Needless to say we have had a MAD market and unbelievable volatility. VIX that scared us when it was in its high 30s hovers in the 60s and actually hit an all time high of 75+ in the notorious week when the markets CRASHED last week.
500 point moves are every day attempts to confuse the players. I would say this- today dow down to 8750 looks like a buying on a dip theory. My picks are QLD (ETF for Technology) and UYM (ETF for Materials) - trading at 33 and 22 respectively. These will jump furiously when the economy starts to settle down and confidence starts trickling in...
Commodity stocks and energy have been CRUSHED and ANNIHILATED due to hedge fund selling. If the world does not come to an end, I am a buyer of some of these stocks - FCX at 34 and NUE under 30 and maybe a natural gas stock- like CHK at 16 seem cheap.
Cash is king in times such as these to take the chance to get into good solid companies with great franchises that have great balance sheets - every thing got cheaper but the survivors will make money for themselves and for you. Companies like NIKE or COKE to name two.
The dry good sector got wiped out assuming that no goods will ever move again. Remember DRYS that we traded between 50 and 120. DRYS got as low as 16 last week- trading at unheard of P/E ratios of 2 and 3 etc. Its at 20 today- wow. Nibbling for the long term may not be a bad idea. Home builders are down but not at new lows which is encouraging- maybe TOLL at 18.50 will give a good return if held for a few months- as the housing sector emerges finally after all the bailout help that comes along the way.
As the markets digest the 2500 drop in a matter of days and 1500 point recovery very quickly- for those who have cash this is a good market to buy only when there is a 500 point drop and sell when the triple digit rallies comee by- inevitably so.
Confusion becomes a weapon of stock destruction and I hope that we can find catalysts for confidence. There is no better panacea than CONFIDENCE and SENTIMENT - The media needs to bring the die-hard-OPTIMISTS on board with megaphones.... unless they all died with the catastrophe that unfolded on wall street last week.
I remain the watcher - the elephant- trading less but hoping that the world realizes that we have to wrap up our mistakes and not make any more- to open our eyes and to give each other hope that all is not dead.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Monday, October 6, 2008
BOTTOM ! MADNESS !
Putting the financial tsunami in perspective takes courage. Wall street is having a tough time figuring it out. THERE IS NO CREDIT. Commercial paper is dead? Global panacea is required at this time. AND most of all a CONFIDENCE STIMULUS if you may. Get the media to focus on analysts to come out and say IT WILL END... instead of focussing on Lehman Brothers' CEO and how unfair it was for him to have received MILLIONs for the failure eventually of LEHMAN.
I could go on about this market losing its value to not just recession fears or even depression fears but lack of confidence that things will ever emerge better. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. All indicators have been thrown out of the windows... THE FEARFUL VIXX -measure of panic is at all time highs... or so... TECHNICALS say we are way OVERSOLD. And rational thought may indicate that we are in the worst of turmoils in the financial world- what could be worse than credit is frozen- business are frozen.
The bailout packet took to long to pass- TAKE THAT say the stocks worldwide. But it did pass. So CALM DOWN I say. Looks like we wont take off- and buy stocks until there is a CO-ORDINATED move globally to CUT rates. ECB first- they are too slow, arent they? What are they thinkin with rates above 4% still. INFLATION? Dont they see OIL is not at $140 anymore and no one is predicting OIL to go to $200 anymore. I hear predictions of OIL going to $50... or in that direction, if you will. Commodity prices have been slashed -takes pressure offf inflation, one would think and release the pressure - REDUCE them rates all countries and the global effort will percolate into confidence-! Thats what markets know is good... for liquidity, for housing, for credit... low rates are good... everyone knows that. BAILOUT bills being good or not- thats uncertain -as its a FIRST... for this market to digest.
Get the jist... there's always more to be done. I suspect that markets BOTTOM- that is it- Short term bottom, mid term bottom, long term bottom... some time this week. Maybe we have turnaround TUESDAY... and all those who are waiting to GET IN... believe me theres lots of private money... and wealth ... lots in money markets... lots UNDER those mattresses... making pretty much nothing... All of that trickles into these undervalued markets- when viewed from the LONGER point view. TOUCHE.
Not many as optimistic as mona... what do I care... I started this blog- when all hell broke lose- last august- and my point is confidence is moot- then all follows. People, dont lose it... when theres not much more to be lost, theres lots to be made.
Give me a line of feedback so I know I am not alone out here....
I could go on about this market losing its value to not just recession fears or even depression fears but lack of confidence that things will ever emerge better. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. All indicators have been thrown out of the windows... THE FEARFUL VIXX -measure of panic is at all time highs... or so... TECHNICALS say we are way OVERSOLD. And rational thought may indicate that we are in the worst of turmoils in the financial world- what could be worse than credit is frozen- business are frozen.
The bailout packet took to long to pass- TAKE THAT say the stocks worldwide. But it did pass. So CALM DOWN I say. Looks like we wont take off- and buy stocks until there is a CO-ORDINATED move globally to CUT rates. ECB first- they are too slow, arent they? What are they thinkin with rates above 4% still. INFLATION? Dont they see OIL is not at $140 anymore and no one is predicting OIL to go to $200 anymore. I hear predictions of OIL going to $50... or in that direction, if you will. Commodity prices have been slashed -takes pressure offf inflation, one would think and release the pressure - REDUCE them rates all countries and the global effort will percolate into confidence-! Thats what markets know is good... for liquidity, for housing, for credit... low rates are good... everyone knows that. BAILOUT bills being good or not- thats uncertain -as its a FIRST... for this market to digest.
Get the jist... there's always more to be done. I suspect that markets BOTTOM- that is it- Short term bottom, mid term bottom, long term bottom... some time this week. Maybe we have turnaround TUESDAY... and all those who are waiting to GET IN... believe me theres lots of private money... and wealth ... lots in money markets... lots UNDER those mattresses... making pretty much nothing... All of that trickles into these undervalued markets- when viewed from the LONGER point view. TOUCHE.
Not many as optimistic as mona... what do I care... I started this blog- when all hell broke lose- last august- and my point is confidence is moot- then all follows. People, dont lose it... when theres not much more to be lost, theres lots to be made.
Give me a line of feedback so I know I am not alone out here....
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
AIG WILL NOT BE ANNIHILATED
There is too much PAIN and PANIC on wall street this week. No surprise with a mammoth failure of LEHMAN BROTHERS and AIG in an emergency vehicle heading for a lifeline- will it get it? To my mind `they' whoever they may be- FED, PRIVATE wealth owners, Sovereign FUNDs, have to, have to HELP a solvent company to remain solvent- ! The rating agencies have to, have to, have to give AIG time to sell its assets ($trillion... worth) there always is a buyer eventually- and to raise money.
The only trade I can think of is AIG at $1.5 trading at bankrupt levels- because you got to have some conviction and confidence that SANITY will prevail. The reverberations of an AIG bankruptcy all over the globe will be DEVASTATING. Mona awaits an AIG survival and the consequent reversal in the markets moves. We also await FED meeting today- and a half basis point cut ... to calm the fear and panic if not anything else.
If the crash has come in so hard- 500 pts in the DOW last afternoon and VIX shooting upto 34-35... highest level in years... we could call it CAPITULATION and one of these days STAMPEDE buying should ensue.
IF there is money on the sidelines its the smartest money and should be put to work NOW ... !
DRYS at 47, EXM at 20.5,... are trading at forward p-e of 3 or 4 I believe- assuming that global trade will STOP. Once China settles down- and starts moving goods again.... shipping rates (baltic) will pick up- and these stocks will SOAR. I also like commodities- they are failing alongwith the huge unwinding in hedge fund p'folios, I guess. FCX at 60 is VALUE, some others could be RIO at 20.5, and ALCOA. FWLT at 36 and WFR at 30 are beaten down but will reward once the market starts moving up ... when it does. COAL and Natural gas stocks are mutilated- ha, havent seen so much opportunity ... wish I had more money to put to work. DO YOU?
The only trade I can think of is AIG at $1.5 trading at bankrupt levels- because you got to have some conviction and confidence that SANITY will prevail. The reverberations of an AIG bankruptcy all over the globe will be DEVASTATING. Mona awaits an AIG survival and the consequent reversal in the markets moves. We also await FED meeting today- and a half basis point cut ... to calm the fear and panic if not anything else.
If the crash has come in so hard- 500 pts in the DOW last afternoon and VIX shooting upto 34-35... highest level in years... we could call it CAPITULATION and one of these days STAMPEDE buying should ensue.
IF there is money on the sidelines its the smartest money and should be put to work NOW ... !
DRYS at 47, EXM at 20.5,... are trading at forward p-e of 3 or 4 I believe- assuming that global trade will STOP. Once China settles down- and starts moving goods again.... shipping rates (baltic) will pick up- and these stocks will SOAR. I also like commodities- they are failing alongwith the huge unwinding in hedge fund p'folios, I guess. FCX at 60 is VALUE, some others could be RIO at 20.5, and ALCOA. FWLT at 36 and WFR at 30 are beaten down but will reward once the market starts moving up ... when it does. COAL and Natural gas stocks are mutilated- ha, havent seen so much opportunity ... wish I had more money to put to work. DO YOU?
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
GUSTAV -DOWNGRADED... Wall Street UPGRADED
Hi bulls and bears... hey do I get the feeling that I am the only one standing at this blogpost? Its been a couple of months of malaise in more ways than one but I am back to share my views.
Thats all that matters... I read a nice title the other day `STOP WHINING AND START LIVING'. Thats a good way to capture my suggestion for wall street viewers and traders and sufferers.
Its been a year since I started this blog- and pretty much the same time since the bear market began. Only difference then was we did not know we were in one but now the statisticians confirm that we are in one- what, the BEAR's clutches. BUT NOT FOR LONG...says monasmadmarket. So pay heed.
If you did not panic and sell over a longer term nothing is lost. If you had money to add to positions you may still emerge a winner. But the ones who made the most moolah are the traders who enjoyed mind blowing opportunities because they watched the market like a hawk. Well, as most of us have a life other than that we are likely to miss the timing, one would think. But it aint hard if one has patience to wait to buy low and to wait and sell high.
In my opinion the market did BOTTOM with the DOW in the sub-11000 area in July. And the bottom was retested too. There is no reason why it will not retest that level -technically they say it takes one more test when all and sundry declare we have seen the bottom.
The encouraging downfall in the price of OIL to my mind is significant. There was no doubt in my mind that oil would touch 100 before it ventured toward 200. I screamed SELL when it was close to 145 as it went up too fast and furiously without fundamental support. Either the slowdown in the world economies was not true or the oil price was not true. Turned out that oil prices had to correct, in fact, crash as the pace of rally was too FAST.
Today I guess- with the GUSTAV disappointment (sigh of relief I should say ) oil should crash and gracefully meet the 100 mark.
Whats the trade? I was waiting for oil to come down to the 90s at which time I had resolved to buy some solar names- ! Somehow solar has survived this plunge in oil prices unlike other times, and that bodes well for committing some trades to solar names. Alternative energy is a reality- unlike a decade ago when there was just talk about some such stuff as solar power. All names in solar -SPWR, STP, LDK have reported stellar numbers and growth in the next couple of years seems to be projected at great rates. SPWR may go to 140 again... once momentum picks up- its at 90- but its a bit pricey for my trading book. STP has already seen a runup from 32 to 48- in the last month. That leaves TSL -tradin at 31, still closer to the bottom... than to the top... so lets buy TSL at 31- today with an oil depression we may get it cheaper... and then we can hold on until oil settles down and reverses. YGE is my chinese play again- the trading range has been so wonderful. Got out of it in May at 28. Its 18 today- a runup to 28 again is easy. THOUGH I believe oil will trade down to the 90s, I dont believe it will stay there for long. Once it reverses, there will be a lot of short covering... as fears of oil going to 150 build up again. So at the bottom range of its trade- I would not mind an oil play- I am aiming for PBR (50s), HK (31) and a refiner -VLO (34).
Maybe some commodity plays will get crushed again- RIO (Brazil) is at its bottom around 25 -may get it cheaper today- steel demand will strengthen as worries of recessions settle down.
I am waiting for gold to come down to 750 again- AUY under 10 if I can get some.
Technology has seen some murderous action- NVDA- gosh I got that wrong. Down from mid 20s to 12.... I am a buyer right here... forget the slowdown and the estimates... 12 is too cheap for the graphics chipmaker... and its doing a BUYBACK... itself that spells conviction. Safe play in technology is GLW. Volatile play in technology can be GRMN-have to check where its trading at. If in a bull market it traded upto 120, a bear market can take it down to 30. Well it really did go into its 30s... thats how BAD its out there for LONGs. I still use my NUVI and it `recalculates' every time I make the wrong turn....on the road. Recalculating the stock prices.... of GRMN and where its going ... may not be a bad idea.
Take profits if the DOW bounces back to 12500 or so- but while it heads there enjoy the ride and make some money. Will talk of financials next time. Will need a million bytes to talk about them at length. Sufficeth to say- buying the UYG- the ULTRA exchange traded fund for finance at 21.25- with a target price of 25 some time next month. Its going to make higher highs... and lower lows... if you know what I mean.
Got to go... summing up this blog. BUY RIO(25), YGE (18),TSL (31.5), NVDA (12.75), GLW (20.5), UYG (21) and I may add some retail JWN (30) COH (29) !
Dont know where the bull or bear are but the elephant is back on wall street, thats me watching and heeding... and ready to pull the trigger... and to blog my alerts... so pay heed and be in touch. Stay in the game... however bleak it may be... it always turns around. In and out is the only way to survive.
Ahead of the post-labor day opening bell - heres 4 cheers for a triple digit move in the DOW... if momentum picks up and BULLS and BEARS rage to buy for now. The ISM data will only add to the bullishness as long as its around 50- crystal ball says it will be above 50... No ones reading anyway... so let it be written... HurricaneaHoooo... hoooo... to yohooo
Thats all that matters... I read a nice title the other day `STOP WHINING AND START LIVING'. Thats a good way to capture my suggestion for wall street viewers and traders and sufferers.
Its been a year since I started this blog- and pretty much the same time since the bear market began. Only difference then was we did not know we were in one but now the statisticians confirm that we are in one- what, the BEAR's clutches. BUT NOT FOR LONG...says monasmadmarket. So pay heed.
If you did not panic and sell over a longer term nothing is lost. If you had money to add to positions you may still emerge a winner. But the ones who made the most moolah are the traders who enjoyed mind blowing opportunities because they watched the market like a hawk. Well, as most of us have a life other than that we are likely to miss the timing, one would think. But it aint hard if one has patience to wait to buy low and to wait and sell high.
In my opinion the market did BOTTOM with the DOW in the sub-11000 area in July. And the bottom was retested too. There is no reason why it will not retest that level -technically they say it takes one more test when all and sundry declare we have seen the bottom.
The encouraging downfall in the price of OIL to my mind is significant. There was no doubt in my mind that oil would touch 100 before it ventured toward 200. I screamed SELL when it was close to 145 as it went up too fast and furiously without fundamental support. Either the slowdown in the world economies was not true or the oil price was not true. Turned out that oil prices had to correct, in fact, crash as the pace of rally was too FAST.
Today I guess- with the GUSTAV disappointment (sigh of relief I should say ) oil should crash and gracefully meet the 100 mark.
Whats the trade? I was waiting for oil to come down to the 90s at which time I had resolved to buy some solar names- ! Somehow solar has survived this plunge in oil prices unlike other times, and that bodes well for committing some trades to solar names. Alternative energy is a reality- unlike a decade ago when there was just talk about some such stuff as solar power. All names in solar -SPWR, STP, LDK have reported stellar numbers and growth in the next couple of years seems to be projected at great rates. SPWR may go to 140 again... once momentum picks up- its at 90- but its a bit pricey for my trading book. STP has already seen a runup from 32 to 48- in the last month. That leaves TSL -tradin at 31, still closer to the bottom... than to the top... so lets buy TSL at 31- today with an oil depression we may get it cheaper... and then we can hold on until oil settles down and reverses. YGE is my chinese play again- the trading range has been so wonderful. Got out of it in May at 28. Its 18 today- a runup to 28 again is easy. THOUGH I believe oil will trade down to the 90s, I dont believe it will stay there for long. Once it reverses, there will be a lot of short covering... as fears of oil going to 150 build up again. So at the bottom range of its trade- I would not mind an oil play- I am aiming for PBR (50s), HK (31) and a refiner -VLO (34).
Maybe some commodity plays will get crushed again- RIO (Brazil) is at its bottom around 25 -may get it cheaper today- steel demand will strengthen as worries of recessions settle down.
I am waiting for gold to come down to 750 again- AUY under 10 if I can get some.
Technology has seen some murderous action- NVDA- gosh I got that wrong. Down from mid 20s to 12.... I am a buyer right here... forget the slowdown and the estimates... 12 is too cheap for the graphics chipmaker... and its doing a BUYBACK... itself that spells conviction. Safe play in technology is GLW. Volatile play in technology can be GRMN-have to check where its trading at. If in a bull market it traded upto 120, a bear market can take it down to 30. Well it really did go into its 30s... thats how BAD its out there for LONGs. I still use my NUVI and it `recalculates' every time I make the wrong turn....on the road. Recalculating the stock prices.... of GRMN and where its going ... may not be a bad idea.
Take profits if the DOW bounces back to 12500 or so- but while it heads there enjoy the ride and make some money. Will talk of financials next time. Will need a million bytes to talk about them at length. Sufficeth to say- buying the UYG- the ULTRA exchange traded fund for finance at 21.25- with a target price of 25 some time next month. Its going to make higher highs... and lower lows... if you know what I mean.
Got to go... summing up this blog. BUY RIO(25), YGE (18),TSL (31.5), NVDA (12.75), GLW (20.5), UYG (21) and I may add some retail JWN (30) COH (29) !
Dont know where the bull or bear are but the elephant is back on wall street, thats me watching and heeding... and ready to pull the trigger... and to blog my alerts... so pay heed and be in touch. Stay in the game... however bleak it may be... it always turns around. In and out is the only way to survive.
Ahead of the post-labor day opening bell - heres 4 cheers for a triple digit move in the DOW... if momentum picks up and BULLS and BEARS rage to buy for now. The ISM data will only add to the bullishness as long as its around 50- crystal ball says it will be above 50... No ones reading anyway... so let it be written... HurricaneaHoooo... hoooo... to yohooo
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
SELL-OFF too soon...
Sell sell sell was yesterday's game. Today looks like we could nibble on some stocks for a quick buck.
Financials have given up most of their gains. Citi bottomed at 18 earlier this year. Ran upto 27... and now is trading at 22.50 or so- technically this looks like a good trade right here. 22.30 right now and I am a buyer for a quick trade when financials rally again- soon.
Technology is getting crushed with SNDK's gloomy outlook- recession is priced in, consumer is dead etc. BRCM that we sold yesterday at 29 is 26 today- unbelievable moves. At 26 looks good to add some. And some more if it falls more after HP's earnings come out this evening. The longer term trend methinks will be up though it may be slow and steady. When the market does hiccup as its doing very nicely today buying is a good idea. Am also adding NVDA- graphics chip maker- down from 25 to 23 in two days. And EMC looks good at 17.35 today.
Solarfun did not disappoint and is holding onto its stellar run from 18 to 25... once the market settles down- solar names will rally again. Am not buying new names here but will look for a rally to sell those that I own. Lookin for YGE 28 and STP 50 to sell them and wrap up my solar play until oil prices decide to come down- that will inevitably happen- as theres too much speculation in that price- is my opinion.
ABX (gold) was very timely as we got in yesterday at 40. ITs up today to 42 and change... my target price is 45.
Late day rally may or may not happen- but am positive that the market will rebound this week as profit taking ceases and bargain hunting begins.
Hang in there... opportunities to buy and sell keep comin our way and being on the right side of the trade is the mantra.
Financials have given up most of their gains. Citi bottomed at 18 earlier this year. Ran upto 27... and now is trading at 22.50 or so- technically this looks like a good trade right here. 22.30 right now and I am a buyer for a quick trade when financials rally again- soon.
Technology is getting crushed with SNDK's gloomy outlook- recession is priced in, consumer is dead etc. BRCM that we sold yesterday at 29 is 26 today- unbelievable moves. At 26 looks good to add some. And some more if it falls more after HP's earnings come out this evening. The longer term trend methinks will be up though it may be slow and steady. When the market does hiccup as its doing very nicely today buying is a good idea. Am also adding NVDA- graphics chip maker- down from 25 to 23 in two days. And EMC looks good at 17.35 today.
Solarfun did not disappoint and is holding onto its stellar run from 18 to 25... once the market settles down- solar names will rally again. Am not buying new names here but will look for a rally to sell those that I own. Lookin for YGE 28 and STP 50 to sell them and wrap up my solar play until oil prices decide to come down- that will inevitably happen- as theres too much speculation in that price- is my opinion.
ABX (gold) was very timely as we got in yesterday at 40. ITs up today to 42 and change... my target price is 45.
Late day rally may or may not happen- but am positive that the market will rebound this week as profit taking ceases and bargain hunting begins.
Hang in there... opportunities to buy and sell keep comin our way and being on the right side of the trade is the mantra.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
BEEN a LONG WAIT...DOW 13000... S&P 1425...
Well... I am back. And yalahooo to everybody. - Dow 13000 and S&P 1425... and I hear the bull panting and tired... but I also perceive that the bear has sort of given up the chase... and is busy covering its hide...
So its hello again from mona - who has been away from the blog but not away from the markets mad movements. Before we get tricked into thinking this time its for real... and adapt a buy and hold policy.... I would shout `beware'...! In tune with our trading strategy... its sell on the rips and this week after a brief breakout there will be dips to follow and take advantage of. So if you have been a buyer of stocks... lighten up before your target prices show up... ! As the DOW reaches 13200... and the S&P 1450... I whisper SELL SELL SELL! And then wait and watch for panic and blood on the street again- it is inevitable- as a subprime credit crisis as HUGE as the one U.S. witnessed will not die overnight... there will be more write downs and bankruptcies.... and every time there will be a sell -off - ... but the only difference is the money on the sidelines has started working and so we can expect rallies to follow the sell offs. To buy on the sell off and sell on the rally will make your money more money- than holding on can.
So its hello again from mona - who has been away from the blog but not away from the markets mad movements. Before we get tricked into thinking this time its for real... and adapt a buy and hold policy.... I would shout `beware'...! In tune with our trading strategy... its sell on the rips and this week after a brief breakout there will be dips to follow and take advantage of. So if you have been a buyer of stocks... lighten up before your target prices show up... ! As the DOW reaches 13200... and the S&P 1450... I whisper SELL SELL SELL! And then wait and watch for panic and blood on the street again- it is inevitable- as a subprime credit crisis as HUGE as the one U.S. witnessed will not die overnight... there will be more write downs and bankruptcies.... and every time there will be a sell -off - ... but the only difference is the money on the sidelines has started working and so we can expect rallies to follow the sell offs. To buy on the sell off and sell on the rally will make your money more money- than holding on can.
About my precious picks- the last blog I notice mentioned buying DRYS at 59! That was the one stock worth holding on till today at least if not for longer. Earnings were out this evening and they handily beat estimates. ITs trading at 108 after hours after briefly touching 116 during the day. I am a seller tonite or tomorrow. Anything above 100 is a great move by all means -a double in less than 2 months. Thank you.
Other picks- today was a good day to sell some of the technology names- BRCM and INTC have had good runs. SNDK warned and so that will ruin the mood though most stocks look like good holds... a better day may give better prices. Raising cash is a good idea at this juncture.
While I was away I picked a few outtacountry stocks- CX (Brazil- construction story though it has global exposure)at 28 and NOK (no need to introduce this one) also at 28- its been badly beaten for no real reason cept that the competition is making too much noise on wall street- namely- RIMM and AAPL etc. I also liked TRN at 30 and SGR at 50 and bought them a few weeks ago. TRN is a railroad play- with paws in the `wind' energy sector. Am holding on for some more weeks- as these have broken out. TRN is at 37 and change and SGR will sell in the mid 60s if it reaches out some time this week.
Last but not the least the solar names have made us some mad money. YGE bottomed at 15 and and STP at 28 and SPWR at 55 -these were great picks as they bottomed... though thats the toughest time to buy em.
I am looking back at my blog and am reinforcing the theory that fear is the last thing that works in this volatile market. If we keep the emotions and the `what-if' doomsday predictions out and watch and wait patiently for the panic days we can accumulate great bargains in the market and then hold on for great gains.
Buyer beware but the worst seems to be over.
Picks today- I am lookin at some stocks that seem to have hit the bottom but have not really rallied- those are safer bets than the ones that have already made their moves. BID (Sothebys) at 27 looks like a steal- ready to rally- the bull on this one seems to be just getting its right foot a-tither... watch out... he sees red. My target price is 35.
And a gold stock won't harm while gold is still at 900... so I am picking ABX at 40.
Lastly can not let OIL get away without a word. I thought it would peak around 115- and speculation would take it upto 120 or so- was wrong. But I am a buyer of an ultrashort ETF called DUG- at 26.5 today... has fallen from heights of 58- well its been trading around mid 30s when oil was at 100. So am thinkin if oil does roll over before it ascends again this will give us a good trade. Target selling price will be when oil comes down to 110- wherever DUG trades at that time- say, 33 or so. If oil does not roll over we have to hedge our bet. So am buying some CHK (a natural gas play with the $OLID backing of the CEO who has purchased millions of shares in the last year)- will buy around 56 if I get them. Solar stocks are also a hedge against the ultra short oil play.
Meanwhile am waiting for SOLARFUN earnings tonite that decides the fate of the solar sentiment for this week. Its run up from 17 to 25 already- and looks like ready to run up to 30 if all goes well. Am not into this one but it may help nudge my solar stocks- YGE and STP ahead. Am in at 19 and 38... and holding onto solid gains bravely but will sell soon.
Welcome back to monasmadmarket where we watch, we wait and then we win and we keep fear and greed outta here. So friends, sell the winners- as some one dear to me suggested- sell half the position at least so that you dont lose it all when the prices start stumbling...
Yalahoo... SOLAhoo...till tomorrow...
Friday, March 14, 2008
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST....
Hiya everyone who missed reading my blog. I am back after a long sojourn -did the virus get me or was it the bear:?
It is indeed dangerous to kid yourself that being long this market is without worry- or consequence. Financials will eventually settle down as all the losses are taken and all the bad ones bailed out. But who's to tell which are the good ones? Bear Stearns is the latest one in disaster zone- calling for funds from JP Morgan and the Fed is bravely going to help them. A crisis more deeper than this where the Fed has to be in front of every victim... I cannot fathom.
Everyone's a victim if he is long this market. The jaws of the bear are too wide for comfort but its still a traders market if you have capital to play with. Instead of wondering who will succumb next or who will save the day- watching the price action in stocks that are `decoupled' say an international stock or one less exposed to finance.... can help to stay in the game.
Being all cash in such a market which can recover in a second any day- is also foolish- so in that case keeping a long term horizon makes sense.
I am lookin at technology for long term- like CSCO, EMC, INTC, NVDA. And refiners -VLO and TSO -at 52 week lows- as they are suffering with the hike in oil prices- once oil settles down to peaking out somewhere in the $110-115.... (we hope) refiners will come back. VLO we bought at 49 and sold at 60 in the last run. It did go upto 63- at which time I did not think it would revisit 49 again. Well, we could do it again. Its at 48.50 -and I am a buyer today.
AM also going with LOWES at 20.75- and INFY at 34 and ICICI bank- IBN at 40. Downside looks like LOW 20, INFY 32, IBN 36! Got to buy on dips and sell on rallies- thats the only way to go. The market is not far from the bottom- I thought it bottomed last week. Maybe it does next week- but the ones on the sidelines will come in- once the fear is out. Patience is a virtue though it sucks sometimes!
Cheers. Lets vote for a DOW down double digits - after a horrendous start- of down 300 points. Its still down 270 at 3pm and I am brave to ask for so much- but it has happened before.
Last but not the least- remember the dry goods sector- where we caught DRYS at 50 before anyone else. It went as high as 88 - before the market stumbled again. And its down to 60- second chances like these are great opportunities and dont come often. Got some DRYS at 59 today. Good luck... all. And welcome back to monas blog and remember panic selling never made anyone any money- because getting back in is tricky to say the least. When you sell at lows- and the market starts to recover you may buy back at higher prices and then not sell and go down once more- its a nasty cycle- so its better to hang in there in troubled times and wait for your prices.
It is indeed dangerous to kid yourself that being long this market is without worry- or consequence. Financials will eventually settle down as all the losses are taken and all the bad ones bailed out. But who's to tell which are the good ones? Bear Stearns is the latest one in disaster zone- calling for funds from JP Morgan and the Fed is bravely going to help them. A crisis more deeper than this where the Fed has to be in front of every victim... I cannot fathom.
Everyone's a victim if he is long this market. The jaws of the bear are too wide for comfort but its still a traders market if you have capital to play with. Instead of wondering who will succumb next or who will save the day- watching the price action in stocks that are `decoupled' say an international stock or one less exposed to finance.... can help to stay in the game.
Being all cash in such a market which can recover in a second any day- is also foolish- so in that case keeping a long term horizon makes sense.
I am lookin at technology for long term- like CSCO, EMC, INTC, NVDA. And refiners -VLO and TSO -at 52 week lows- as they are suffering with the hike in oil prices- once oil settles down to peaking out somewhere in the $110-115.... (we hope) refiners will come back. VLO we bought at 49 and sold at 60 in the last run. It did go upto 63- at which time I did not think it would revisit 49 again. Well, we could do it again. Its at 48.50 -and I am a buyer today.
AM also going with LOWES at 20.75- and INFY at 34 and ICICI bank- IBN at 40. Downside looks like LOW 20, INFY 32, IBN 36! Got to buy on dips and sell on rallies- thats the only way to go. The market is not far from the bottom- I thought it bottomed last week. Maybe it does next week- but the ones on the sidelines will come in- once the fear is out. Patience is a virtue though it sucks sometimes!
Cheers. Lets vote for a DOW down double digits - after a horrendous start- of down 300 points. Its still down 270 at 3pm and I am brave to ask for so much- but it has happened before.
Last but not the least- remember the dry goods sector- where we caught DRYS at 50 before anyone else. It went as high as 88 - before the market stumbled again. And its down to 60- second chances like these are great opportunities and dont come often. Got some DRYS at 59 today. Good luck... all. And welcome back to monas blog and remember panic selling never made anyone any money- because getting back in is tricky to say the least. When you sell at lows- and the market starts to recover you may buy back at higher prices and then not sell and go down once more- its a nasty cycle- so its better to hang in there in troubled times and wait for your prices.
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