BUY ON DIPS

Needless to say we have had a MAD market and unbelievable volatility. VIX that scared us when it was in its high 30s hovers in the 60s and actually hit an all time high of 75+ in the notorious week when the markets CRASHED last week.

500 point moves are every day attempts to confuse the players. I would say this- today dow down to 8750 looks like a buying on a dip theory. My picks are QLD (ETF for Technology) and UYM (ETF for Materials) - trading at 33 and 22 respectively. These will jump furiously when the economy starts to settle down and confidence starts trickling in...

Commodity stocks and energy have been CRUSHED and ANNIHILATED due to hedge fund selling. If the world does not come to an end, I am a buyer of some of these stocks - FCX at 34 and NUE under 30 and maybe a natural gas stock- like CHK at 16 seem cheap.

Cash is king in times such as these to take the chance to get into good solid companies with great franchises that have great balance sheets - every thing got cheaper but the survivors will make money for themselves and for you. Companies like NIKE or COKE to name two.

The dry good sector got wiped out assuming that no goods will ever move again. Remember DRYS that we traded between 50 and 120. DRYS got as low as 16 last week- trading at unheard of P/E ratios of 2 and 3 etc. Its at 20 today- wow. Nibbling for the long term may not be a bad idea. Home builders are down but not at new lows which is encouraging- maybe TOLL at 18.50 will give a good return if held for a few months- as the housing sector emerges finally after all the bailout help that comes along the way.

As the markets digest the 2500 drop in a matter of days and 1500 point recovery very quickly- for those who have cash this is a good market to buy only when there is a 500 point drop and sell when the triple digit rallies comee by- inevitably so.

Confusion becomes a weapon of stock destruction and I hope that we can find catalysts for confidence. There is no better panacea than CONFIDENCE and SENTIMENT - The media needs to bring the die-hard-OPTIMISTS on board with megaphones.... unless they all died with the catastrophe that unfolded on wall street last week.

I remain the watcher - the elephant- trading less but hoping that the world realizes that we have to wrap up our mistakes and not make any more- to open our eyes and to give each other hope that all is not dead.

BOTTOM ! MADNESS !

Putting the financial tsunami in perspective takes courage. Wall street is having a tough time figuring it out. THERE IS NO CREDIT. Commercial paper is dead? Global panacea is required at this time. AND most of all a CONFIDENCE STIMULUS if you may. Get the media to focus on analysts to come out and say IT WILL END... instead of focussing on Lehman Brothers' CEO and how unfair it was for him to have received MILLIONs for the failure eventually of LEHMAN.

I could go on about this market losing its value to not just recession fears or even depression fears but lack of confidence that things will ever emerge better. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. All indicators have been thrown out of the windows... THE FEARFUL VIXX -measure of panic is at all time highs... or so... TECHNICALS say we are way OVERSOLD. And rational thought may indicate that we are in the worst of turmoils in the financial world- what could be worse than credit is frozen- business are frozen.

The bailout packet took to long to pass- TAKE THAT say the stocks worldwide. But it did pass. So CALM DOWN I say. Looks like we wont take off- and buy stocks until there is a CO-ORDINATED move globally to CUT rates. ECB first- they are too slow, arent they? What are they thinkin with rates above 4% still. INFLATION? Dont they see OIL is not at $140 anymore and no one is predicting OIL to go to $200 anymore. I hear predictions of OIL going to $50... or in that direction, if you will. Commodity prices have been slashed -takes pressure offf inflation, one would think and release the pressure - REDUCE them rates all countries and the global effort will percolate into confidence-! Thats what markets know is good... for liquidity, for housing, for credit... low rates are good... everyone knows that. BAILOUT bills being good or not- thats uncertain -as its a FIRST... for this market to digest.

Get the jist... there's always more to be done. I suspect that markets BOTTOM- that is it- Short term bottom, mid term bottom, long term bottom... some time this week. Maybe we have turnaround TUESDAY... and all those who are waiting to GET IN... believe me theres lots of private money... and wealth ... lots in money markets... lots UNDER those mattresses... making pretty much nothing... All of that trickles into these undervalued markets- when viewed from the LONGER point view. TOUCHE.

Not many as optimistic as mona... what do I care... I started this blog- when all hell broke lose- last august- and my point is confidence is moot- then all follows. People, dont lose it... when theres not much more to be lost, theres lots to be made.

Give me a line of feedback so I know I am not alone out here....