There is too much PAIN and PANIC on wall street this week. No surprise with a mammoth failure of LEHMAN BROTHERS and AIG in an emergency vehicle heading for a lifeline- will it get it? To my mind `they' whoever they may be- FED, PRIVATE wealth owners, Sovereign FUNDs, have to, have to HELP a solvent company to remain solvent- ! The rating agencies have to, have to, have to give AIG time to sell its assets ($trillion... worth) there always is a buyer eventually- and to raise money.
The only trade I can think of is AIG at $1.5 trading at bankrupt levels- because you got to have some conviction and confidence that SANITY will prevail. The reverberations of an AIG bankruptcy all over the globe will be DEVASTATING. Mona awaits an AIG survival and the consequent reversal in the markets moves. We also await FED meeting today- and a half basis point cut ... to calm the fear and panic if not anything else.
If the crash has come in so hard- 500 pts in the DOW last afternoon and VIX shooting upto 34-35... highest level in years... we could call it CAPITULATION and one of these days STAMPEDE buying should ensue.
IF there is money on the sidelines its the smartest money and should be put to work NOW ... !
DRYS at 47, EXM at 20.5,... are trading at forward p-e of 3 or 4 I believe- assuming that global trade will STOP. Once China settles down- and starts moving goods again.... shipping rates (baltic) will pick up- and these stocks will SOAR. I also like commodities- they are failing alongwith the huge unwinding in hedge fund p'folios, I guess. FCX at 60 is VALUE, some others could be RIO at 20.5, and ALCOA. FWLT at 36 and WFR at 30 are beaten down but will reward once the market starts moving up ... when it does. COAL and Natural gas stocks are mutilated- ha, havent seen so much opportunity ... wish I had more money to put to work. DO YOU?
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
GUSTAV -DOWNGRADED... Wall Street UPGRADED
Hi bulls and bears... hey do I get the feeling that I am the only one standing at this blogpost? Its been a couple of months of malaise in more ways than one but I am back to share my views.
Thats all that matters... I read a nice title the other day `STOP WHINING AND START LIVING'. Thats a good way to capture my suggestion for wall street viewers and traders and sufferers.
Its been a year since I started this blog- and pretty much the same time since the bear market began. Only difference then was we did not know we were in one but now the statisticians confirm that we are in one- what, the BEAR's clutches. BUT NOT FOR LONG...says monasmadmarket. So pay heed.
If you did not panic and sell over a longer term nothing is lost. If you had money to add to positions you may still emerge a winner. But the ones who made the most moolah are the traders who enjoyed mind blowing opportunities because they watched the market like a hawk. Well, as most of us have a life other than that we are likely to miss the timing, one would think. But it aint hard if one has patience to wait to buy low and to wait and sell high.
In my opinion the market did BOTTOM with the DOW in the sub-11000 area in July. And the bottom was retested too. There is no reason why it will not retest that level -technically they say it takes one more test when all and sundry declare we have seen the bottom.
The encouraging downfall in the price of OIL to my mind is significant. There was no doubt in my mind that oil would touch 100 before it ventured toward 200. I screamed SELL when it was close to 145 as it went up too fast and furiously without fundamental support. Either the slowdown in the world economies was not true or the oil price was not true. Turned out that oil prices had to correct, in fact, crash as the pace of rally was too FAST.
Today I guess- with the GUSTAV disappointment (sigh of relief I should say ) oil should crash and gracefully meet the 100 mark.
Whats the trade? I was waiting for oil to come down to the 90s at which time I had resolved to buy some solar names- ! Somehow solar has survived this plunge in oil prices unlike other times, and that bodes well for committing some trades to solar names. Alternative energy is a reality- unlike a decade ago when there was just talk about some such stuff as solar power. All names in solar -SPWR, STP, LDK have reported stellar numbers and growth in the next couple of years seems to be projected at great rates. SPWR may go to 140 again... once momentum picks up- its at 90- but its a bit pricey for my trading book. STP has already seen a runup from 32 to 48- in the last month. That leaves TSL -tradin at 31, still closer to the bottom... than to the top... so lets buy TSL at 31- today with an oil depression we may get it cheaper... and then we can hold on until oil settles down and reverses. YGE is my chinese play again- the trading range has been so wonderful. Got out of it in May at 28. Its 18 today- a runup to 28 again is easy. THOUGH I believe oil will trade down to the 90s, I dont believe it will stay there for long. Once it reverses, there will be a lot of short covering... as fears of oil going to 150 build up again. So at the bottom range of its trade- I would not mind an oil play- I am aiming for PBR (50s), HK (31) and a refiner -VLO (34).
Maybe some commodity plays will get crushed again- RIO (Brazil) is at its bottom around 25 -may get it cheaper today- steel demand will strengthen as worries of recessions settle down.
I am waiting for gold to come down to 750 again- AUY under 10 if I can get some.
Technology has seen some murderous action- NVDA- gosh I got that wrong. Down from mid 20s to 12.... I am a buyer right here... forget the slowdown and the estimates... 12 is too cheap for the graphics chipmaker... and its doing a BUYBACK... itself that spells conviction. Safe play in technology is GLW. Volatile play in technology can be GRMN-have to check where its trading at. If in a bull market it traded upto 120, a bear market can take it down to 30. Well it really did go into its 30s... thats how BAD its out there for LONGs. I still use my NUVI and it `recalculates' every time I make the wrong turn....on the road. Recalculating the stock prices.... of GRMN and where its going ... may not be a bad idea.
Take profits if the DOW bounces back to 12500 or so- but while it heads there enjoy the ride and make some money. Will talk of financials next time. Will need a million bytes to talk about them at length. Sufficeth to say- buying the UYG- the ULTRA exchange traded fund for finance at 21.25- with a target price of 25 some time next month. Its going to make higher highs... and lower lows... if you know what I mean.
Got to go... summing up this blog. BUY RIO(25), YGE (18),TSL (31.5), NVDA (12.75), GLW (20.5), UYG (21) and I may add some retail JWN (30) COH (29) !
Dont know where the bull or bear are but the elephant is back on wall street, thats me watching and heeding... and ready to pull the trigger... and to blog my alerts... so pay heed and be in touch. Stay in the game... however bleak it may be... it always turns around. In and out is the only way to survive.
Ahead of the post-labor day opening bell - heres 4 cheers for a triple digit move in the DOW... if momentum picks up and BULLS and BEARS rage to buy for now. The ISM data will only add to the bullishness as long as its around 50- crystal ball says it will be above 50... No ones reading anyway... so let it be written... HurricaneaHoooo... hoooo... to yohooo
Thats all that matters... I read a nice title the other day `STOP WHINING AND START LIVING'. Thats a good way to capture my suggestion for wall street viewers and traders and sufferers.
Its been a year since I started this blog- and pretty much the same time since the bear market began. Only difference then was we did not know we were in one but now the statisticians confirm that we are in one- what, the BEAR's clutches. BUT NOT FOR LONG...says monasmadmarket. So pay heed.
If you did not panic and sell over a longer term nothing is lost. If you had money to add to positions you may still emerge a winner. But the ones who made the most moolah are the traders who enjoyed mind blowing opportunities because they watched the market like a hawk. Well, as most of us have a life other than that we are likely to miss the timing, one would think. But it aint hard if one has patience to wait to buy low and to wait and sell high.
In my opinion the market did BOTTOM with the DOW in the sub-11000 area in July. And the bottom was retested too. There is no reason why it will not retest that level -technically they say it takes one more test when all and sundry declare we have seen the bottom.
The encouraging downfall in the price of OIL to my mind is significant. There was no doubt in my mind that oil would touch 100 before it ventured toward 200. I screamed SELL when it was close to 145 as it went up too fast and furiously without fundamental support. Either the slowdown in the world economies was not true or the oil price was not true. Turned out that oil prices had to correct, in fact, crash as the pace of rally was too FAST.
Today I guess- with the GUSTAV disappointment (sigh of relief I should say ) oil should crash and gracefully meet the 100 mark.
Whats the trade? I was waiting for oil to come down to the 90s at which time I had resolved to buy some solar names- ! Somehow solar has survived this plunge in oil prices unlike other times, and that bodes well for committing some trades to solar names. Alternative energy is a reality- unlike a decade ago when there was just talk about some such stuff as solar power. All names in solar -SPWR, STP, LDK have reported stellar numbers and growth in the next couple of years seems to be projected at great rates. SPWR may go to 140 again... once momentum picks up- its at 90- but its a bit pricey for my trading book. STP has already seen a runup from 32 to 48- in the last month. That leaves TSL -tradin at 31, still closer to the bottom... than to the top... so lets buy TSL at 31- today with an oil depression we may get it cheaper... and then we can hold on until oil settles down and reverses. YGE is my chinese play again- the trading range has been so wonderful. Got out of it in May at 28. Its 18 today- a runup to 28 again is easy. THOUGH I believe oil will trade down to the 90s, I dont believe it will stay there for long. Once it reverses, there will be a lot of short covering... as fears of oil going to 150 build up again. So at the bottom range of its trade- I would not mind an oil play- I am aiming for PBR (50s), HK (31) and a refiner -VLO (34).
Maybe some commodity plays will get crushed again- RIO (Brazil) is at its bottom around 25 -may get it cheaper today- steel demand will strengthen as worries of recessions settle down.
I am waiting for gold to come down to 750 again- AUY under 10 if I can get some.
Technology has seen some murderous action- NVDA- gosh I got that wrong. Down from mid 20s to 12.... I am a buyer right here... forget the slowdown and the estimates... 12 is too cheap for the graphics chipmaker... and its doing a BUYBACK... itself that spells conviction. Safe play in technology is GLW. Volatile play in technology can be GRMN-have to check where its trading at. If in a bull market it traded upto 120, a bear market can take it down to 30. Well it really did go into its 30s... thats how BAD its out there for LONGs. I still use my NUVI and it `recalculates' every time I make the wrong turn....on the road. Recalculating the stock prices.... of GRMN and where its going ... may not be a bad idea.
Take profits if the DOW bounces back to 12500 or so- but while it heads there enjoy the ride and make some money. Will talk of financials next time. Will need a million bytes to talk about them at length. Sufficeth to say- buying the UYG- the ULTRA exchange traded fund for finance at 21.25- with a target price of 25 some time next month. Its going to make higher highs... and lower lows... if you know what I mean.
Got to go... summing up this blog. BUY RIO(25), YGE (18),TSL (31.5), NVDA (12.75), GLW (20.5), UYG (21) and I may add some retail JWN (30) COH (29) !
Dont know where the bull or bear are but the elephant is back on wall street, thats me watching and heeding... and ready to pull the trigger... and to blog my alerts... so pay heed and be in touch. Stay in the game... however bleak it may be... it always turns around. In and out is the only way to survive.
Ahead of the post-labor day opening bell - heres 4 cheers for a triple digit move in the DOW... if momentum picks up and BULLS and BEARS rage to buy for now. The ISM data will only add to the bullishness as long as its around 50- crystal ball says it will be above 50... No ones reading anyway... so let it be written... HurricaneaHoooo... hoooo... to yohooo
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