Believe it or not, Santa visited us last week- did he get his timing wrong? Santa Claus rally is meant to be between December 26 and 31. But he too decided to do it early. To my mind a rally from 13100 to 13600 + is a respectable santa rally. Lets not be too greedy. But S&P at 1496 seems to be ready to break out above 1500 so may as well be greedy. I will hang in there till the rally. Sell some of my winners. INFY from 40 to 46 made some money- am sellin half my position. YGE my sole solar play that had a roller coaster from 31 to 39 - all the way back to 26 or so... is now at 40. Having held through the ride- am selling half my position at 40. Though the chances of it going to 50 before 30 are more- technically and sentimentally- fundamentally, well solar defies that for now, so am not lookin at the earnings for now. JWN- am sellin from 34 to 37... not much but in the retail volatility I will take 3 bucks any day. Switching to COH at 31- makes sense- Buying a beaten down stock and waiting for it to rise is a good trading idea.
Financials- Citi and Bank of America holding on as they have not moved much- from our price of 31 and 41. Am thinking of adding Mer. Lynch... with the foreign infusion- a price of 53 looks good to me. Forgot to mention, during my absence WM- got stop lossed at 17. Its languishing and am not going to buy it back. I prefer Citi and BAC to be safer. FRE will start its recovery this week- maybe we get 35 and hope for more as we are in at 31.
RETAIL- am afraid things are not working out. TGT says sales-a-slowin... uh oh. Long term I still like TGT- am in at 51 and am putting order in to buy at 45- which is a far cry but who knows- a slide in retail- may get us there. As I said above, COH at 31 looks good- all is discounted- brands like Coach will survive.
In global territory, INDIA zoomed ahead 600 points in a day ahead of Christmas... when Indians welcome Christmas more furiously than they do Diwali, trust me, the sentiment is bullish all the way. And have the tables turned... where the dow follows the sensexes and shangais of the world... then we are in for a green end to 2007!
MERRY CHRISTMAS... and THANKS for reading. Mona's aplogies for not bloggin every day- will be back with a blog-a-day next year. Meanwhile happy trading, dont miss out the last 4 days of trading- they tend to make a lot of money- following Santa's happy trail.
Stay tuned as my crystal ball looks for more... tips and thoughts to share with ya.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Monday, December 17, 2007
Throwing in the towel?
Not a chance. We took a long break on monas madmarket. Apologies to my readers who are few and far between still loyally following my tips. Fed spoke and fed cut on December 11 and the market was unhappy and dissatisfied. They cut rate by 25 basis though the market was expecting 50 basis. The statement did not say anything about future rate cuts. So its going to be a down market until the January meeting. Its as simple as that. And for us its time to buy on these deadly dips. Last week when the housing and finance stocks broke out - I did manage to sell DHI at 14.7 and KBH at 25 for a good profit. Citi sold again at 35. Bought some Citi at 31 -unbelievable- nothings changed and we got a good buying opportunity. Am adding Bank of America at 41- looks like the sky is falling... thats when we buy. COH and TGT on the retail side look good. Recession is priced into retail... COH at 33 and TGT at 51 are good for trades. EBAY -the online auctioneer -looks good at 32. Wow this market is a trader paradise.
Maybe the market rallied too far too fast- and so the decline is furious as well. We will watch for DOW 13000 once more- it will hold and we are off again for the rest-of-the- year-end-rally. The markets world over are falling freely too- Indian sensex fell 700 + points the 2nd worst decline- nothin to do with fudnamentals- just went up too fast - once it corrects- 10% it will be off to a new start- again. Got to like the volatility but also got to be brave and hang in there. Thank God for the selling we do so we are ready to buy when opportunities like this come by.
Stay tuned and nibble at financials is my word for today. Citi at 31 and BAC at 41-42 to start with and FREDDIE MAC- at 31 are bargains in my view- ! I also like LOW at 22 - for a longer term- sure target of 30... and shorter term 25 is easy once the market settles down to a better trading range. Wait for the DOW to hold support at 13000 and S& P around 1400... NASDAQ is ready to go from here 2570 or so... ! Whats to not buy- recession is priced in too....
Maybe the market rallied too far too fast- and so the decline is furious as well. We will watch for DOW 13000 once more- it will hold and we are off again for the rest-of-the- year-end-rally. The markets world over are falling freely too- Indian sensex fell 700 + points the 2nd worst decline- nothin to do with fudnamentals- just went up too fast - once it corrects- 10% it will be off to a new start- again. Got to like the volatility but also got to be brave and hang in there. Thank God for the selling we do so we are ready to buy when opportunities like this come by.
Stay tuned and nibble at financials is my word for today. Citi at 31 and BAC at 41-42 to start with and FREDDIE MAC- at 31 are bargains in my view- ! I also like LOW at 22 - for a longer term- sure target of 30... and shorter term 25 is easy once the market settles down to a better trading range. Wait for the DOW to hold support at 13000 and S& P around 1400... NASDAQ is ready to go from here 2570 or so... ! Whats to not buy- recession is priced in too....
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
LACKs LUSTRE ... till FED MEETs
Yawn... nothin spectacular. No major opportunity. We are consolidating and digesting the recent gains ere we move again- higher if the Fed cuts next week. We are sticking to the financials- Citi and Washington Mutual. Am adding some more WM at 18.30- got to time it well. Target price low 20s is good for me. Technology sector is still waiting for catalysts. Some of the valuations seem good enough to pull the trigger. We are in BRCM, NTAP, VCLK- and OVTI.
Freddie Mac made good money for us- from 31 to 35. Today got a chance to buy again at 31- very easy to buy the second time as we know when it bounces back it goes at least to 35. That makes a good trade. So we are in there. Theres no reason for it to trade down so much. Just profit taking by those who got in last week at much lower prices. This and Fannie Mae were crushed too badly in my opinion and are buys.
On the mortgage front, the word is that they are trying to bail out the unfortunate homeowners who may suffer a foreclosure- by freezin the rates on the adjustable mortgage which means that those who can afford their current mortgage rates will not have to give up their homes.
If such proposals have seriously started flowing, to my mind something will work out and its positive news. The reaction to such news I thought would be more spectacular. Homebuilders and banks are a buy in my opinion. I would say not just for a trade, for a longer term 2008 will be kinder to homebuilders. Am looking for home prices to fall further and then bargain hunters and home buyers do come in and finally buy instead of renting. Demand picks up and things start looking better- hope springs eternal in Mona's world. IN KBH at 19 and 21. Its 20.4 today. In DHI at average price of 12. Its about 12.20.
Thats it for now... employment numbers comin up this week- a low number would only prompt the fed to ease rates next week- so bad news will be good news. We will see.
Volatility is low again. We retested the August lows. Going into the end of the year, stocks look like a good place to be. So hang in there.
Freddie Mac made good money for us- from 31 to 35. Today got a chance to buy again at 31- very easy to buy the second time as we know when it bounces back it goes at least to 35. That makes a good trade. So we are in there. Theres no reason for it to trade down so much. Just profit taking by those who got in last week at much lower prices. This and Fannie Mae were crushed too badly in my opinion and are buys.
On the mortgage front, the word is that they are trying to bail out the unfortunate homeowners who may suffer a foreclosure- by freezin the rates on the adjustable mortgage which means that those who can afford their current mortgage rates will not have to give up their homes.
If such proposals have seriously started flowing, to my mind something will work out and its positive news. The reaction to such news I thought would be more spectacular. Homebuilders and banks are a buy in my opinion. I would say not just for a trade, for a longer term 2008 will be kinder to homebuilders. Am looking for home prices to fall further and then bargain hunters and home buyers do come in and finally buy instead of renting. Demand picks up and things start looking better- hope springs eternal in Mona's world. IN KBH at 19 and 21. Its 20.4 today. In DHI at average price of 12. Its about 12.20.
Thats it for now... employment numbers comin up this week- a low number would only prompt the fed to ease rates next week- so bad news will be good news. We will see.
Volatility is low again. We retested the August lows. Going into the end of the year, stocks look like a good place to be. So hang in there.
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