but I will not chase it here.

Citi earnings were a non event. Breathing a sigh of relief that the stock did not tank ... Obviously the financials are done going down. LEH is my pick- at 63. Will be patient with this one.

And just for a risky momentum trade- am buying YGE- a solar stock -thats undervalued if the YAHOO finance numbers are right. (I am skeptical) Yahoo finance says its got a forward P.E. of 6? Ouch... that hurts when FSLR is trading at P.E. of more than a 100... ! YGE is trading at 32... and going down right now- against the rules am buying a stock as it goes down. In at 31.7. Downside is 25- if all goes well. But upside - well... lets just say 45... if the market continues to love solar.

Awaiting YHOO earnings tomorrow. If that does not make this market pullback... there will be more worries as more earnings unfold. Lets re-assess tomorrow. Meanwhile... happy trading... theres no better time than now to make a trade and some money with mona on your side...

EARNINGS SEASON

CASH is king and CASH reigns during earnings season. No matter how intuitive you may be, if you are a trader or short term investor, why would ya hold onto a stock ahead of the earnings train. All you save is brokerage. All you can lose is the hard earned money you made during the quarter.

The furious moves that a stock can make after the earnings is a great trade by itself so its tempting to buy ahead of the earnings. And make a killing if the earnings are good. NO NO NO. It does not work like that. Three factors are a must for a stock to move higher after the earnings:
1,The earnings have to be better than the street expects and better than the whisper number which is a tad bit even higher than the street expectations. HA.
2.The stock price should not have moved up ahead of the earnings.
3.And the forward guidance or the future earnings better be good.

Thats simple. But once these three factors are taken care of, the
market has other issues that can stifle a rally. Say, the sentiment of the conference call that follows the earnings release. The buyback or lack of a buyback announcement. The revenue numbers and the estimates going forward. And so on and so forth.

Over and above the earnings... with the major indices having rallied to highs...not seen in years... this time around, I see more chances of a pullback regardless of earnings. So I am a seller on rallies rather than a buyer on pullbacks. And can patiently await more critical points to buy stock for the longer term.

Lets see how it goes. CITIGROUP reports before the market opens. The worst case will be in the numbers. Whether we get a CEO resignation is a question? The stock price action on C will guide us on how to play the financials.

Housing stocks are a safe bet. Ironical to say that when the economy recession looms on their status. But these are trading at 25% discount to their book values... and one wonders if no recovery will ever ensue. One good housing number can rock these stocks is my take. SO am in DHI at 14 and TOL at 22.5 for now.

More after the maket opens tomorrow.... just a buyer beware post ahead of the earnings. Even if the earnings are good and 4th qtr numbers are good, theres lots of issues to mull upon- like FED to cut or not to cut end of the month.... , housing recovery- to be or not to be-, Oil rally to continue or not to... , subprime woes off radar or not... TOO MANY `or not's to grapple with...

SO watching the market moves will help us consolidate our sentiments... and our money...

Read and write... Its now open to all to comment. As I learn more about the technicals of blogging, it will be more interactive, I guess. For newcomers I suggest you scroll down to the first blog to know what monas is all about. ...! We have had a stellar run since the fall of AUGUST. I am happy!

REVERSAL.... YESSS.....

Yesterday the stock market suffered a classic reversal. Up and up and up all morning and no signs of a pullback. I had a `feeling' (feelings are turning out to be my achilles heel, believe it or not) that the market would close in the red. But was wondering what on God's green earth would turn the market around ... as I stepped out for the day. Volatility is missing too.... wonder whats gonna make the market go red... I mumbled to myself as I got busy with some chores.

Late evening when I checked on the market moves- was pleased that the pullback did occur in a severe way. Could never have predicted that a downgrade on BIDU would be the trigger. The point is that BIDU was just the medium... the market was overbought and any such news on a hi-flier was enough to affect the sentiment to swoon.

A recovery today will be short lived is my humble opinion. Like it or not am a seller. Cannot risk losing money so am out of CSCO at 33 and OVTI at 24.5 though my targets were 35 and 27 .... will get a chance to buy cheaper as the earnings season pulls the market down to better levels. And remember cash is king and can be used when the next big opportunity arrives.

Am still long on AKAM and LLNW. We are in at 30 and 10 on these. LLNW raised its estimates last evening. Thanked my crystal ball for the small mercy. AKAM is 36 and LLNW is 12.5 today... am happy and secure as these are in the right growth sector and competition or not streaming media is hot.

Be that as it may, our short positions have started working. CHNR- the second round made more money. Shorted at 45 again and will try to cover today at 35 (its 38 now). We bought puts on NILE, November $100 $3.50 a piece. The stock price dived from 100 to 89... in the last two days, the puts soared to $7 and we doubled our money- (100% return in two weeks... YAY HOO). Am not greedy though I know they can go to 15 if NILE dives another 10 points, am takin my profits and laughing to the bank, so to say. With the money am buying some puts on SLB (Schlumberger - oil service company) the November $100 puts at 1.80 are cheap. Just on valuation and good oil prices and prospects priced in already.

New ideas- ENER at 26 may be a good idea. Its Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. It commercializes stuff for alternative energy, energy storage, and information technology markets. It contributes to the solar sector- ! Though I think much of the solar power is priced in the high flying solar stocks like FSLR (we have puts on this one...too) and JASO and SPWR ...! You can get badly hurt and I dont recommend these solar stocks anymore. Not after seeing LDK (OUCH -LDK has been one sharp falling knife- from 70s to 40s... in less than a month) slide. The others will follow suit... one of these days when the market reverses and goes lower for couple of days. But all thats solar is not to be sold. So a play like ENER thats closer to the 52 week low- and pickin up steam... is a good idea with lower downside risk. Am buying some at 26 to start with. And will watch for a pull back to add more. Target price is 30 in a month.

Thats it for today. Fall is here, be it for the weather or for the market, got to make the most of both. Meanwhile, do post your comments. Correct me when I am wrong. Chide me when I brag. Applaud me when I make some money for you. Got to learn to keep the sentiment happy- its only money.

MOMENTUM....

Bought VCLK this morning at 28. Jim Cramer reminded me of this one. The last time this one moved straight up to 36 from the mid 20s - that was the time when the talk of takeovers was on- AQNT was bought at a good premium.... and VCLK went higher by extension. Nothin much happened then... and as reality sunk in.... it traded down all the way to 19. Did Cramer ask us to buy at that price?? No too low.... and too much out of favor. As the bargain hunters came in the stock slowly moved back above 20 to 23-24.... and then Cramer pulled the trigger on this one reminding us that this one was a potential take over candidate- being in the online ad sector and the numbers looked good again... It was 25 or so then. After Cramer spoke it popped to 27 ... and when I look at the charts looks like free ride to 32...and then with the 52 week high close at hand... more shorts will cover .... and up up up goes the stock.

This is a clear example of a stock moving up 10-15 points on no real news. Just speculation. I am in at 28... but keeping a close watch. Target price is 32... but may get 35...?

I was right on the money. STV went up 12 bucks yesterday- and we took our profits. From 42 to 52 in a day, is good going for me. Does not mean it does not go higher... these days anything chinese and with positive outlooks just trade higher and higher... till they defy gravity and still stay there .... thats how bubbles are made. When they pop people get hurt. Traders dont. As we are in and out quickly.

The only buy and hold for me was CSCO and AKAM. CSCO slow and steady from 28 to 33 feels good. Am out at 34.99 if it does reach there soon. And AKAM from 28 to 37 feels divine... more so as the upside here will be fast and furious. My target is 45... in a month if not sooner. YAY... we are still doing fine with our money.... could not get better I should say.
Earnings season began with a whimper- Alcoa missed estimates- OOOOH...but not much damage was done as the company announced a buyback... worth billions of dollars... Ha. Told ya its complicated. Miss your numbers? Announce a buy back so the street does not shoot... ya.
AA has done going up is my opinion. Close to 40 is peakin for now.

Yhoo is at 28. We had a ride from 23 to 28. Not bad. Earnings come in tomorrow. Would not hold this one before earnings so am all cash. Switched from Yhoo to VCLK at the same price. If VCLK can go from 28 to 30 without much ado why buy Yahoo is my theory.....YHOO is out of favor for long, so more reason to hold on but until the street acknowldeges theres going to be too much wait. I would rather buy if it pops to 30 knowing it goes higher. More after it reports earnings.

Thats all from me at the moment. Wish someone would comment so I know they are reading. Monas crytal ball is getting bearish... not for a full fledged sell off but a decent pullback.... maybe DOW 13600 and NASDAQ to 2700 or so... Thank you for reading...

MOMENTUM-CHINA $$

China sure spells m.om.e.n.t.u.m these days. IPOs are being rewarded unbelievably. Case in point- STV. the CHINA Digital TV company listed on the NYSE Monday. IPO price was a mere $16 -it closed at 28 or so on its debut. Next day soared to 40. Where is it heading? With BIDU at all time highs- following the GOOGLE path... looks like this ones in the right country- The stock price has got a run rate of 12 bucks a day. So lets say, back of the envelope calculation for STV gives me 52 tomorrow (I should say today- as its 2 a.m. Oct 8) and then 64 the day after? When does one sell? Just before the momentum is over and out. How do you know that. You almost never know when- so you usually get burnt. Unless you start selling at the first sign of a fall- not a pullback.


The jist of it is theres loads of money to be made in the chinese stocks. I watched CHNR - China Natural Resources- move from 10 to 50 in a week- and I knew this ones going to get busted, momentum or no momentum. Shorted at 47 on monday (see mondays blog) Covered at 35 in a day. Like I said theres loads of money to be made either way on these chinese stocks, as long as you get in and out at the right time... TIMING is everything. I would not be caught long in my short position though I think it could go back to the 20s before we know it.

I would certainly not recommend playing such hi-fliers on the long side unless you hedge your position by buying put options somewhere down the line... but most of these new companies will not offer you that as yet. So watching helps. Trading in and out while the momentum is on can be a winning strategy as long as the stock continues going up.

Its just another madness in the market that I am sounding an alert on- momentum is madness... and it certainly moves a stock fast...and traders who follow the price movement of a stock actually buy stocks that have risen a lot in price... that adds to the momentum and the stock can go still higher.

These days I am getting a sense that the market is overbought. Theres the earnings comin up this week- ALCOA being the first one tomorrow... and still theres been no pullback or fear. I am happy with cash though its tempting to get pulled into the momentum.

FINANCIALS- Lehman looks good to me. Its settled down around 62- may not be a bad idea to buy some- for long term... can easily pull off 70 - with not much risk on the downside.

AKAM- is finally moving up- was a dead stock at 30 beaten down- from a high of almost $60... its the internet media delivery leader...crushed due to competition fears- is finally moving up= 34 today. If the momentum returns to this one- mid 40s is not far away.... Theres analysts who say sell and analysts who say buy. I am in this one at 30 and will stay with it till it reaches 40 this month... wish I could be more humble. To sway the fear of competition lets buy the newbie - LLNW= Limelight networks trading at 10 or so. So one way or the other we make money- got to love the sector- delivering video- graphics-music... includes Apples ITUNES... whats not to like.

Theres nervousness out there.... would stay away from everything other than beaten down stocks... that have shown life... cuz they are the ones that will continue rising... when the hi-fliers start to correct.

Correct or wrong... we shall see... high anziety- spells more rallies- watch out for every bear to get bullish... takin the market to new heights. We shall watch and stand by to applause that move- and be all cash - will let you know one of these days, says Mona, thats me.

KUDOS- job numbers...

HA HA HA HA HA HA.... cant help but laugh out loud. The job numbers which were declared at - 4000 last month- which means that the economy lost 4000 jobs ... . - well, these were revised to a new number that says the economy actually added 89000 jobs last month. Now were the economist gurus more accurate maybe the FED may not have eased interest rates by 50 basis points ... when it did in September. That was triggered off by the bad job numbers among other pressures I guess. A negative jobs report is dicey- well it was WRONG. The ecnomomy added 89000 jobs ... get it?

Today they said the economy added 110000 in September. And we are on our way to record territory as far as the stock market is concerned. Whats good for the sentiment is good for the economy. If God forbid these numbers are revised next month ... who is to know... whether the rally is justified.

DOW up to 14065. NASDAQ upto 2773... S& P upto 1555... WILL NOT LAST is my prognosis.

For me, I am a seller again. Sold some of SIRF... from 16 to 24 is good for me... Will find a new entry point below 23... for the cash raised. Or move to a greener pasture. Am out of BRCM... thats been good to me... from 32 to 38... ! AM holding onto GLW which we bought at 24... its 25.8... and am a seller at 27 next week. I still await for CSCO to break out. My prediction of DOW 14000 and CSCO 35 on the same day was wrong. CSCO touched 33 and change and is sulking again at 32. Must have been some analyst's downgrade at the wrong time.

CHNR is my new short. Shorted at 47 today... its a china stock gone out of whack. Up from 10 to 50 in a week spells SELL for me. SLB- the oil services company is getting pricey- am buying puts...

Am sticking with my housing stocks... DHI and TOL and for technology SNDK looks good at 52.

End of week, another number out of the way. Maybe next week we still rally a bit more... and then pause as the earnings releases start. Thats cause for all the selling I have done. Will watch for the next opportunity and bring it to this blog.

Meanwhile... stay tuned...for more laughs .... at monasmadmarket...

SERIOUS MONEY

If only people listened. The housing stocks are up again 3 days in a row.
Cannot believe it. KBH from 25.7 to 29.30 in 3 days- am sure glad I bought some. Pitched it as my long term play but my target of 30 is almost met. Selling some for a re-entry if housing tanks again makes sense. And the rest can steadily go up with the momentum. When a sector truly bottoms, no one tells you (cept me of course). Am getting good at it I hope.

The market is flirting with 14000- and will do it I think until friday when the employment numbers come out. Regardless of the numbers, good or bad, I think there will be a bit of a pullback. Lets see.

GRMN I was right- a pullback was not a good buy at 105. Its 98... and I am throwing this one out of my radar. Risk is too high with market sentiment being fearful on this one. We were lucky to get out at 120. Am glad greed is not part of my trading equation.

Am watching the financials- recovering slowly. A pullback on more talk of subprime messes... will be a good entry point. Of the financials, I am watching LEH forming a trading range = 60 to 65. Hmmmmmm.

All in all, we raised some more cash. Waiting for the pullback- to buy for the year end rally. Also waiting for signs of a slowdown in the earnings releases that start next week- and lowering of estimates. If that does not make the market pull back... enjoy the ride until its time to short. A short term short I am being bold by adding XOM to my list. At 92 its safe to short... as oil prices may also come down from highs if the slowdown does materialize.

Good going... for now. Hope it continues. More tomorrow. Stay tuned.

HOUSING relief breeze feels good...

Some more painful housing numbers were out this morning. The worst seems to be in the market is the prognosis. I said that before. They are saying it now. Its a wild guess. But such sentiments bode well for a sector that is beaten down, mutilated, crushed to death- 80 % down in some cases is not bear market territory -its the funeral ground. But I see some life in our pick DHI -we were in and out and in again at 13 last week. It is up to 14.70 today- will wait till 16.50, nothing less to close the trade. While no one was lookin I also sneaked in and bought some KBH -another beaten down home builder which has a strong balance sheet- that spells survival. This could be a long term pick - to build a long term portfolio from the trading profits is no risk... only reward if we wait patiently. So while I trade DHI, I will hold KBH for longer... my cost is 25.7 from yesterday. It rallied to 27.5 today with the other home builders. I am hoping for 30 + if not more if I wait.

OVTI- the company that makes cell phone camera sensor chips- is ready to break out. Actually in at 19- and its up to 24, I should be taking profits. But it has some positive news today -launching a new image sensor with anti-shake capacity. Anti-shake comes into play in low-light situations when cameras need a longer exposure time and therefore a steadier hand. When camera phones using the sensor detect the slightest camera movement, image stabilization will activate, the sensor will help to prevent image blur and the end result will be sharper images. It sounds good to me. So I figure those who read the news will buy today and shorts will run for cover- love it when that happens to a stock I own. The technicals show no resistance to 27.7 I think. So am safe with this one. Selling at 27 -this week. Ha. Lets see.

Rest is okay. Dow 14100 almost yesterday was stellar - and I think we peak before we pullback. Wont be surprized if we go up steadily every day... If homebuilders are bottoming and financials are feeling more comfortable tackling the subprime messes in their stride... and technology ceos booming and global demand intact.... whats not to like.

Yay... I am happy with my 30th consecutive post... got my confidence back and hope the few readers of monas market psyche made some money... Be in synch with monas ink... it wont be tough no more.

DOW 14000 just as predicted on Friday...

This is becoming easy. DOW 14000 this morning welcoming the new quarter just as I mentioned on Friday. Bet it wont stay above 14000. So I am a seller to sleep easy as the earnings season begins. Could not have timed it better.

Indian ADRs voilavoilahoo ya... IBN at a 52 week high- some were skeptical about this pick- an Indian ICICI bank that was going cheap under 25 last year... is too high at 38... but turned out one of my best safe and sound picks- selling at 53.5 today. Would not have found this opportunity but for the mortgage mess that led the market to crushed levels in august when I started my blog. The other Indian ADR I was bragging about= TATA motors at 15. Its trading at 19.5 - not bad. AM selling for now. And will watch closely. INFY, the infotech leader from INDIA, INFOSY tech= nearing 50 today. Too much resistance at this level coupled with the fear of the currency depression in earnings as the rupee is stronger... has slowed this one. In at 44 and am going to sell half my position at 50. Will watch and probably get 53 if shorts start covering ... and if not, I may buy again this month at 47 if it affords the opportunity again.

If the market dips as it reaches frothy levels- too far too fast, may make some money by buying puts. That is options to sell a stock. Am buying puts on FSLR= First Solar... It broke out to a new high of 125. The P/E over a 100 is a bit unjustified. It can dive 20 bucks in a day if it does not perform on earnings date. For that day... a few November 100 puts seem a good enough risk at #3.30 a piece. Maximum I lose is $3.30 per option. With all the money we made this month- whats a $3000 loss. So we buy 10 puts. And watch very closely. NILE is the other one I would like to short. Its the online diamond retailer. Richly valued and momentum driven, with a forward P.E of above 75 am wondering if in shaky slowdown times, the growth can be sustained. Am watching and buying the November 85 puts for $3.5 a piece.

Still have cash on hand... no new long picks. AM happy with my holdings for now CSCO, BRCM, GLW, OVTI, SIRF, YHOO and beaten down DHI and ETFC.

And am certainly happy I was not greedy with lofty GRMN and got out at 120 +. The stock is down 13 to 106 today- wonderful. Thought I would wait for a pull back to 110 or so to buy this one back. But its down not on profit taking, but on news so I will watch till the dust settles. Maybe one more down drift to under 100 is not ruled out. The news is- NOK buying NAVTEQ- the GPS software company. NOK growing stronger in GPS navigation on its phones... spells competition for GRMN. The fear is a bit realistic when I think GRMN provides a stand alone GPS vs. NOK and the like incorporating the navigation into the phones- if that catches on...may spell trouble for GRMN... somewhere down the line. For now am watching. If the momentum is driven out I would just move onto a better stock. This exemplifies my mantra of not being married to any stock. Got to drop it like a hot potato if the market starts losing its love for it.

Yes. Thats the game. Stay tuned... this week is emplyment numbers week so expecting back and forth below and above 14000 on the dow... easy.