This week as I said was a downer- the rally from the lows occured too fast- people including us at monas blog- took profits. AKAM from 26 to 33- sold them today- though I think holding on will be profitable, the markets do give us a chance to buy lower. CTSH in at 26- sold at 32 this morning- up 4 bucks on good earnings- which stock is up after earnings? Had to sell even though this one looks good long term. VMW from 54 to 61- am going to hold on as this one was badly beaten down- and is still wobbling trying to find a foothold- somewhere around 65-68 we may sell them. We got a chance to buy VLO again around 55 and change yesterday- was a windfall buy- as its already close to 59. Will easily trade upto low 60s next week. I also like MRO- marathon oil. VLO and MRO are refiners. They are down alongwith the market and also as crude oil is up a lot in the last couple of months that does not bode too well for refiners as their raw material cost -crude oil eats into margins. To my mind oil stabilizes here or may even fall a bit amid recession fears- and these are two low p/e stocks badly beaten down -worth buyin for a trade. For longer term as well- biggest bottleneck in the oil industry being refining capacity- these companies will do well until more capacity comes by.
Citigroup- I was waiting for a pullback to 26- that happened today- am buying at 25.75- for a trade upto 29 - once the financial messes settle down once again. Today financials are down again on fears of no bailout plan for bond insurers. Once we get clarity on that front- financials go up again. Tis great to catch these swing trades if you are on the right side of them.
Homebuilders are down too- its profit taking- as they had a huge runup in january. I am buying DHI at 13.75- ITs run up from 11 to 17 and change- is down to 13.75 today- will get a trade out of that one.
EMC has no reason to be trading at 15 and change- this one got pulled down with the VMW earnings- ! VMW recovered from 55 to 61- but emc is trading even lower from 16 where it was on the day VMW reported earnings. EMC itself reported good numbers- and looks like its bottoming out at 15. We are in at 15.20!
Those are a lot of trades from mona's market- am lookin for a recovery in the markets next week- if not before close this evening. Dont fret the volatility- take heed and play the game. :)
Friday, February 8, 2008
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY...IN STOCKS
DOW DOWN 300 points on the ISM data- this was expected but the market is swoooning pretty badly today. Recession I thought was priced in. Last week on weak data the market rallied- the jobs growth was negative. The market rallied because the fed is ahead of the curve- cutting rates ferociously already. So this week by the same logic we should ignore bad data. But we are in panic mode again.
To my mind, buy again- Citigroup rebounded to 29.75 last week- is down to 27.25- today - longer term the recovery will take it much higher. Downside looks like 26 to me. Retail stocks rallied way ahead of the market in the last two weeks- all of em are down today. I am looking at Coach again at 30 and KSS (Kohls) at 43.50.
This week maybe technology bottoms out finally- with CSCO reporting on Wednesday. Lets hope John Chambers saves the tech sector- but even if he doesnt I dont think there is not much downside. CSCO at 23 looks cheap. BUT ahead of the earnings its tough buyin any stock today.
I had a bad stock pick- got to talk of the losers too. ITS SIRF- they took it somewhere and annihilated, mutilated, crushed it= down 8 bucks from its lows of 16!!! It missed and guided lower- I guess I got this one wrong, I should apologize for screamin a buy for SIRF. I still think the business is growing- the management screwed up by not fessing up ahead of the earnings- product mix is shifting and theres confusion about its numbers going forward. Competition is eating its margins a bit- as well. I guess BRCM is a safer play- dont think they hammer it down 50% in a day after being at a low of 22. Maybe I would not sell SIRF under 8- but watch for an aquirer to come in - its trading at attractive valuations to say the least-and on the day the market decides to literally KILL it, panic selling can cost you when it does recover! But that was a big ouch!
New picks I am looking at ACM- an infrastructure pick- at 25-looks like a buy. JEC we bought at 73 or so last week. Sold them at 80 yesterday and its down to 75 again. Am a nibbler. VLO we had a good ride from 49 to 60- Its down to 57- am watching for 55. Alcoa looks like a buy at 32.5- !
I am not expecting a rally into the close like other times- as this week brings- more news- and maybe the market bottoms out again- sometime thursday- thats the day when the European central bank meets- will they lower rates as well. That could be a positive.
We have to celebrate the great comeback the market had in the last two weeks- and not sulk when its down so much- just go ahead and buy as buying low and selling high is the only name of the game.
To my mind, buy again- Citigroup rebounded to 29.75 last week- is down to 27.25- today - longer term the recovery will take it much higher. Downside looks like 26 to me. Retail stocks rallied way ahead of the market in the last two weeks- all of em are down today. I am looking at Coach again at 30 and KSS (Kohls) at 43.50.
This week maybe technology bottoms out finally- with CSCO reporting on Wednesday. Lets hope John Chambers saves the tech sector- but even if he doesnt I dont think there is not much downside. CSCO at 23 looks cheap. BUT ahead of the earnings its tough buyin any stock today.
I had a bad stock pick- got to talk of the losers too. ITS SIRF- they took it somewhere and annihilated, mutilated, crushed it= down 8 bucks from its lows of 16!!! It missed and guided lower- I guess I got this one wrong, I should apologize for screamin a buy for SIRF. I still think the business is growing- the management screwed up by not fessing up ahead of the earnings- product mix is shifting and theres confusion about its numbers going forward. Competition is eating its margins a bit- as well. I guess BRCM is a safer play- dont think they hammer it down 50% in a day after being at a low of 22. Maybe I would not sell SIRF under 8- but watch for an aquirer to come in - its trading at attractive valuations to say the least-and on the day the market decides to literally KILL it, panic selling can cost you when it does recover! But that was a big ouch!
New picks I am looking at ACM- an infrastructure pick- at 25-looks like a buy. JEC we bought at 73 or so last week. Sold them at 80 yesterday and its down to 75 again. Am a nibbler. VLO we had a good ride from 49 to 60- Its down to 57- am watching for 55. Alcoa looks like a buy at 32.5- !
I am not expecting a rally into the close like other times- as this week brings- more news- and maybe the market bottoms out again- sometime thursday- thats the day when the European central bank meets- will they lower rates as well. That could be a positive.
We have to celebrate the great comeback the market had in the last two weeks- and not sulk when its down so much- just go ahead and buy as buying low and selling high is the only name of the game.
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